ICmarkets
Short

Aussie showing potential to rally and test 0.8075 weekly res...

FX:AUDUSD   Australischer Dollar/U.S. Dollar
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Bolstered by a fading US dollar             , the commodity currency shifted northbound on Tuesday. The move saw price aggressively break through the 0.80 psychological boundary and come within a few pips of testing a daily Quasimodo resistance level at 0.8030. As of current price, the unit remains above 0.80, despite an earnest attempt from sellers to push lower during the US morning segment.

With 0.80 likely being a sensitive point in this market, let’s see how land lies on the higher timeframes. Since weekly price linked with the support area at 0.7849-0.7752 three weeks ago, the unit has remained reasonably well-bid. The next objective, assuming that price continues to push north, can be seen around resistance drawn from 0.8075. Before weekly action can reach the noted resistance, however, let’s not forget that daily action must first consume the Quasimodo resistance mentioned above at 0.8030.

Suggestions: In light of the above, we would not want to be a seller at 0.80 given the room seen to move higher on the bigger picture. Similarly, we would be uncomfortable buying above 0.80 seeing how close the daily Quasimodo resistance is located. In addition to this, a sell from the daily Quasimodo opens one up to the possibility of being faked up to the weekly resistance at 0.8075. Therefore, the only place of interest right now, in our opinion, is the said weekly resistance level , which happens to stretch as far back as 1997! Whether or not this will turn to be a valid sell zone will depend entirely on how H4 price action responds. Ideally, we’d want a strong bearish candle to form from here in the shape of a full, or near-full-bodied candle.

Data points to consider: Australian growth figures at 2.30am. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.8075 region (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle to form – preferably a full, or near-full-bodied candle – is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).
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