BTC Trading Scenario
Aktualisiert
Hello,
Since the resolve of the Bitcoin Hard fork on August 1st, Bitcoin have been inside an ascending channel (two purple lines) and BTC seems to be unstoppable with a growth of 1400$ in just two weeks.
Today and yesterday, BTC/USD hits 4200 which seems to act as a good resistance. Indeed as you can see on the chart, 4200$ is a 1.618 FIB resistance.
With this resistance and the ascending channel, BTC is also inside an ascending triangle (between the orange and the bottom channel purple lines) which should resolve before the 19th of August.
Two scenarios could happen:
- The triangle breaks upward, BTC will keep on rising in order to hit the 2.618 shorter time FIB resistance around 4500. If this resistance is broken then BTC will go to the red line which is a longterm uptrend resistance. If the great king BTC breaks this red line we will retest the top of the ascending purple channel before hitting the 3.618 resistance at 5500$. Of course there should be local dips before going up like this.
- BTC restests the bottom of the channel (lower purple line) and the triangle breaks downward, BTC could revisit 3400-3500.
But before one of this scenario could happen, BTC could bounce several time inside this triangle.
Personally, based on the BTC custom parameters for my indicators, I am more inclined for a retest of the bottom of the channel and maybe a broke down of the triangle in order for BTC to gather some new strength before going to new Highs! But with BTC anything could happen!
Since the resolve of the Bitcoin Hard fork on August 1st, Bitcoin have been inside an ascending channel (two purple lines) and BTC seems to be unstoppable with a growth of 1400$ in just two weeks.
Today and yesterday, BTC/USD hits 4200 which seems to act as a good resistance. Indeed as you can see on the chart, 4200$ is a 1.618 FIB resistance.
With this resistance and the ascending channel, BTC is also inside an ascending triangle (between the orange and the bottom channel purple lines) which should resolve before the 19th of August.
Two scenarios could happen:
- The triangle breaks upward, BTC will keep on rising in order to hit the 2.618 shorter time FIB resistance around 4500. If this resistance is broken then BTC will go to the red line which is a longterm uptrend resistance. If the great king BTC breaks this red line we will retest the top of the ascending purple channel before hitting the 3.618 resistance at 5500$. Of course there should be local dips before going up like this.
- BTC restests the bottom of the channel (lower purple line) and the triangle breaks downward, BTC could revisit 3400-3500.
But before one of this scenario could happen, BTC could bounce several time inside this triangle.
Personally, based on the BTC custom parameters for my indicators, I am more inclined for a retest of the bottom of the channel and maybe a broke down of the triangle in order for BTC to gather some new strength before going to new Highs! But with BTC anything could happen!
Anmerkung
This analysis played out quite well! As you can see on the 1D chart BTC tested the top of the triangle but the 1D bar didn't close outside of the triangle and bounce on the orange line + 1.618 FIB resistance.
Therefore the price fell down and tested the bottom of the purple channel before going up a little.
As shown by the indicators, the price should go down/sideway a little to test the bottom of the channel, before going back up to retest the top of the triangle.
Anmerkung
We are currently testing again the bottom of the channel as expected.
But we also formed an Head and shoulders pattern which is a bearish pattern.
If BTC break downward the channel we could have a strong down mouvement.
Anmerkung
The bottom of the Channel was strong enough to generate a bounce and to cancel the H&S pattern.
Now BTC/USD is trying again to test the top of the triangle
Anmerkung
I just moved up the orange line to the other FIB resistance which was near in order to be more accurate. BTC is still inside a ascending triangle (between the orange and the bottom purple lines).
But if we watch the 1H chart, we can see that BTC is also inside a smaller ascending triangle (between the orange and the black lines). This triangle (usually a bearish pattern which tends to breaks downward) will resolve before the end of the day. Therefore we will soon know if BTC will manage to break the strong resistance at 4400 or if it fall down in order to test the bottom of the purple channel.
Anmerkung
BTC is at the bottom of the channel. If we break down we will have a good downward mouvement. If not we will bounced back up to test again 4400 and 4500.
Anmerkung
BTC testing the FIB resistance. If it breaks, next stop are the two red line (4800 / 5000) and after that the next fib resistance at 5500.
If not, it will come back to the purple and black line
Haftungsausschluss
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