So we got a move, but not to the direction I was hoping for...BTC has taken a dive on Monday. Testing and spiking below 20 daily EMA. Even though, not too long ago, we have seen 20% range days without any substantial consequence, today a 5% drop means something significant. It's all about the price structure. If we see a daily close below 20 daily EMA, that may not spell good news for BTC at this moment. Is the game over then? Well, not yet, it's not. Let's take a look.
1. BTC is doing a real test of daily 20 EMA. A close below today may open up possibility of testing 50 SMA.
2. 50 daily SMA is crossing over 50 daily EMA once again. It's not a bearish sign, since both are at over 45 degree angle to the upside. But it means the price is under sell pressure.
3. If price makes a quick dive to 50 SMA, gains support and jumps back over 20 EMA, it'll be go time.
4. Price can also float down and let 50 SMA catch up to it in the next weeks or so. That will also reset the pressure to the upside.
5. .382 Fib level is usually a great place for market to reverse. Need to watch how fast the price moves. Slow down move will be a very positive sign. A fast move might get things shaky.
6. ADX/DI indicator showing sell pressure increasing. DI plus is still in control, but DI minus is picking up as ADX is flattening. This could mean a longer form consolidation/correction rather than a game over move.
7. Volume is still flat. So this sell off looks to be profit taking still. Until the 50-49 k level breaks it could be another re-accumulation before lift off again.
I will make my bag a little lighter for now and look for a better price point to load up again. A daily close below 49 k will get me out completely. Good luck out there.
1. BTC is doing a real test of daily 20 EMA. A close below today may open up possibility of testing 50 SMA.
2. 50 daily SMA is crossing over 50 daily EMA once again. It's not a bearish sign, since both are at over 45 degree angle to the upside. But it means the price is under sell pressure.
3. If price makes a quick dive to 50 SMA, gains support and jumps back over 20 EMA, it'll be go time.
4. Price can also float down and let 50 SMA catch up to it in the next weeks or so. That will also reset the pressure to the upside.
5. .382 Fib level is usually a great place for market to reverse. Need to watch how fast the price moves. Slow down move will be a very positive sign. A fast move might get things shaky.
6. ADX/DI indicator showing sell pressure increasing. DI plus is still in control, but DI minus is picking up as ADX is flattening. This could mean a longer form consolidation/correction rather than a game over move.
7. Volume is still flat. So this sell off looks to be profit taking still. Until the 50-49 k level breaks it could be another re-accumulation before lift off again.
I will make my bag a little lighter for now and look for a better price point to load up again. A daily close below 49 k will get me out completely. Good luck out there.
