On Bitcoins impending Death Cross

13. Jan. 2022

BTC Death Cross History & Thesis

A death cross is defined as: when the 50 day moving average drops below the 200 day moving average.

Based on history going back to 2014, after entering a death cross BTC prices dropped as follows before recovering, prices and percentages are slightly approximate but fairly accurate:

Entered Death Cross
19 Jun '21 price 36525
price dropped -19.16% to 29528 on 20 Jul '21

Entered Death Cross
25 Mar '20 price 6968
price dropped -15.9% to 5861 on 30 Mar '20

Entered Death Cross
26 Oct '19 price 10530
price dropped -39% to 6436 on 18 Dec '19

Entered Death Cross
30 Mar '18 price 7281
price dropped -57% to 3132 on 15 Dec '18

Entered Death Cross (Double)
03 Sep '14 price 483
price dropped -66% to 166 on 18 Aug '15
14 Sep '15 price 233
price dropped -3.7% on 22 Sep '15 to 224

Average post death cross drawdown percentage using history back to 03 Sep '14 is -33.46%.

Using the average drawdown percentage would the upcoming post death cross drawdown price at 29131.21 USD, using the current price of BTC in USD as I write this. There is also a support line at 29641 extending back to Jan '21.

The Math:
33.46% of 43780 is 14648.79
43780 - 14648.79 = 29131.21

Conclusion:
A more mild drawdown say using the 25 Mar '20 drawdown percentage of -15.9% (6961.02) would put the upcoming post death cross drawdown of BTC to 36818.98 USD. The upcoming post death cross drawdown price of sub 40k seems likely.

This is not investment advice, the preceding text is only the opinion of the author and is to be used to information purposes only. Please do your own research before trading.