BITCOIN 2019 IS A BEAR MARKET (CORRECTION)

30. Okt. 2019

I personally see Bitcoin in a bear market. Why you may ask is that every time a Bitcoin cycle is completed. The next cycle will take longer to complete.

Bitcoin cycle 1: In 2010 the bull market took roughly 335 days and corrected for 153 days.
Bitcoin cycle 2: In November 2011 the second bitcoin cycle took 731 days and corrected for 426 days
Bitcoin cycle 3: In January 2015 the third bitcoin cycle took 1065 days and took 365 days to correct.

Let’s stop here? Why did the 2015 correction take less days to complete, than the 2011 cycle? This is because we are still in the correction of the 2015 cycle.
The longer the bull run (in days) the longer the correction. This makes sense when there is a big spike in price it usually follows with a dramatic drop-in price (correction). This could be simply seen with the 40% gain we received on the 25th October. It followed with a 13% correction a day later.

If you look at the correction in 2014 it looks really similar to what we are currently seeing now. But its taking a longer duration to complete. Also, for Bitcoin to drop close to 1K it will cause many new investors and crypto YouTubers to panic sell and think that Bitcoin is dead. Which will make many people have disbelief in Bitcoin. Which will spark the next Bitcoin Cycle. The future cycle isn't going to be a 4 year cycle. We could be looking at a 6 year cycle or longer. We might also see something really similar in 2000 with the tech bubble crash. With a Bitcoin crash correcting in the range of 90%. Which will make many people have disbelief in the technology. That's exactly what needs to be done since many people are investing to get 'RICH QUICK'. But not knowing the amazing technology with have which is Bitcoin, Cryptography, Decentralization of the monetary system and finally a currency for the people by the people.

Furthermore, I personally feel that the halving has already played effect from December 2018 till June 2019. Which caused the price to move from 3k to 13k. As we are approaching the Bitcoin halving their might not be any growth to the price of Bitcoin but rather a more drop in price. Halving isn't going to have much effect on price as we like to believe. What Bitcoin needs now is to shake out all the weak hands to panic sell. Because many people need to invest into the technology rather than the fantasy of getting rich quick.

For further explanation please look at the chart I’ve attached it will show you a better understanding of what I’m trying to convey with this post.
Note: The metrics for measuring the duration of each cycle was done in months. Which could vary a couple of days. Also, note that every Bitcoin cycle is creating less gains. This is because more bitcoin is distributed to more people and it takes a larger group (amount) of Bitcoin to make an effect on the charts.

P.S. This isn’t financial advice and I’m not a professional trader. So this could all be false if we can break out of the descending wedge we are currently in and maintain to be above 12k.