AUD/USD Resilient Amid Mixed Economic Signals

The AUD/USD pair continues its upward trajectory, marking its second consecutive day of gains after finding support at the 0.6400 level on Wednesday. Despite facing a mixed bag of economic data, the Aussie dollar remains steadfast, exhibiting resilience in the face of uncertainty.

On the economic front, the Australian dollar experienced contrasting news. While there was a negative economic release regarding Employment Change, the Unemployment Rate showed positive feedback. Surprisingly, the market response was muted, with no significant movement in either direction. Currently, the price appears to be pausing at the 0.6450 level, reflecting a temporary equilibrium.

From a technical standpoint, the daily timeframe reveals a divergence pattern, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. Our forecast indicates a possible uptick in value, with the price expected to gravitate towards the Point of Control (POC) level between the 50% and 78.6% Fibonacci range. This projection aligns with the presence of the last strong selling order block, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.

Furthermore, insights from a Westpac report shed light on the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) stance on monetary policy. While the central bank has signaled reluctance to raise interest rates further, it emphasizes the need for greater confidence in the inflation outlook before considering the possibility of rate cuts. This cautious approach underscores the delicate balance policymakers must strike between supporting economic recovery and managing inflationary pressures.

As investors await the release of key data from the United States, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales, anticipation mounts regarding their potential impact on the direction of the US Dollar and its correlation with the AUD. These indicators will offer valuable insights into the state of the US economy and could sway market sentiment, influencing currency movements in the near term.

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