Long-term Bear Market Forecast
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Your favorite fractal master, Bitcoin Guru is back! Missed you all, really! We have been super busy at Bitcoin Guru after our successful Bitcoin Megabull /Bull Market (almost a year now!). We also have been actively tied up in providing daily trading TA and giving signals on more than 30-40 cryptocurrencies (ALTS and TOKENS PAIRS) to our lovely members/subscribers. So, check our Tradingview portfolio for our Twitter and Website handles or PM us for more questions! We also offer cryptocurrencies trading courses.
Follow us and like our charts on Tradingview and Twitter! Stay in touch! We promise to be more active on Tradingview and giveaway more professional Trading Analysis weekly or daily on many ALTS or TOKEN pairs we typically cover closed door.
That said, lets now dive in on a detailed and real analysis of the current Bitcoin Bear Market:
Currently, we have a big move pending in either direction based on the Bollinger Bands squeezing tight on all the time-frames and our custom Guru cycle indicator. Our indicator indicates that the current short-term bull cycle ends on February 27 and we start a new Cycle right after that ends on March 21st (notice the 21 Fibonacci number - not a coincidence). That said we expect a BIG MOVE in either direction that will be determined maximum before March 10. We are currently unsure if the sentiment of the new cycle is bullish or bearish or neutral /consolidation. But since we are in a Bear Market we will lean to bearish for the new cycle until proven otherwise and sell the top of the bearish channel and major resistances until the bullish reversal confirms.
The current chart carefully and precisely depicts a blue overlay/projection using the 2014 Bear Market. As you see it overlays perfectly well at the moment with the bear channel of the current Bitcoin Market and even the descending triangles.
Of course, we do not expect the current Bear Market to play exactly as the 2014 one although history tends to somehow repeat itself at some level. Hence, we have represented several scenarios with major resistance and support levels:
BULLS:
We have depicted several bullish reversal possibilities (in green) through two Inverted Head and Shoulders (IH&S) patterns on the chart. These will seek to cancel the larger bearish reversal patterns such as double top (at $19,000 and $17,500) and also the larger Head and Shoulders ( H&S ) pattern both seen around December 2017 when the Bitcoin Megabull ended. With any of these two bullish reversals, we would be looking for the Megabull to resume few months down the road. Note that the deeper Bitcoin goes, the longer the bear market will last and the long the Bitcoin Bull Market will take to resume.
The first IH&S we have been observing since January 2018 needs to complete its last shoulder by rallying to $11,700-12,000 resistance, but before this happens we have a minefield of bearish obstacles to beat:
(1) bottoming at $9300-9250 roughly (completed as of now)
(2) then complete a break out from the mini falling wedge by breaking $9,800 (not represented on this chart)
(3) break out past horizontal resistances at $10,200-10,500 and $10,700-11,200
(4) break out the top of the bearish parallel channel
The second IH&S would complete by drawing the two shoulders through the $6,600-6,000 area then the head through the $5,600-5,000 support with a potential wick deeper through the $4,400-4,200 previous support
BEARS:
We have also represented potential bottoms/support areas for the Bear Market. Should the 1D midband at $9,300-9,200 fail within the next few weeks, then look lower at:
$6,600-6,000 (interim support)
$5,600-5,000 (potential final bottom for the current bear market)
$4,400-4,200 (in case of bad news and accelerated sell off, this would be our projected potential final bottom)
$2,700 (low chance of occurrence as Bitcoin has gone mainstream)
Follow us and like our charts on Tradingview and Twitter! Stay in touch! We promise to be more active on Tradingview and giveaway more professional Trading Analysis weekly or daily on many ALTS or TOKEN pairs we typically cover closed door.
That said, lets now dive in on a detailed and real analysis of the current Bitcoin Bear Market:
Currently, we have a big move pending in either direction based on the Bollinger Bands squeezing tight on all the time-frames and our custom Guru cycle indicator. Our indicator indicates that the current short-term bull cycle ends on February 27 and we start a new Cycle right after that ends on March 21st (notice the 21 Fibonacci number - not a coincidence). That said we expect a BIG MOVE in either direction that will be determined maximum before March 10. We are currently unsure if the sentiment of the new cycle is bullish or bearish or neutral /consolidation. But since we are in a Bear Market we will lean to bearish for the new cycle until proven otherwise and sell the top of the bearish channel and major resistances until the bullish reversal confirms.
The current chart carefully and precisely depicts a blue overlay/projection using the 2014 Bear Market. As you see it overlays perfectly well at the moment with the bear channel of the current Bitcoin Market and even the descending triangles.
Of course, we do not expect the current Bear Market to play exactly as the 2014 one although history tends to somehow repeat itself at some level. Hence, we have represented several scenarios with major resistance and support levels:
BULLS:
We have depicted several bullish reversal possibilities (in green) through two Inverted Head and Shoulders (IH&S) patterns on the chart. These will seek to cancel the larger bearish reversal patterns such as double top (at $19,000 and $17,500) and also the larger Head and Shoulders ( H&S ) pattern both seen around December 2017 when the Bitcoin Megabull ended. With any of these two bullish reversals, we would be looking for the Megabull to resume few months down the road. Note that the deeper Bitcoin goes, the longer the bear market will last and the long the Bitcoin Bull Market will take to resume.
The first IH&S we have been observing since January 2018 needs to complete its last shoulder by rallying to $11,700-12,000 resistance, but before this happens we have a minefield of bearish obstacles to beat:
(1) bottoming at $9300-9250 roughly (completed as of now)
(2) then complete a break out from the mini falling wedge by breaking $9,800 (not represented on this chart)
(3) break out past horizontal resistances at $10,200-10,500 and $10,700-11,200
(4) break out the top of the bearish parallel channel
The second IH&S would complete by drawing the two shoulders through the $6,600-6,000 area then the head through the $5,600-5,000 support with a potential wick deeper through the $4,400-4,200 previous support
BEARS:
We have also represented potential bottoms/support areas for the Bear Market. Should the 1D midband at $9,300-9,200 fail within the next few weeks, then look lower at:
$6,600-6,000 (interim support)
$5,600-5,000 (potential final bottom for the current bear market)
$4,400-4,200 (in case of bad news and accelerated sell off, this would be our projected potential final bottom)
$2,700 (low chance of occurrence as Bitcoin has gone mainstream)
Trade ist aktiv
The Short-Term 4H Chart also published on Tradingview here! 
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