BTCUSD - Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic Waiting for Confirmation
Trading View's platform usually scrunches up the cover chart for the publication. Hence, the reason I'm pasting it below for easier reading and to be viewed as I see it on my monitor.
I thought it was time for a new publication. The previous publication for BTCUSD was getting rather long. I also labeled this publication (NEUTRAL) until we see a definitive confirmation we are in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1. What will "confirm" our analysis?
1. Not falling below $4,350.00
2. An immediate rally upward and back down to TEST the lower boundary of the trading range. However, this particular signal is not mandatory.
3. A rally back upside to the upper boundary (top) of the trading range from a TEST of Support that occurs at the lower boundary of the trading range.
4. A Sign of Strength identified by an Up Thrust above the upper boundary of the trading range.
If all four of those steps above were to occur, then YES, this will "confirm" our analysis of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.
The following link is an image to provide an example of one type of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1: i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png
Below, are two links with further information on the EVENTS TO OCCUR WITHIN SCHEMATICS. Both were put together well in a short synopsis of Wyckoff Schematics:
stockcharts.com...school/doku.php?id=chart_s...
stockcharts.com...school/doku.php?id=chart_s...
FREE Books by Wyckoff can be found here. However, make sure to scroll down till you see the name, Richard Wyckoff. MANY other books on trading can be found here as well. Excellent source of trading material FREE online: www.traders-software.com/Trading Books/
As I mentioned in a text bubble in the chart above, "If we fall below $4,350, this might mean we were in Phase E of a Distribution Schematic all along. This would also mean we would be on the lookout for a Selling Climax to mark the beginning of an Accumulation Schematic with Phase A. If we look at most all the alt-coins, they too appear primed for a reversal to the upside. Which makes me find it hard to believe that Bitcoin would fall down further into a Selling Climax to start Phase A of an Accumulation Schematic. I suppose it's possible for Bitcoin to continue down while alt-coins reverse and pump up. Which would label 2018 as, "The Year for the Alts."
My indicators in the 4-Day, 5-Day, 6-Day and 7-Day are all still showing we are definitely at or very near the bottom and primed for a potential reversal to the upside. Does this mean we must reverse definitively to the upside shortly? Unfortunately, No! It simply means the odds are HIGH for a reversal to the upside but sometimes the high odds lose to market makers who decide to manipulate the market in a different way for various reasons.
Unfortunately, we have another market "Behind the scenes" that offers big blocks of bitcoin at discount prices. This allows BIG money to purchase 1,000 Bitcoin or more at $5,000 each (currently). Then in turn, they can sell those coins on the public exchanges for a profit WHILE ALSO devaluing bitcoin to allow them to accumulate more at lower prices. However, those with big money doing this are also running the risk of others with big money purchasing large blocks off public exchanges at a discount and then push the price up on the markets available to average retail investors to sell at a much higher price point later for premium profits. So, there's a risk involved in both markets (on and off public retail exchanges).
Point is: Don't assume accumulation only occurs in the price action we see on public exchanges for retail investors. A lot is also going on behind the scenes. Let's be patient (as hard as that may be) and wait to see if our analysis of an Accumulation Schematic is confirmed.
Happy Trading.
I thought it was time for a new publication. The previous publication for BTCUSD was getting rather long. I also labeled this publication (NEUTRAL) until we see a definitive confirmation we are in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1. What will "confirm" our analysis?
1. Not falling below $4,350.00
2. An immediate rally upward and back down to TEST the lower boundary of the trading range. However, this particular signal is not mandatory.
3. A rally back upside to the upper boundary (top) of the trading range from a TEST of Support that occurs at the lower boundary of the trading range.
4. A Sign of Strength identified by an Up Thrust above the upper boundary of the trading range.
If all four of those steps above were to occur, then YES, this will "confirm" our analysis of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.
The following link is an image to provide an example of one type of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1: i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png
Below, are two links with further information on the EVENTS TO OCCUR WITHIN SCHEMATICS. Both were put together well in a short synopsis of Wyckoff Schematics:
stockcharts.com...school/doku.php?id=chart_s...
stockcharts.com...school/doku.php?id=chart_s...
FREE Books by Wyckoff can be found here. However, make sure to scroll down till you see the name, Richard Wyckoff. MANY other books on trading can be found here as well. Excellent source of trading material FREE online: www.traders-software.com/Trading Books/
As I mentioned in a text bubble in the chart above, "If we fall below $4,350, this might mean we were in Phase E of a Distribution Schematic all along. This would also mean we would be on the lookout for a Selling Climax to mark the beginning of an Accumulation Schematic with Phase A. If we look at most all the alt-coins, they too appear primed for a reversal to the upside. Which makes me find it hard to believe that Bitcoin would fall down further into a Selling Climax to start Phase A of an Accumulation Schematic. I suppose it's possible for Bitcoin to continue down while alt-coins reverse and pump up. Which would label 2018 as, "The Year for the Alts."
My indicators in the 4-Day, 5-Day, 6-Day and 7-Day are all still showing we are definitely at or very near the bottom and primed for a potential reversal to the upside. Does this mean we must reverse definitively to the upside shortly? Unfortunately, No! It simply means the odds are HIGH for a reversal to the upside but sometimes the high odds lose to market makers who decide to manipulate the market in a different way for various reasons.
Unfortunately, we have another market "Behind the scenes" that offers big blocks of bitcoin at discount prices. This allows BIG money to purchase 1,000 Bitcoin or more at $5,000 each (currently). Then in turn, they can sell those coins on the public exchanges for a profit WHILE ALSO devaluing bitcoin to allow them to accumulate more at lower prices. However, those with big money doing this are also running the risk of others with big money purchasing large blocks off public exchanges at a discount and then push the price up on the markets available to average retail investors to sell at a much higher price point later for premium profits. So, there's a risk involved in both markets (on and off public retail exchanges).
Point is: Don't assume accumulation only occurs in the price action we see on public exchanges for retail investors. A lot is also going on behind the scenes. Let's be patient (as hard as that may be) and wait to see if our analysis of an Accumulation Schematic is confirmed.
Happy Trading.
Kommentar:
I've been asked an excellent question in comments below:
"Why is $4,350 the magic number?"
I've noticed a few things in HISTORY with drops down to my 0.236 FIB's with the two coordinates in "inputs" being the ATL and ATH. I'll show you what I mean with some charts of those FIB's from history shortly.
First, have a look at my current 0.236 FIB @ $4,642.87. I said $4,350 because the price action in previous drops in history have fallen just below that 0.236 FIB when using ATL and ATH as the coordinates for the FIB.
"Why is $4,350 the magic number?"
I've noticed a few things in HISTORY with drops down to my 0.236 FIB's with the two coordinates in "inputs" being the ATL and ATH. I'll show you what I mean with some charts of those FIB's from history shortly.
First, have a look at my current 0.236 FIB @ $4,642.87. I said $4,350 because the price action in previous drops in history have fallen just below that 0.236 FIB when using ATL and ATH as the coordinates for the FIB.
Kommentar:
All of these in history at least dropped to JUST BELOW THE 0.38 FIB (when using coordinates of the FIB set for ATL @ $2.22 and whatever the ATH was at that time).
Only one of them dropped below the 0.236 FIB and that was the one with the BIGGEST INCREASED GAIN BY PERCENTAGE IN THE HISTORY OF BITCOIN. That percentage gain still remains the biggest in history.
Another chart coming shortly after this one:
Only one of them dropped below the 0.236 FIB and that was the one with the BIGGEST INCREASED GAIN BY PERCENTAGE IN THE HISTORY OF BITCOIN. That percentage gain still remains the biggest in history.
Another chart coming shortly after this one:
Kommentar:
Most all drops came right to or just above the 0.618 FIB during a Phase E of an Accumulation Schematic. ALL OF THIS IS PHASE E OF AN ACCUMULATION SCHEMATIC:
Kommentar:
When I said, "All of this is Phase E of an Accumulation Schematic," it's RE-ACCUMULATION and RE-DISTRIBUTION "on a small scale" WITHIN a LARGE PHASE E of an Accumulation Schematic.
Kommentar:
Kommentar:
If you don't believe "manipulation" occurs within the crypto market or any market for that matter, read this article from March 3, 2017:
medium.com/@PureLogi...rencies-a6b5bd716d43
medium.com/@PureLogi...rencies-a6b5bd716d43
Kommentar:
As my friend, Rakim, mentioned; I too would rather trade a manipulated market with my indicators and knowledge of Wyckoff Method.
There comes a point where those manipulating the market realize enough traders are hip to Wyckoff's teachings that it will force them to be a bit more deceptive/tricky with their tactics.
There comes a point where those manipulating the market realize enough traders are hip to Wyckoff's teachings that it will force them to be a bit more deceptive/tricky with their tactics.
Kommentar:
To elaborate on the $4,350 number being the "magic number:"
It's my "opinion" we can recover from $4,350 or higher back to the upper boundary of the trading range rather easily. That upper boundary being $9,800 to $11,400 range. If we go below $4,350, then odds are we were in Phase E of a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic all along and that drop below $4,350 would more than likely be our Selling Climax to mark the beginning of Phase A in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.
It's my "opinion" we can recover from $4,350 or higher back to the upper boundary of the trading range rather easily. That upper boundary being $9,800 to $11,400 range. If we go below $4,350, then odds are we were in Phase E of a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic all along and that drop below $4,350 would more than likely be our Selling Climax to mark the beginning of Phase A in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.
Kommentar:
Another look of WHY $4,350 being the "magic number."
Kommentar:
Simply pointing out something in HISTORY:
Kommentar:
Comparing volume in the 90m TF with previous drop in similar price range:
Kommentar:
A look at the 12h TF to allow one to see how much more time we have "potentially" before a reversal.
Kommentar:
We MUST not allow our "hopes" for a reversal and confirming a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 cloud our judgement. In other words, I want to maintain my philosophy in my "status." Which says, "SEE the value of a trade; NOT the PRECONCEIVED value of a coin."
Well, I have a "preconceived" notion of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. I cannot allow that preconception to cloud my judgement of making the proper trade.
When looking at this 14-Day (2-Week) TF, we see the Blue LSMA has more room to come down to the 20% level or lower. We "must" respect what the indicator is showing us there. Which see:
14-DAY TF:
7-DAY TF:
Well, I have a "preconceived" notion of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. I cannot allow that preconception to cloud my judgement of making the proper trade.
When looking at this 14-Day (2-Week) TF, we see the Blue LSMA has more room to come down to the 20% level or lower. We "must" respect what the indicator is showing us there. Which see:
14-DAY TF:
7-DAY TF:
Kommentar:
3-Day TF:
Kommentar:
This comment is to those who believe the Wyckoff method is inferior to their method of analysis:
The Wyckoff method BY NO MEANS is saying WE WILL do this -OR- WE WILL do that. IT SIMPLY PROVIDES SCHEMATICS TO SHOW "POSSIBILITIES" OF WHAT "COULD" HAPPEN and what to be on the look out for.
HENCE, the REASON I use indicators WITH Wyckoff's Methods to POTENTIALLY get an IDEA if a particular schematic will come to fruition -OR- if it will be rejected.
It has been my HOPE that Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 will come to fruition. It was hard to know for sure if it will when looking at the 2-Week TF a couple of months or even a month ago. NOW, as the Blue LSMA has moved in the 2-Week TF, it appears the chance of a Wyckoff Accumulations Schematic #1 "MIGHT" get rejected. Which would ALSO MEAN (As I have stated several times before) that we were in Phase E of a Distribution Schematic all along.
If it turns out we were in a Distribution Schematic all along, we would be on the look out for a Selling Climax to mark the beginning of a "NEW" Accumulation Schematic being created with a "NEW" trading range lower than the previous trading range.
So, once again: Do NOT assume Wyckoff Schematics are inferior to Elliot Wave or other Analysis; cause it's not. Wyckoff Schematics should be used AS A TOOL to help one decipher events that play out during multiple waves of distribution and accumulation on a small and large scale.
I honestly believe I'm DEMONSTRATING "how" the use of Godmode 3.1 mod with LSMA with Stochastic RSI can be used as ADDITIONAL TOOLS to help one determine if a particular Schematic may come to fruition and/or if a paricular event within a schematic is close to completion and about to reverse or be rejected.
IT's THAT SIMPLE.
So, this CRAP about implying that Wyckoff Method SAYS IT WILL DO THIS OR THAT is absolutely NOT TRUE!!! Wyckoff method did NOT say WE WILL have a Spring at THIS location. It only implies the POTENTIAL for a SPRING at this location BUT WE ARE USING INDICATORS TO DETERMINE IF THAT "POTENTIAL" IS STRONG OR WEAK.
GOT IT????
The Wyckoff method BY NO MEANS is saying WE WILL do this -OR- WE WILL do that. IT SIMPLY PROVIDES SCHEMATICS TO SHOW "POSSIBILITIES" OF WHAT "COULD" HAPPEN and what to be on the look out for.
HENCE, the REASON I use indicators WITH Wyckoff's Methods to POTENTIALLY get an IDEA if a particular schematic will come to fruition -OR- if it will be rejected.
It has been my HOPE that Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 will come to fruition. It was hard to know for sure if it will when looking at the 2-Week TF a couple of months or even a month ago. NOW, as the Blue LSMA has moved in the 2-Week TF, it appears the chance of a Wyckoff Accumulations Schematic #1 "MIGHT" get rejected. Which would ALSO MEAN (As I have stated several times before) that we were in Phase E of a Distribution Schematic all along.
If it turns out we were in a Distribution Schematic all along, we would be on the look out for a Selling Climax to mark the beginning of a "NEW" Accumulation Schematic being created with a "NEW" trading range lower than the previous trading range.
So, once again: Do NOT assume Wyckoff Schematics are inferior to Elliot Wave or other Analysis; cause it's not. Wyckoff Schematics should be used AS A TOOL to help one decipher events that play out during multiple waves of distribution and accumulation on a small and large scale.
I honestly believe I'm DEMONSTRATING "how" the use of Godmode 3.1 mod with LSMA with Stochastic RSI can be used as ADDITIONAL TOOLS to help one determine if a particular Schematic may come to fruition and/or if a paricular event within a schematic is close to completion and about to reverse or be rejected.
IT's THAT SIMPLE.
So, this CRAP about implying that Wyckoff Method SAYS IT WILL DO THIS OR THAT is absolutely NOT TRUE!!! Wyckoff method did NOT say WE WILL have a Spring at THIS location. It only implies the POTENTIAL for a SPRING at this location BUT WE ARE USING INDICATORS TO DETERMINE IF THAT "POTENTIAL" IS STRONG OR WEAK.
GOT IT????
Kommentar:
I'm simply responding to a video someone made where they IMPLIED that Wyckoff Method said, WE WILL HAVE A SPRING AT OUR CURRENT PRICE RANGE. However, THAT IS FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH.
My KNOWING Wyckoff Method is to help us identify where particular events may or may not occur and for what reason. Wyckoff Method is only ONE of several METHODS used in technical analysis. I believe those who use Elliot Wave analysis AS A TOOL would benefit by adding additional tools; such as Wyckoff Method AND MOST IMPORTANTLY Godmode 3.1 mod with LSMA and Stochastic RSI.
Some, are simply getting the wrong impression of Wyckoff Methods. He also used other tools with his schematics to determine the potential length of a bear trend and the potential beginning of an Accumulation Schematic. One of those tools he used (I'm still needing to teach myself by the way) is a Point and Figure (P&F) Count Guide. Wyckoff, was a MASTER with that tool to determine future price points and the beginning and/or end of a bull/bear trend.
My KNOWING Wyckoff Method is to help us identify where particular events may or may not occur and for what reason. Wyckoff Method is only ONE of several METHODS used in technical analysis. I believe those who use Elliot Wave analysis AS A TOOL would benefit by adding additional tools; such as Wyckoff Method AND MOST IMPORTANTLY Godmode 3.1 mod with LSMA and Stochastic RSI.
Some, are simply getting the wrong impression of Wyckoff Methods. He also used other tools with his schematics to determine the potential length of a bear trend and the potential beginning of an Accumulation Schematic. One of those tools he used (I'm still needing to teach myself by the way) is a Point and Figure (P&F) Count Guide. Wyckoff, was a MASTER with that tool to determine future price points and the beginning and/or end of a bull/bear trend.
Kommentar:
Several more Time Frames (TF's) coming...
Here is the 2-Day TF:
Here is the 2-Day TF:
Kommentar:
Having a look at past events for a moment:
Here's a look at two locations when the Blue LSMA in the Daily (1440 minutes) TF was at or below the 20% level. However, the price still dropped significantly all of a sudden by a Market Maker (One who makes the market move as they deem with the huge amount of bitcoin and/or FIAT capital under their control).
More charts with different TF's to follow...
Daily (1440m) TF:
2-Day TF:
Here's a look at two locations when the Blue LSMA in the Daily (1440 minutes) TF was at or below the 20% level. However, the price still dropped significantly all of a sudden by a Market Maker (One who makes the market move as they deem with the huge amount of bitcoin and/or FIAT capital under their control).
More charts with different TF's to follow...
Daily (1440m) TF:
2-Day TF:
Kommentar:
Before I post more TF's of current location. I simply want to mention those two dumps in the past occurred out of the blue at KEY support levels when downward pressure APPEARED exhausted. THAT is what I'm concerned about at our current location.
I'll post more TF's shortly...
I'll post more TF's shortly...
Kommentar:
New 12h (720m) candle just began a half hour ago. I wanted to wait for that new candle and the indicators to update themselves before posting lower Time Frames.
12h (720m) TF:
12h (720m) TF:
Kommentar:
360m (6h) TF:
Kommentar:
Wow!!!
I go out for an evening walk with my wife and son; only to come back and find a surprise. The surprise being that red line showing a bullish signal in the 360m TF.
I go out for an evening walk with my wife and son; only to come back and find a surprise. The surprise being that red line showing a bullish signal in the 360m TF.
Kommentar:
If you have not made entry yet, the 45m, 90m, 180m and 360m are good time frames to use for entry.
Kommentar:
Note the Blue LSMA in the 45m TF above shows "potential to come back down to make potential entry.
Kommentar:
If we look at the 2-Day TF, we see this actually has a good chance of being a Spring. The reason I'm saying this is because of the location of both the Red Line and the Blue LSMA "WHEN" they touched a Green Line "WHILE" the Green Line was moving UPWARD.
We still have to be careful not to allow the Composite Group fool us into thinking this is it and it only ends up being a bear trap. With that said, I still like what I'm seeing thus far.
Happy Trading!
We still have to be careful not to allow the Composite Group fool us into thinking this is it and it only ends up being a bear trap. With that said, I still like what I'm seeing thus far.
Happy Trading!
Kommentar:
Someone asked me the following question:
"Hi, thank you for the frequent updates! I have a question, when will we know if we are in a acummulation schematic, as oppossed to a distribution one, when price breaks a certain pricepoint, 7900-8000 maybe?"
My response:
I'm not going to wait for the price to get that high ($7,900-$8,000) before getting in. I simply use my indicators in conjunction with my Wyckoff analysis. If I'm wrong, that's what stop loss and/or alarms are for. To keep losses small and gains large.
It's a matter of keeping yourself in the game like I do with bets in "thirds" (3rd's) of what you're willing to trade in EACH coin. For example:
I made entry with one third of what I'm willing to trade in bitcoin at $6,050 the first time we came down then back up.
I kept the other two thirds in reserve for a potential dip and potential breakout to the upside. Well, we got the second dip (That could be our TEST by the way) and I bought in again on that dip at $5,880. That leaves me one more third remaining.
It's a matter of "Going with your analysis." If it's proved wrong, you should have safeguards in place to keep your losses small. Then re-evaluate what has occurred to TRY to come up with the proper analysis for what may come into play next.
I'm still leaning towards this being our Spring. I was beginning to get worried if we didn't see something like we just saw with this pump to $6,400.
The Wyckoff Spring still isn't in the bag quite yet in regards to "CONFIRMED." We should expect a TEST of Support once more before going up. It's still POSSIBLE this could be a bull trap to load up some Margin Longs in the books; only to liquidate them later. So, be careful.
It's also possible we may have already had our Spring and Test. I'm about to get to looking at the charts shortly to determine where a potential "test" might occur when looking at Godmode indicator.
If you have not made entry yet, you might want to wait for a decent dip coming down. In other words, wait on a good dip when looking at the 4h or 6h TF's. Use even lower TF's to try to find a more precise entry.
"Hi, thank you for the frequent updates! I have a question, when will we know if we are in a acummulation schematic, as oppossed to a distribution one, when price breaks a certain pricepoint, 7900-8000 maybe?"
My response:
I'm not going to wait for the price to get that high ($7,900-$8,000) before getting in. I simply use my indicators in conjunction with my Wyckoff analysis. If I'm wrong, that's what stop loss and/or alarms are for. To keep losses small and gains large.
It's a matter of keeping yourself in the game like I do with bets in "thirds" (3rd's) of what you're willing to trade in EACH coin. For example:
I made entry with one third of what I'm willing to trade in bitcoin at $6,050 the first time we came down then back up.
I kept the other two thirds in reserve for a potential dip and potential breakout to the upside. Well, we got the second dip (That could be our TEST by the way) and I bought in again on that dip at $5,880. That leaves me one more third remaining.
It's a matter of "Going with your analysis." If it's proved wrong, you should have safeguards in place to keep your losses small. Then re-evaluate what has occurred to TRY to come up with the proper analysis for what may come into play next.
I'm still leaning towards this being our Spring. I was beginning to get worried if we didn't see something like we just saw with this pump to $6,400.
The Wyckoff Spring still isn't in the bag quite yet in regards to "CONFIRMED." We should expect a TEST of Support once more before going up. It's still POSSIBLE this could be a bull trap to load up some Margin Longs in the books; only to liquidate them later. So, be careful.
It's also possible we may have already had our Spring and Test. I'm about to get to looking at the charts shortly to determine where a potential "test" might occur when looking at Godmode indicator.
If you have not made entry yet, you might want to wait for a decent dip coming down. In other words, wait on a good dip when looking at the 4h or 6h TF's. Use even lower TF's to try to find a more precise entry.
Kommentar:
In regards to, "Was this our Spring with a Test afterwards?"
Let's wait and see what occurs here when looking at the 90m (1.5h), 180m (3h) and 360m (6h) Time Frames (TF's) to see what occurs when they all max out at 80% or higher. If we maintain a higher low, then we'll go to the next higher TF's. Such as the 720m (12h), 1080m (18h) and 1440m (24h) TF's to see what occurs when they max out at the 80% level or higher.
Here's the 90m, 180m and 360m TF's: You see the Red line above 80% level and touched the Green Line WHILE the Green Line is going down. Now, lets simply OBSERVE.
Let's wait and see what occurs here when looking at the 90m (1.5h), 180m (3h) and 360m (6h) Time Frames (TF's) to see what occurs when they all max out at 80% or higher. If we maintain a higher low, then we'll go to the next higher TF's. Such as the 720m (12h), 1080m (18h) and 1440m (24h) TF's to see what occurs when they max out at the 80% level or higher.
Here's the 90m, 180m and 360m TF's: You see the Red line above 80% level and touched the Green Line WHILE the Green Line is going down. Now, lets simply OBSERVE.
Kommentar:
In case you're wondering why I said in the previous post, "Now, lets simply OBSERVE." It would have been dangerous to swing trade by planning to short where we saw the Red Line touching a Green Line "WHILE" the Green Line was going down.
Why would it have been dangerous (risky) to short/sell where the Red Line touched the Green Line WHILE the Green Line was going down?
If we are in a BULL TREND, our moves to the upside will be much more dramatic than our moves down WHILE "TRENDING" BULL. You would be risking your short/sell getting squeezed and have to jump back in again (losing coins). I'm the type to simply sit back, pause and observe when we are in the process of a potential MAJOR reversal. My opinion...
Here's what the 45m, 90m and 180m look like after 2 hours have passed:
Why would it have been dangerous (risky) to short/sell where the Red Line touched the Green Line WHILE the Green Line was going down?
If we are in a BULL TREND, our moves to the upside will be much more dramatic than our moves down WHILE "TRENDING" BULL. You would be risking your short/sell getting squeezed and have to jump back in again (losing coins). I'm the type to simply sit back, pause and observe when we are in the process of a potential MAJOR reversal. My opinion...
Here's what the 45m, 90m and 180m look like after 2 hours have passed:
Kommentar:
I previously said, "I'm the type to simply sit back, pause and observe when we are in the process of a potential MAJOR reversal. My opinion..."
That's AFTER making entry of course. I would sit back and observe AFTER making entry.
That's AFTER making entry of course. I would sit back and observe AFTER making entry.
Kommentar:
Simply another update to let you see why I wanted only to OBSERVE:
Kommentar:
Let me be CLEAR about something with my charts for some in other social media and in the main chat room on Trading View who want to be "haters."
When I place TEXT BUBBLES on my charts to identify events, that also IMPLIES that is WHERE I believe we are going. I'm getting to where I don't draw lines as often as I used to in order to show where I think we're going. I simply use text bubbles with a description of an "EVENT" within a Phase to DEPICT "WHERE" I believe it's going. This way THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY CONFUSION.
So, IF I "entertain" the though of an event or an entire schematic being rejected BUT HAVE NOT CHANGED MY TEXT BUBBLES LOCATION OR DESCRIPTION, then it means I'm STILL going with what you see in the text bubbles and you are simply reading thoughts I'm expressing WHILE events play out.
When I "entertained" the thought that Accumulation Schematic "MIGHT" get rejected, it was FUD creeping in. Especially, after I've already made two entries at $6,050 and $5,880. Am I to never express any concerns I may or may not have in my publications? It appears if I do express such concerns in the future that I may have to also REMIND people I'm STILL in trades that are on-going and I have NOT changed my text bubbles to indicate I have changed my analysis to indicate otherwise. So, do NOT assume if I express my thoughts (FUD) that I have canceled my trade. If I have canceled and changed my thoughts entirely, I WILL LET YOU KNOW.
When I place TEXT BUBBLES on my charts to identify events, that also IMPLIES that is WHERE I believe we are going. I'm getting to where I don't draw lines as often as I used to in order to show where I think we're going. I simply use text bubbles with a description of an "EVENT" within a Phase to DEPICT "WHERE" I believe it's going. This way THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY CONFUSION.
So, IF I "entertain" the though of an event or an entire schematic being rejected BUT HAVE NOT CHANGED MY TEXT BUBBLES LOCATION OR DESCRIPTION, then it means I'm STILL going with what you see in the text bubbles and you are simply reading thoughts I'm expressing WHILE events play out.
When I "entertained" the thought that Accumulation Schematic "MIGHT" get rejected, it was FUD creeping in. Especially, after I've already made two entries at $6,050 and $5,880. Am I to never express any concerns I may or may not have in my publications? It appears if I do express such concerns in the future that I may have to also REMIND people I'm STILL in trades that are on-going and I have NOT changed my text bubbles to indicate I have changed my analysis to indicate otherwise. So, do NOT assume if I express my thoughts (FUD) that I have canceled my trade. If I have canceled and changed my thoughts entirely, I WILL LET YOU KNOW.
Kommentar:
To explain what it is I'm looking for in the 45m, 90m and 180m indicators:
I'm posting the chart FIRST then providing explanation in the next comment.
I'm posting the chart FIRST then providing explanation in the next comment.
Kommentar:
Following comments are regarding the chart above in the previous post:
1. I want to see a HIGHER "LOW"
2. I want to see the Blue LSMA in the 45m TF turn back to the upside after touching or going below the 20% level.
3. The Stochastic RSI in the 90m TF is still heading downward. We want it to bounce back upside soon with a HIGHER "LOW"
4. The Purple Ghost already went below 20% level in the 90m TF; indicating potential exhaustion soon. Also, the Green Line in the 90m TF is approaching 20% level; indicating downside pressure may exhaust soon.
5. Do not assume the Blue lSMA in the 90m TF "MUST" come back down to the 20% level at this time. It's a moving average and the "average" still remains high in this TF at the moment.
6. The Blue LSMA in the 180m (3h) TF still has room to go up to 80% level or higher.
7. Do not assume the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI in the 180m TF MUST come down to 20% or lower before we continue with upside pressure again. They can actually remain in the 80% to 100% range for quite a while before falling back down to the 20% level or lower.
8. The Purple Ghost in the 180m TF is already below 20% level; signaling potential exhaustion on our downward pressure and upside pressure may come back into play soon.
BOTTOM LINE, I want to see a HIGHER "LOW." Seeing a higher low will be one positive step towards this being a trend reversal and a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.
We still want to see our price action go up and above $9k for the next step of confirming we are in an Accumulation Schematic.
I probably should have been clear to everyone like I was with a few people in conversations below in this publication and previous publication. We make our trades based off our analysis and put proper safeguards in place in case our analysis is wrong.
Our first trade (entry) should have been that first dip down to $5,780. I made my first entry at $6,050 when we began going up from that $5,780 low. That drop went below the lower boundary of the Selling Climax. Which was $5,920.72. Since it went below $5,920.72, I marked that as a signal of this being an Accumulation Schematic #1 and made my entry the first sign of it going back upside AFTER going below that $5,920.72 price point.
The Second entry I made at $5,880 was quite similar to the previous dip. I assumed that may be our TEST and made my entry once I saw signs of going up from that dip at $5,774.72 on BitStamp.
Of course, after that 2nd entry I made, it began acting like it wanted to come down again and I began to get worried. NOT for myself because I was prepared to exit my trade to protect capital and avoid serious losses. I was more concerned with followers who may have made their trades from my analysis.
1. I want to see a HIGHER "LOW"
2. I want to see the Blue LSMA in the 45m TF turn back to the upside after touching or going below the 20% level.
3. The Stochastic RSI in the 90m TF is still heading downward. We want it to bounce back upside soon with a HIGHER "LOW"
4. The Purple Ghost already went below 20% level in the 90m TF; indicating potential exhaustion soon. Also, the Green Line in the 90m TF is approaching 20% level; indicating downside pressure may exhaust soon.
5. Do not assume the Blue lSMA in the 90m TF "MUST" come back down to the 20% level at this time. It's a moving average and the "average" still remains high in this TF at the moment.
6. The Blue LSMA in the 180m (3h) TF still has room to go up to 80% level or higher.
7. Do not assume the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI in the 180m TF MUST come down to 20% or lower before we continue with upside pressure again. They can actually remain in the 80% to 100% range for quite a while before falling back down to the 20% level or lower.
8. The Purple Ghost in the 180m TF is already below 20% level; signaling potential exhaustion on our downward pressure and upside pressure may come back into play soon.
BOTTOM LINE, I want to see a HIGHER "LOW." Seeing a higher low will be one positive step towards this being a trend reversal and a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.
We still want to see our price action go up and above $9k for the next step of confirming we are in an Accumulation Schematic.
I probably should have been clear to everyone like I was with a few people in conversations below in this publication and previous publication. We make our trades based off our analysis and put proper safeguards in place in case our analysis is wrong.
Our first trade (entry) should have been that first dip down to $5,780. I made my first entry at $6,050 when we began going up from that $5,780 low. That drop went below the lower boundary of the Selling Climax. Which was $5,920.72. Since it went below $5,920.72, I marked that as a signal of this being an Accumulation Schematic #1 and made my entry the first sign of it going back upside AFTER going below that $5,920.72 price point.
The Second entry I made at $5,880 was quite similar to the previous dip. I assumed that may be our TEST and made my entry once I saw signs of going up from that dip at $5,774.72 on BitStamp.
Of course, after that 2nd entry I made, it began acting like it wanted to come down again and I began to get worried. NOT for myself because I was prepared to exit my trade to protect capital and avoid serious losses. I was more concerned with followers who may have made their trades from my analysis.
Kommentar:
Followers,
Tell me something...
Do you prefer I create Text Bubbles with description of what I want to see for EACH TIME FRAME in its OWN CHART?
OR
Is it okay to place that description separate from the chart and above or below?
My guess is you prefer text bubbles on EACH TIME FRAME on its own individual chart.
Am I correct? I'm open to advice....
Tell me something...
Do you prefer I create Text Bubbles with description of what I want to see for EACH TIME FRAME in its OWN CHART?
OR
Is it okay to place that description separate from the chart and above or below?
My guess is you prefer text bubbles on EACH TIME FRAME on its own individual chart.
Am I correct? I'm open to advice....
Kommentar:
Some of the Text bubbles below may be a bit redundant. Because what we're seeing in one time frame (TF) is very similar to another. I'm going to take a break and fix some dinner. I'm getting hungry. Once I finish eating, I'll post lower time frames with text bubbles.
7-Day TF:
6-Day TF:
5-Day TF:
4-Day TF:
7-Day TF:
6-Day TF:
5-Day TF:
4-Day TF:
Kommentar:
Thought I would share the 14-DAY (2-Week) TF to allow you to see what I have been concerned about the past several weeks. I'm going to fix something to eat now. I'll be back later with lower time frames.
Kommentar:
3-Day TF:
2-Day TF:
1-Day TF:
2-Day TF:
1-Day TF:
Kommentar:
Taking a walk in the neighborhood with my wife and son. I'll be back soon to post even lower TF's with text bubbles.
Kommentar:
18h (1080m) TF:
12h (720m) TF:
6h (360m TF:
3h (180m) TF:
1.5h (90m) TF:
12h (720m) TF:
6h (360m TF:
3h (180m) TF:
1.5h (90m) TF:
Kommentar:
After cumulating all of the information in the time frames (above), it currently looks like we may have another dip down in the near term. As to where the dip will go down to? That is unknown. This will be interesting to see where it goes down to. This MIGHT be a TEST of the Support before going up to new highs (Spring) - OR - it could be a set up for a Bull Trap to take us to lower levels.
We still don't quite have enough data in the higher time frames to provide a definitive answer as to whether a reversal to the upside for the long term is confirmed.
Hopefully, all of this has been helpful. I know it's frustrating not to have a clear signal of a trend reversal to the upside for the long term. There's not one for the long term either in my opinion. UNLESS you look in time frames higher than the 14-Day (2-Week) TF.
We still don't quite have enough data in the higher time frames to provide a definitive answer as to whether a reversal to the upside for the long term is confirmed.
Hopefully, all of this has been helpful. I know it's frustrating not to have a clear signal of a trend reversal to the upside for the long term. There's not one for the long term either in my opinion. UNLESS you look in time frames higher than the 14-Day (2-Week) TF.
Kommentar:
TO BE CLEAR: For the long term I'm still bullish. For the short term, we may have another dip. I'm expecting a dip at least close to previous low to test support (demand) again. If we break through support, this COULD be damaging to long term outlook.
Kommentar:
This is me "Thinking out loud."
There's a "possibility" the Composite Group is culminating a MIXTURE of Accumulation Schematic #1 -AND- #2.
#1 - by taking this current drop down just below the lower boundary of the trading range.
#2 - by making this a long dragging out of Phase C before finally going up violently with an Up Thrust and confirming a "Sign of Strength" just above the adjusted trading range. However, the final price drop just before the violent Up Thrust will not be as
low as previous lows on previous dips.
The letters in quotations underneath the abbreviations describing each event simply points out what "Phase" that event is in.
There's a "possibility" the Composite Group is culminating a MIXTURE of Accumulation Schematic #1 -AND- #2.
#1 - by taking this current drop down just below the lower boundary of the trading range.
#2 - by making this a long dragging out of Phase C before finally going up violently with an Up Thrust and confirming a "Sign of Strength" just above the adjusted trading range. However, the final price drop just before the violent Up Thrust will not be as
low as previous lows on previous dips.
The letters in quotations underneath the abbreviations describing each event simply points out what "Phase" that event is in.
Kommentar:
A reminder of what Accumulations Schematic #2 looks like. You will notice the drop in phase C does not fall below the lower boundary of the trading range and it also drags out for a bit longer period before an Up Thrust:
i.imgur.com/54FyNdB.png
i.imgur.com/54FyNdB.png
Kommentar:
This actually looks possible on the Daily (1440m) TF. This coincides with the previous chart posted above with a combination of Accumulation Schematic #1 and #2. The depiction of that combination above has the price action breaking down around the $8,100 to $8,500 range. This also shows how the Blue LSMA would have to play out for that scenario to come into play.
Kommentar:
Here's a look at the 360m TF: You see there's still some room for the Godmode Blue LSMA to continue upside. I can see the Blue LSMA potentially reaching it's peak on July 3rd in the 360m and the price turn back down. How much down is unknown. The scribble I've placed on the chart is to emphasize how the price action COULD move but it does NOT declare the price action WILL move as depicted in the scribble.
My guess is they will bring it down one more time to liquidate margin longs before actually taking us long. Which in turn will liquidate new short bets on margin when it's taken back upside.
My guess is they will bring it down one more time to liquidate margin longs before actually taking us long. Which in turn will liquidate new short bets on margin when it's taken back upside.
Kommentar:
The Blue LSMA in the Daily TF suggests we "could" go up much stronger but I'm unsure we will go up so strongly with the Blue LSMA approaching the 80% level in the 360m TF.
Here is the Daily TF:
Here is the Daily TF:
Kommentar:
The BLUE Text Bubble should have read: "The Blue LSMA "could" go up much stronger in a short period of time before coming back DOWN.
Kommentar:
I drew some lines parallel with one another to offer a different perspective on POTENTIAL locations for the price to find resistance at different points on the way up or down.
Kommentar:
By the way, I'm in LOG SCALE. That's helpful to know if you are thinking about doing similar on your chart with similar lines.
Kommentar:
If we end up having a combination of Accumulation Schematic #1 -AND- #2, it could look something similar to the following.
Here's a look WITHOUT indicators:
Here's a look WITH indicators. The Blue LSMA in particular:
Here's a look WITHOUT indicators:
Here's a look WITH indicators. The Blue LSMA in particular:
Kommentar:
Closer look:
A look at the 2-Day TF with indicators; emphasis on Blue LSMA in Godmode: We will know more as things play out and time draws near for possible double top.
Closer look:
A look at the 2-Day TF with indicators; emphasis on Blue LSMA in Godmode: We will know more as things play out and time draws near for possible double top.
Kommentar:
There's still room on this 12h (720m) TF for the Blue LSMA to go up. Yes, the Stochastic RSI is turning down currently. However, the Phoenix ARI remains at 100% level. I would think we would be able to make it at least to $7,000 or just shy of it. We could go higher to approximately $7,300 before having a decent drop of about $700 or $800 before continuing up once again.
Apologies for the delay. My 82 year old mother-n-law fell in the kitchen while cooking a 4th of July meal for the family. She's currently in the hospital and about to have hip replacement surgery this morning. Yes, she broke her hip. She will be in rehab a while too.
Anyway, here's the 12h TF:
Apologies for the delay. My 82 year old mother-n-law fell in the kitchen while cooking a 4th of July meal for the family. She's currently in the hospital and about to have hip replacement surgery this morning. Yes, she broke her hip. She will be in rehab a while too.
Anyway, here's the 12h TF:
Kommentar:
The 2-Day and possibly other time frames coming up shortly.
Kommentar:
3-Day TF:
2-day TF: NOTE: I left the text bubbles alone for this 2-Day TF "BECAUSE" the lines are very similar to the 3-Day TF (above); only a bit more progress visible in the 2-Day than the 3-Day.
4-Day TF:
2-day TF: NOTE: I left the text bubbles alone for this 2-Day TF "BECAUSE" the lines are very similar to the 3-Day TF (above); only a bit more progress visible in the 2-Day than the 3-Day.
4-Day TF:
Kommentar:
TO BE CLEAR: I AM BULLISH. Meaning, I'm expecting us to go up to at least the $8,000 to $8,500 range at a minimum. We could go higher but will not know for sure until we approach those price levels and have a look at the indicators. You also see I have us coming back down one more time during the month of September to a HIGHER LOW. Then back upside beginning in October.
Kommentar:
A look at progress in the 6h (360m) TF. I drew some lines to show what track the Blue LSMA should take if the price action moves as I've drawn for the candles to take. I also drew lines inside the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI (merged) indicators to show the possible future track of the Phoenix ARI indicator.
Here's a look at the Daily (1440m) TF without removing what I drew in the 360m TF. It appears the Blue LSMA in the Daily has more room for travel to and above the 80% level before upside pressure has exhausted and comes down briefly. The reason I'm saying "briefly" is because of what I'm seeing in higher TF's like the 2-Day, 3-Day, 4-Day, etc...
Here's a look at the Daily (1440m) TF without removing what I drew in the 360m TF. It appears the Blue LSMA in the Daily has more room for travel to and above the 80% level before upside pressure has exhausted and comes down briefly. The reason I'm saying "briefly" is because of what I'm seeing in higher TF's like the 2-Day, 3-Day, 4-Day, etc...
Kommentar:
3h (180m) TF:
Kommentar:
12h (720m) TF: $6,549 very possible if we break below the red diagonal line on the chart.
Kommentar:
3h (180m) TF: Update
Kommentar:
720m (12h) TF: You'll note there is quite a bit of room for downward pressure in the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI. If they actually make it all the way down to 20% level or lower remains to be seen. Time will tell.
Kommentar:
4h and 6h TF's:
Kommentar:
Kommentar:
We hit that 0.5 FIB and missed it by $1.59. Not sure if it will continue down further yet. Let me have a look at other TF's again.
Kommentar:
I recently posted this chart in my Monero (XMR) publication:
I'm seeing the same scenario playing out POTENTIALLY for BTCUSD. I'm saying POTENTIALLY because THIS may be what I was expecting WHEN I titled this publication "Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 WAITING FOR CONFIMATION." This is the CONFIRMATION we've been waiting for. Either we go down lower than previous lows from here.... much lower.... -OR- We confirm a TEST here and continue upward towards a Sign of Strength. Which would also mean my assumption of a potential combination of Accumulations Schematic #1 AND #2 may not be in play and it would mean only a Wyckoff Acccumulation Schematic #1. Which is a good thing.
I'm seeing the same scenario playing out POTENTIALLY for BTCUSD. I'm saying POTENTIALLY because THIS may be what I was expecting WHEN I titled this publication "Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 WAITING FOR CONFIMATION." This is the CONFIRMATION we've been waiting for. Either we go down lower than previous lows from here.... much lower.... -OR- We confirm a TEST here and continue upward towards a Sign of Strength. Which would also mean my assumption of a potential combination of Accumulations Schematic #1 AND #2 may not be in play and it would mean only a Wyckoff Acccumulation Schematic #1. Which is a good thing.
Kommentar:
If those with Pro Accounts want to TRY to have an added feature to allow adjustment in Time Frame in increments of one hour UP TO 48 HOURS, please "Like" this post: getsatisfaction...-up-to-48-hours?rfm=1
There is a HUGE GAP of indicator information we are missing between the 24 hour (Daily) and 48 hour (2-Day) time frames that could POTENTIALLY give us an additional signal (confirmation) of possible TREND REVERSAL if we could see the 30h, 36h and 42h time frames.
There is a HUGE GAP of indicator information we are missing between the 24 hour (Daily) and 48 hour (2-Day) time frames that could POTENTIALLY give us an additional signal (confirmation) of possible TREND REVERSAL if we could see the 30h, 36h and 42h time frames.
Kommentar:
360m TF: Note the yellow boxes within the indicator to show "similar" potential formation of lines. The reason I'm pointing this out is what you will see in the next chart (720m TF).
Please ignore all the black and red vertical time lines. I'm currently doing a study in lower time frames.
360m TF:
180m TF:
720m TF:
Please ignore all the black and red vertical time lines. I'm currently doing a study in lower time frames.
360m TF:
180m TF:
720m TF:
Kommentar:
An update to show what the 360m TF looks like below. I can see downside pressure in the future for us here in the 6h TF. I'm expecting us to go no lower than my 0.786 FIB. However, that does not mean will must go down to that FIB. We may only go to the 0.618 FIB. It's hard to say. Bottom line is more downward pressure will be coming.
Kommentar:
360m TF UPDATE:
Kommentar:
Update with the 90m TF:
Kommentar:
Looks like we will be going down to the 0.786 FIB at $5,998.14 range. So, if you have a decent amount of capital and looking for when to get in, now may be a good time to begin slowly getting in. My opinion...
Kommentar:
I say this because if you put up a large buy wall, it may not get filled. Although, it's possible you may tempt them to come down and fill you. Hard to say. I prefer spreading out in smaller amounts.
Kommentar:
The beginning of what appears to be our last dip down.
Kommentar:
There is still quite a bit of time remaining before reversal to the upside when looking at the Daily (1440m) TF. The 38m TF I posted previously was only pointing out this "might" be the beginning of our last leg down before reversal.
Note how much room remains in the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI in this Daily TF:
Note how much room remains in the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI in this Daily TF:
Kommentar:
240m TF: Before showing the 240m (4h) TF, I want to re-emphasize to those with large funds that you should have already been slowly making entry with buy orders spread out. You don't have much longer before we have a reversal to the upside. If you still haven't made full entry with your capital, you can try battling bots with buy orders on the way up in waves on the 5m time frame. It's highly likely THIS IS our "Test" AFTER a "Spring" of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 and we will begin going upside no later than July 15th or 16th. Could be sooner.
Happy Trading! ; )
Happy Trading! ; )
Kommentar:
Keep in mind the Stochastic RSI in that 240m (4h) chart I just posted above will also give you a clue of when the upside pressure may exhaust itself and turn back downside for probably one last time.
Kommentar:
I like what I'm seeing with the Blue LSMA currently at 12% level in the Weekly TF. Note where I placed the TWO PURPLE VERTICAL TIME LINES. Both of which are placed in line with the Blue LSMA in "history" and "current."
1-Week TF:
2-Week TF:
1-Week TF:
2-Week TF:
Kommentar:
I've created a NEW publication for BTCUSD (Below).
The ONLY purpose for posting the previous 1-Week and 2-Week charts was to allow others who have followed this publication since the beginning see how the indicators were progressing. In case you may have forgot; the 2-Week TF was the main reason I titled this publication "WAITING for confirmation."
The ONLY purpose for posting the previous 1-Week and 2-Week charts was to allow others who have followed this publication since the beginning see how the indicators were progressing. In case you may have forgot; the 2-Week TF was the main reason I titled this publication "WAITING for confirmation."
The information contained herein - which includes ALL charts I provide on Trading View or any other platform - is for information purposes only. None of my charts and/or comments should be construed to be financial, trading, legal or tax advice. The content in my "ideas" and the comments provided by others in visitors comments section is solely "opinion" or "ideas" of the writer/speaker who may or may not be a licensed or registered advisor.
Purchasing crypto currencies can pose considerable risk of loss. I nor those who comment herein do not guarantee any particular outcome. Past performance does NOT indicate future results. The ideas presented in these charts by me or visitors is NOT an offer to sell securities. It's simply giving "ideas" on how a particular crypto currency and/or token may or may not perform.
NEVER invest more than you can afford to lose. Feel free to consult professional advisors in the event you wish to invest in crypto currencies.