Short

Regardless of your bias, trade cautiously...

Aktualisiert

Honestly, I do not think the correction is over, I think we may see near Covid prices again... The lack of a "covid wick" on the monthly is the biggest giveaway to me.

I must admit, my macro has errors and therefore, can only trade my micro, however, at the end of this set we could really dump. I know Bulls are calling for buys at 28k, but honestly, with the uncertainty I can see in the market (Triangles within corrections), who knows how deep that could go, and it will only be a Wave 1 going down... On retracement, everyone that missed the sell will offload for profits starting Wave 3...

This is an opinion, based on my TA. I may be wrong. I do not care if I am, I will protect my wealth regardless, you do you.

I am currently long, so short term BTC goes up.

However, on the daily, two of four criteria to indicate the top have been met.

Regardless of your bias, protect your positions at the end of this set.

I can honestly say I have no idea what will actually happen.

Safe Trading.

Anmerkung

I should show you my Micro, noting I said I have errors on my Macro...

Chart:

Anmerkung

If you see people charting EWT with the ATH labelled as a Wave 5, the count is invalid.

Chart:

Anmerkung

This seems more probable rather than an extremely truncated Wave 5.

The count is Valid, and meets all required ratios. Wave 5 hits the Extended 10.618 FIB and blows through the -0.236 FIB. This count makes so much more sense to me in such a parabolic run.

So the question that needs to be answered is...

What Wave was the ATH? (Comment Bellow)

Chart:

Anmerkung

TA, check...

Chart

Anmerkung

TP @ 35550

Chart:

Anmerkung

PA did not behave as expected, back to the drawing board.

Here is where I stand, 1-2, 1-2 within this Expanded Wave 3.

Chart:

Anmerkung

BTC looks primed, excuse the 3MIN Chart, I am looking for entry to a Long. As long as we stay above the Active Invalidation, I think we are good for the next few hours.

Enjoy the TA.

Chart

Anmerkung

If you were following you probably got a pretty decent position out of that... I know I did... Can I get some Boosts for TA?

We need PA to break 35101 to confirm that bottom.

Chart

Anmerkung

Looks like it was all part of a larger Wave 2. Position should be safe if you used a stop at the Count Invalidation. The stop presented above was 0.1%.

Chart:)

Anmerkung

Here are the next targets...

Chart:

Anmerkung

I closed, I think it is still coming down lower...

Chart:

Anmerkung

That looks more like the bottom. It might not be, but probable it was.

Chart:

Anmerkung

Position looks good, bottom will not be confirmed until PA crosses the Active Validation line. We may have one more retracement to test.

I hope you managed to get a decent position if you were following.

I snatched my entry at 34845.

Chart:

Anmerkung

I am not convinced that was the bottom, manage your risk.

Anmerkung

Ok, now I think the bottom is in... Time for some green candles...

Chart:

Anmerkung

This is why I am on the 3MIN, so I can see the Wave Form...

This is why I think the bottom is in... A complete ABC correction from the top has been formed.

This could be a Wave X, however, the probability is low.

Currently waiting for PA to cross one of the lines...

Chart:

Anmerkung

Bottom...

Chart:

Anmerkung

That looks better, I closed my position, missed entry on that one. Still has room to move, but has hit hit the W2 targets.

Chart:

Anmerkung

Ty Gregg for finding this trendline, PA bounced perfectly from there...

Chart:

Anmerkung

I was ready that time... Already taken profit.

Chart:

Anmerkung

Sorry, my internet provider had a nationwide internet outage today, I have only just been able to check my charts, next targets.

Chart

Anmerkung

What happens now will confirm my count or not. I have closed my positions.

Chart:

Anmerkung

One more high in this set.

Chart:

Anmerkung

Enjoy your profits...

Chart:

Anmerkung

If this is an Ending Diagonal I expect PA to behave like this.

Chart:

Anmerkung

I have been calling for an Ending Diagonal for a few weeks now, it looks like PA will confirm it shortly... Let's find out...

Chart:

Anmerkung

Now we have a few bottom end targets... Looks like an Ending Diagonal to me...

Chart:

Anmerkung

The Hammer is back...

Chart:

Anmerkung

If you were following from the beginning, enjoy your profits.

Chart:

Anmerkung

I am not 100% committed to this position, however, this is the setup I would be looking at. I believe it is the last profitable position in this set.

If I take it, I will count down into my entry to get the best R/R possible, closing the position early, I will not be greedy on this set, who knows what will happen next.

I consider this a High Risk trade with a 1:4 R/R.

Chart:

Anmerkung

BTC | Macro Update
Remember I do have errors in my Macro, this may be a bullish structure, I am looking at it as a corrective structure under bullish conditions.

I think we have a new low to print.

Chart

Anmerkung

This is a fractal I found. This is why I urge caution. This is a High Risk Area.

Trade Safely.

Chart:

Anmerkung

This is the complete fractal so far... The complete move remains incomplete...

Fractal found on the EURCHF Monthly timeframe. Expanding Ending Diagonal, into a W5 to complete a W3. BTC will be moving into a W5 to complete a WC. The drop could be much worse, and the retracement may not be as generous.

Chart:

Anmerkung

Here is a pretty interesting Pitchfork I recently found...

Chart:]/b]

Anmerkung

I have my topside...

Chart:

Anmerkung

My micro was just invalidated, I have closed my longs and am now side lined. Top could be in, I don't think so, I think there is still one more push up.

Anmerkung

Personally, I am not a fan of this count, but this is the Bull Case for BTC...

Chart:

Anmerkung

If the correction is incomplete, we can expect PA to behave like this.

Chart

Anmerkung

I am at a little bit of a loss. PA not really doing anything significant. Possible Expanded Flat, but I do not like the middle. I think we still have a high to print before any significant drawdown bellow the Micro Count Invalidation.

Chart:

Anmerkung

Key Level...

Chart:

Anmerkung

I think I have worked it out...

Chart:

Anmerkung

Currently there is a battle between the lower time frame MAs and Oscillators, and the higher time frames.

Lower all want to go up, Higher want to go down.

I am short. I will be closing 50% of my position between 37000 and 37100, and wait to see what happens.

If 36779 holds, we go up. If it doesn't, this is all part of a bigger move, possibly the Expanded Flat correction I had charted prior to this.

To me, this is the most probable scenario at the moment, but remember, the market does not have free will, and anything can happen.

Trade Safe.

Anmerkung

If the top of this set is in...

Chart:

Anmerkung

No changes to the count... Current top is a WB of an Expanded Flat W4...

Chart:

Anmerkung

Sorry guys, I was not really counting that move up and should have known there was one more leg up, it was on the chart already.

Here is todays update.

Chart:

Anmerkung

Forgot to update FIB pulls for topside target.

Chart:

Anmerkung

I have two charts for your consideration today. The first is the standard BTCUSD chart I produce. The second is the Daily BTCAUD Chart.

BTCAUD is super clean, and currently has not printed a new high.

I believe the end is nearer than we think.

Please trade carefully.

BTCUSD Chart:

BTCAUD Chart:

Anmerkung

It is make or break time for my count. I do not know if there is another top, this is my best guess. I have closed my longs. Regardless of a count invalidation, I am expecting pull back. I could be wrong.

Chart:

Anmerkung

I think that is the top...

Chart:

Anmerkung

Personally, I am side lined, waiting for a retracement, I do believe there will be one.

I do not know if the top is in, but it is near, we could push as high as 50k, however, I doubt, in this leg up, we are on our way to new ATH.

I have closed my longs, and am not attempting to short the top. I will wait for the top to form, and new trend to begin before I start shorting.

Regardless of your bias, this is a profit taking area, do not get greedy, set stops, and stay humble, you could be wrong.

The entire crypto market feels shaky to me, like something big is coming, and not bull run big.

This is my last post on this idea. Once I have a new one I will post for your consideration.

Safe Trading.

Anmerkung

[u]WARNING[/u]

The count on my chart suggests the next top may be the top, top...

Trade Safe.

Chart:

JMSBurton

Auch am:

Haftungsausschluss

Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.