We have the situation where nobody want to sell bitcoin before the fork and some people what to buy more bitcoins before it. I suppose that just after the first hard fork most of traders thought that they can sell their bitcoins after first fork and buy it again before the next fork for lower price, it was lots of shorts of bitcoin after the first fork, but price goes higher and higher. I suppose that this trend will keep before new hard fork, nobody wants to lose free money and will keep their coins until 15/11/2017, also the up trend show them that there is no reason to sell it now.
What should be after the hard fork? Very interesting question! Maybe we will see the panic on the market? When all traders who delay their sell because of the fork will start to sell, price will fall, then investors will see that the price is falling and it is the last opportunity to sell for very high prices will start to sell too, price will fall again and we will see the point F just in time. So the cycle of bitcoin will work again! We will see the minimum point of the channel on 4900 - 4700, then the of 5000 will work and price will start to go up after the falling and some time after we will see bitcoin price in the G point like it should be according to "cycle" and the .
But according other 2 forks we do not see any panic on the market just after the hard forks of course price become lower but it is hard to say that we saw any panic... Why it should happens this time?
Some reasons why panic should be:
- first 2 forks was not so popular as this one (firstly not every trader understand what is going on and have no interest for new coin, or even do not understand that the new coin will appear and it will give any profit to him, during the second fork most of the traders understand the situation, but still want to use their bitcoins for the 3-rd fork, also even more traders now understand the fork nature and possible benefit from it) and now much more traders will play this game and when it will over go out from it and sell their coins;
- nothing new happen in bitcoin world, it is no reason for so big price, the reason of growth is fork, when the fork will over price will go back;
- now we are out of the , we should return to it somehow;
- I just like my theory about the bitcoin price "cycle" =) .
Some reasons why it will be no panic and price will keep go up after the fork:
- all previous reasons are bullshit;
- something really happen in bitcoin world I just do not see it;
- we will see some news that will keep further uptrend and do not let price go down (Amazon and eBay will start to accept bitcoin , Apple will create AppleBitPay, China accept bitcoin as its official currency);
So here is my view on the situation. And what is yours? Maybe you know something interesting about all this?