My experience
I owned shares of Alibaba for the last 10 months. I started buying when it dropped to $140 in November 2021, and then I started averaging costing during the downtrend, my average price was around $110 and I completely closed my position at the beginning of July 2022 when it traded at $120. In conclusion, made a small 10% during this period, assuming a lot of risks, having money stuck in there creating an opportunity cost for other investments.
My first lesson here was "Never try to catch a falling knife". I've read this quote many times, but I got pushed by the FOMO back in 2021, when I should have waited for some consolidation or lateral movements of the price, to show me some kind of demand at this level before jumping in.
I'm sharing my experience in this situation with the idea to help someone with making better investment decisions. The truth is, you must always learn from your own mistakes. But learning from others' mistakes will save you time, stress and money. However, this is where experience lays, funny isn't it?
Long-Term Forecast
Alibaba is a very interesting business model, with incredible growth in the past. I think that the chart reflects an evolution from a Growth Company to a Stable Company, that's why the P/E valuation went from 30x in the past to 15x nowadays. The market included the growth slowdown to its market cap.
Of course, there are many other risks related to Alibaba that also impacted its price during the last year. Some of them are:
- Uncertainty Risk is related to the political pressure between the USA and China.
- Delisting Risk from NYSE.
- Monopoly fines from China.
Changes in Chinese state policy regarding publicly traded enterprises, the warming of relations between the US and China, as well as current geopolitical developments where China is implied have created uncertainty for investors. This results in a negative impact on the price of the stock.
There are factors that could influence the Chinese government to be tolerant and lower the pressure on publicly traded enterprises, particularly if they choose to give a higher priority to stronger GDP development.
Taking everything into account, this could be a fantastic buying opportunity if China is becoming the next world's superpower. However, from my personal point of view, I would rather have companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft in my portfolio. I see better potential returns in them.
Short-Term Forecast
The price is showing consolidation in the zone between $80-$120, the lower part of the channel reflects a strong demand, which is easily spotted by the strong bounces that it has from there. You can also try to trade it by buying near the bottom of the lateral channel and selling it at the top.
$BABA released good quarterly earnings, beating expectations in sales and EPS. We should also take into account that when your revenue stays flat in an inflationary environment, probably your income from operations is going to decrease, and that's what happened here.
Bullish Scenario
If the momentum stays and the market breaks and maintains the $4300 level we can see a significant upside in this stock. Taking it to 120-160 dollars per share. Which in my humble opinion is less likely due to the market conditions and economic challenges that we are facing. The RECESSION is here, and the INFLATION has to go straight down from these levels to prevent a crash in the financial markets.
Bearish Scenario
If the INFLATION is unstoppable at these interest rates, the market is going to be severely punished. Less consumer demand due to the recession will impact companies' margins. Profit warnings from companies will accelerate the crash. If we find ourselves in this situation, get your cash ready, many investment opportunities will be out there waiting for us. In this case, I would adapt my strategy, and I could consider buying some $BABA at $60 for sure.
Alibaba is having strong buybacks from the management. The company has plenty of cash which is going to be used to reduce the outstanding amount of shares and to undertake investment projects. The Debt-Equity Ratio is around 15%, and the company has a healthy balance sheet. The Cloud Segment is getting bigger and it can also be a very important stream of income in the future for the firm. The company is actually trading at 10X Price / Cash Flow, which historically has meant that it is a good buy at this level. From a financial perspective, I think that $BABA is undervalued.
The above mentioned characteristics made me start buying the stock at $140, my mistake was that I didn't properly analyse the risks this investment had. Not everything is in the accounting books! Keep your eyes open!
I stand SHORT for the next 6-12 months and LONG for the next 3-5 years.
Don't forget, I'm a random guy on the internet that is just sharing his point of view. Do not take my reflections as financial advice.
I owned shares of Alibaba for the last 10 months. I started buying when it dropped to $140 in November 2021, and then I started averaging costing during the downtrend, my average price was around $110 and I completely closed my position at the beginning of July 2022 when it traded at $120. In conclusion, made a small 10% during this period, assuming a lot of risks, having money stuck in there creating an opportunity cost for other investments.
My first lesson here was "Never try to catch a falling knife". I've read this quote many times, but I got pushed by the FOMO back in 2021, when I should have waited for some consolidation or lateral movements of the price, to show me some kind of demand at this level before jumping in.
I'm sharing my experience in this situation with the idea to help someone with making better investment decisions. The truth is, you must always learn from your own mistakes. But learning from others' mistakes will save you time, stress and money. However, this is where experience lays, funny isn't it?
Long-Term Forecast
Alibaba is a very interesting business model, with incredible growth in the past. I think that the chart reflects an evolution from a Growth Company to a Stable Company, that's why the P/E valuation went from 30x in the past to 15x nowadays. The market included the growth slowdown to its market cap.
Of course, there are many other risks related to Alibaba that also impacted its price during the last year. Some of them are:
- Uncertainty Risk is related to the political pressure between the USA and China.
- Delisting Risk from NYSE.
- Monopoly fines from China.
Changes in Chinese state policy regarding publicly traded enterprises, the warming of relations between the US and China, as well as current geopolitical developments where China is implied have created uncertainty for investors. This results in a negative impact on the price of the stock.
There are factors that could influence the Chinese government to be tolerant and lower the pressure on publicly traded enterprises, particularly if they choose to give a higher priority to stronger GDP development.
Taking everything into account, this could be a fantastic buying opportunity if China is becoming the next world's superpower. However, from my personal point of view, I would rather have companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft in my portfolio. I see better potential returns in them.
Short-Term Forecast
The price is showing consolidation in the zone between $80-$120, the lower part of the channel reflects a strong demand, which is easily spotted by the strong bounces that it has from there. You can also try to trade it by buying near the bottom of the lateral channel and selling it at the top.
$BABA released good quarterly earnings, beating expectations in sales and EPS. We should also take into account that when your revenue stays flat in an inflationary environment, probably your income from operations is going to decrease, and that's what happened here.
Bullish Scenario
If the momentum stays and the market breaks and maintains the $4300 level we can see a significant upside in this stock. Taking it to 120-160 dollars per share. Which in my humble opinion is less likely due to the market conditions and economic challenges that we are facing. The RECESSION is here, and the INFLATION has to go straight down from these levels to prevent a crash in the financial markets.
Bearish Scenario
If the INFLATION is unstoppable at these interest rates, the market is going to be severely punished. Less consumer demand due to the recession will impact companies' margins. Profit warnings from companies will accelerate the crash. If we find ourselves in this situation, get your cash ready, many investment opportunities will be out there waiting for us. In this case, I would adapt my strategy, and I could consider buying some $BABA at $60 for sure.
Alibaba is having strong buybacks from the management. The company has plenty of cash which is going to be used to reduce the outstanding amount of shares and to undertake investment projects. The Debt-Equity Ratio is around 15%, and the company has a healthy balance sheet. The Cloud Segment is getting bigger and it can also be a very important stream of income in the future for the firm. The company is actually trading at 10X Price / Cash Flow, which historically has meant that it is a good buy at this level. From a financial perspective, I think that $BABA is undervalued.
The above mentioned characteristics made me start buying the stock at $140, my mistake was that I didn't properly analyse the risks this investment had. Not everything is in the accounting books! Keep your eyes open!
I stand SHORT for the next 6-12 months and LONG for the next 3-5 years.
Don't forget, I'm a random guy on the internet that is just sharing his point of view. Do not take my reflections as financial advice.
You got to stay disciplined in what you say.