BitcoinLong
BTC Long Term Outlook- Halving, Benner cycle & Macro Analysis
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Check out these meme lines.
Halvings:
Purple lines are historical and future halvings. 1-2 months prior to and after each halving there is a mild decay or sideways (buy the rumor sell the news effect).
Entry:
Orange lines are prior price support ($33456, $39640). The white diagonal lines are midterm trend support.
Low risk entry: Entry anywhere along the white lines, if they coincide with an orange line, could be a strong buying opportunity, pending increased daily volume.
Higher risk: Entry at current prices and hodl OR anywhere on the orange line BEFORE it coincides with the white diagonal line.
Exit:
Red curves provide cyclical resistance. They provide strong exit positions.
A premature exit of 100k could also be taken given its psychological significance and likelihood. 2-10% above is also a good premature exit given the probability of overshooting due to FOMO. These two are minimum exit positions.
A breach beyond the red curves would imply either a rapidly lowering of rates and wanton printing and/or widespread failure of confidence in economic/political/social systems, in which case holding until the horizontal red lines would take effect ($127630, $193169, $267173).
Invalidation:
A monthly close under the white horizontal lines ($19727, $25039), with a proceeding weekly close remaining at the same level, will invalidate the strong BTC bull. This is unlikely. If it does wick down, I expect a recovery within 7 days.
Benner cycle:
The meme tier “Agriculture Benner cycle” is also worth considering. This stipulates a crash in 2026. The Benner cycle is often 1 year premature which is why I have drawn a range of 2026-2027 with the two white columns.
Macro analysis:
Gold market cap: 13.1t
Global crypto market cap 1.7t
BTC market cap 840m
The global crypto market cap may reach x7 to that of Gold’s market cap. At a ~40% BTC dominance, this creates a ~250k BTC.
BTC is an emerging asset and in economic recessions, technology performs badly without the infinite M2 hack. Also, Senator Warren’s recently proposed Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act 2022, targeting privacy platforms and strengthening KYC requirements for legally illusory, “unhosted wallet providers,” inducing bears to take a bite out of the bull this past week.
However, this bearishness will likely correct as market regulation clarifies itself and persisting crypto narratives increasingly parrot “digital gold”, “be your own bank”, “lessen your vulnerability to bank bail-ins”, “institutional infrastructure” (ETFs and pensions) and the myriad of shitcoin narratives (“defi, NFTs, gamefi, decentralized social media/storage”), likely overpowering investor trepidation in an increasingly unstable environment (economically, socially, politically), where non-institutional and institutional investors seek fresh memes, dreams and alternative emerging asset classes outside the traditional economic purview, to cope with an increasingly negative worldview. Also note the recent dovish FED meetings and the reflection of ~4 25bp rate cuts implied by US rate futures; perhaps a cosy foreshadowing of a 2024 BRRRRRRRRRRRRR printing session to help bulls march onwards.
The BTC cyclical MAXIMUM will likely be ~13.1t market cap which is ~x16 creating a ~670k BTC by 2026-2027. This is less likely and relies on the total loss of mainstream confidence in the international financial system or a large decline in rates + money printing. If this does happen, it could peak, trap moontards hoping for the mystical 1mm BTC before 2026 and inflict yet another dreary 3y correction.
DISCLAIMER: The above is educational/entertainment, not financial advice.
Halvings:
Purple lines are historical and future halvings. 1-2 months prior to and after each halving there is a mild decay or sideways (buy the rumor sell the news effect).
Entry:
Orange lines are prior price support ($33456, $39640). The white diagonal lines are midterm trend support.
Low risk entry: Entry anywhere along the white lines, if they coincide with an orange line, could be a strong buying opportunity, pending increased daily volume.
Higher risk: Entry at current prices and hodl OR anywhere on the orange line BEFORE it coincides with the white diagonal line.
Exit:
Red curves provide cyclical resistance. They provide strong exit positions.
A premature exit of 100k could also be taken given its psychological significance and likelihood. 2-10% above is also a good premature exit given the probability of overshooting due to FOMO. These two are minimum exit positions.
A breach beyond the red curves would imply either a rapidly lowering of rates and wanton printing and/or widespread failure of confidence in economic/political/social systems, in which case holding until the horizontal red lines would take effect ($127630, $193169, $267173).
Invalidation:
A monthly close under the white horizontal lines ($19727, $25039), with a proceeding weekly close remaining at the same level, will invalidate the strong BTC bull. This is unlikely. If it does wick down, I expect a recovery within 7 days.
Benner cycle:
The meme tier “Agriculture Benner cycle” is also worth considering. This stipulates a crash in 2026. The Benner cycle is often 1 year premature which is why I have drawn a range of 2026-2027 with the two white columns.
Macro analysis:
Gold market cap: 13.1t
Global crypto market cap 1.7t
BTC market cap 840m
The global crypto market cap may reach x7 to that of Gold’s market cap. At a ~40% BTC dominance, this creates a ~250k BTC.
BTC is an emerging asset and in economic recessions, technology performs badly without the infinite M2 hack. Also, Senator Warren’s recently proposed Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act 2022, targeting privacy platforms and strengthening KYC requirements for legally illusory, “unhosted wallet providers,” inducing bears to take a bite out of the bull this past week.
However, this bearishness will likely correct as market regulation clarifies itself and persisting crypto narratives increasingly parrot “digital gold”, “be your own bank”, “lessen your vulnerability to bank bail-ins”, “institutional infrastructure” (ETFs and pensions) and the myriad of shitcoin narratives (“defi, NFTs, gamefi, decentralized social media/storage”), likely overpowering investor trepidation in an increasingly unstable environment (economically, socially, politically), where non-institutional and institutional investors seek fresh memes, dreams and alternative emerging asset classes outside the traditional economic purview, to cope with an increasingly negative worldview. Also note the recent dovish FED meetings and the reflection of ~4 25bp rate cuts implied by US rate futures; perhaps a cosy foreshadowing of a 2024 BRRRRRRRRRRRRR printing session to help bulls march onwards.
The BTC cyclical MAXIMUM will likely be ~13.1t market cap which is ~x16 creating a ~670k BTC by 2026-2027. This is less likely and relies on the total loss of mainstream confidence in the international financial system or a large decline in rates + money printing. If this does happen, it could peak, trap moontards hoping for the mystical 1mm BTC before 2026 and inflict yet another dreary 3y correction.
DISCLAIMER: The above is educational/entertainment, not financial advice.
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