BTCUSD - H4 - STILL IN A CORRECTIVE MOVE...
H4 :
Recent and current price action is still in a corrective recovery move and currently still below the H4 clouds, attempting to upside breakout the secondary downtrend line resistance.
In its recent move, the BTCUSD, as expected, already reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement (50'800 - 45'750) @ 48'275 which also, should be seen as the first pivot level for further development.
Indeed, 48'375 is currently, roughly the level of the Mid Bollinger Band which also coincides with the current level of the secondary downtrend line resistance.
Last H4 pattern triggered a "DOJI" pattern =uncertainty & indecision with its closing level @ 48'280 = Kijun-Sen !!!
Ongoing and next H4 period (on a cloisng basis) should give more clues about the upcoming price action with the following implications :
R3 : 50'800 (FH Dec 12th)
R2 : 49'720-50'000 (78.6% Fib ret & clouds top)
R1 : 48'870 (61.8% Fib ret)
Currrent level : 48'171
S1 : 47'510 (Tenkan-Sen & Conversion line)
S2. : 46'650 (ongoing support trend line)
S3 : 45'750 (FH Dec 13th)
A failure to stay and hold above 45'750 would put the focus on the former low around the 42'000 area.
RSI just above the 50.00 @ 50.18 !
DAILY :
Following the white candle triggered yesterday, the BTCUSD is still below the Tenkan-Sen and did not manage to close above the middle of the previous long black candle and therefore, missed to trigger
a piercing line pattern !
For the time being, in the daily time frame, no change in my bearish view calling for lower level
Only a sustainable move (DAILY CLOSING !) above both Kijun-Sen & Base line (51'029) and the ongoing daily downtrend resistance line, currently @ 51'800, would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario.
HOURLY :
Several clouds upside breakouts attempts without success for the time being; indeed, after having reached, a couple of hours ago, an intraday high of 48'773 (very close to the 61.8% Fib ret @ 48'870), the BTCUSD went down again and tested
the clouds area again.
In this H1 time frame, I would suggest to watch the clouds and the Tenkan-Sen as a support level area as a failure to stay above the clouds, would open the door for the ongoing H1 support trend line (around 47'500) which is also the cluster "MBB and KS".
CONCLUSION .
The BTCUSD is not out of the woods yet...
Have a nice trading day.
All the best.
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
Recent and current price action is still in a corrective recovery move and currently still below the H4 clouds, attempting to upside breakout the secondary downtrend line resistance.
In its recent move, the BTCUSD, as expected, already reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement (50'800 - 45'750) @ 48'275 which also, should be seen as the first pivot level for further development.
Indeed, 48'375 is currently, roughly the level of the Mid Bollinger Band which also coincides with the current level of the secondary downtrend line resistance.
Last H4 pattern triggered a "DOJI" pattern =uncertainty & indecision with its closing level @ 48'280 = Kijun-Sen !!!
Ongoing and next H4 period (on a cloisng basis) should give more clues about the upcoming price action with the following implications :
R3 : 50'800 (FH Dec 12th)
R2 : 49'720-50'000 (78.6% Fib ret & clouds top)
R1 : 48'870 (61.8% Fib ret)
Currrent level : 48'171
S1 : 47'510 (Tenkan-Sen & Conversion line)
S2. : 46'650 (ongoing support trend line)
S3 : 45'750 (FH Dec 13th)
A failure to stay and hold above 45'750 would put the focus on the former low around the 42'000 area.
RSI just above the 50.00 @ 50.18 !
DAILY :
Following the white candle triggered yesterday, the BTCUSD is still below the Tenkan-Sen and did not manage to close above the middle of the previous long black candle and therefore, missed to trigger
a piercing line pattern !
For the time being, in the daily time frame, no change in my bearish view calling for lower level
Only a sustainable move (DAILY CLOSING !) above both Kijun-Sen & Base line (51'029) and the ongoing daily downtrend resistance line, currently @ 51'800, would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario.
HOURLY :
Several clouds upside breakouts attempts without success for the time being; indeed, after having reached, a couple of hours ago, an intraday high of 48'773 (very close to the 61.8% Fib ret @ 48'870), the BTCUSD went down again and tested
the clouds area again.
In this H1 time frame, I would suggest to watch the clouds and the Tenkan-Sen as a support level area as a failure to stay above the clouds, would open the door for the ongoing H1 support trend line (around 47'500) which is also the cluster "MBB and KS".
CONCLUSION .
The BTCUSD is not out of the woods yet...
Have a nice trading day.
All the best.
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
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