Trend Analysis: The AUD/CAD pair is currently in a downtrend on the 4-hour (4H) timeframe. The price broke below the minor key support at 0.8990, which has now become a minor key resistance level. After this breakout, the price retraced into this key resistance zone, where sellers stepped in, pushing the price lower.
Subsequently, the price broke below the next key support at 0.8930, confirming the downward pressure. However, after this, the price made an upward move, triggering stop-loss orders from sellers. This price movement is likely to create liquidity that will be hunted as the market prepares for another potential downside move.
Price Action Expectation: We are anticipating a further downward move after the recent price action. The next key event will be a break below the current minor key support level. Once the price breaks below this support, we will be looking for a selling opportunity.
Trade Setup: Trade Type: Sell Stop (Breakout below minor support) Entry Price: 0.89090 (below the minor key support level) Stop Loss: 0.89710 (above the liquidity zone where sellers were stopped out) Take Profit: 0.87650 (next minor key support level)
Conclusion: The AUD/CAD pair is showing a clear downtrend, and we are waiting for a confirmed break below the current minor key support at 0.89090 to initiate a short position. The stop-loss will be placed above the liquidity zone at 0.89710, with a target at the next key support level at 0.87650. This setup offers a solid risk-to-reward ratio, but traders should remain vigilant of any potential price reversals or unexpected market news.
Risk Management: Maintain proper position sizing with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:2. Always monitor market developments, especially news from Australia and Canada, which could influence the pair's movement.
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