$APE recovery?

25. Okt. 2022

Many people argued that APE coin was going to $3 - and despite the Fib showing me that it would need to bottom out the fib table to get there, I believed it for a moment.

I've since slowly changed my mind as I noticed that APE was testing the ~$4.1 support line(historically and presently). That support line has been rejected for the 5th time to date. I initially wrote on this briefly in the comment section of my previous analysis of the coin

I'm setting this new analysis up because APE broke through the triangle I was previously tracking, and I can see a new trend potentially forming. The fib tool will better help track APE as it tests current and possibly new supports. The Fib should help track where those new supports may be and clean up some of the volatility I suspect may be coming too.

** Disclaimer** I'm a novice trader working to put my thoughts out there to see how they stack up against the market - please feel free to share/comment on my studies - please don't use this chart as financial advice

Technicals
The "mini-rally" we see at the moment is likely due to an exchange of 1m coins I detail further down below or some bullish sentiment being expressed, given the 5th support rejection of $4.1

Notably, the 9MA has also become support at point 1 on the fib table presently. I suspect that for the short term, we have found a solid home base for APE's bottom (no pun intended) until we better understand what BTC and ETH will do next.

I'm yet to re-enter a position as I don't yet have confidence in what BTC and ETH are doing. They have broken out of their triangles but failed to move convincingly upward leaving me bearish on their movement over the coming days. ETH and BTC have a very strong impact on the price movement of APE so I'm sitting on my hands here.

Fundamentals
Also, there are little to no details emerging from Yuga regarding staking (other than what I previously mentioned about test-net) and the utility role it will play in their upcoming game, Otherside. This means complicated sentiments remain rooted with holders while ambiguity plays with their emotions.

Looking at "Into The Block", - the sentiment for APE is still firmly with long-term holders, that is, those who have held >100k coins for longer than six months. A few big exchanges have occurred between private wallets; notably, on the 21st and 22nd of October, 1m coins were released and re-absorbed. Likely some trade took place there - it's unclear what drove the exchange; it may have just been a shift of funds from a semi-cold wallet to a warm wallet in preparation for trading. Hard to say - the movement to me would be bearish, but that remains to be proven.

Social media sentiment on APE remains unclear/neutral as many focus on the next move by BTC/ETH, so no significant comments there for now.

27. Okt. 2022

Anmerkung

I've been baffled as to what caused the stall in this textbook breakout. After some digging, I initially just put it down to the DXY having a solid drop, but as DXY continued to fall, neither BTC nor ETH continued to climb - which was odd. I moved past it, putting it down to a lag in liquid exchange.

While scrolling through Twitter, I found some information that could help explain the stall further.

See, there was a recent hack that occurred on the platform FTX. An API traders could use to link external accounts was not secure. This was detailed to the platform managers some days before the hack - FTX ignored the call to action. Some days later, people took to Twitter complaining that they had lost large sums of money. FTX failed to respond publically and to the individuals complaining about the lost funds (many even had evidence of activity on their account that they themselves were not transacting). 150m was lost to the exploit.

As many do with situations like this, they run in fear of being impacted too. As such, a heavy liquidation on the FTX platform has taken place. This likely explains the quick leap up into a stall for BTC and ETH. To be clear, 1.2B in currency (almost 80% of FTX's holdings) was liquidated and moved off FTX. This means the rally we have experienced is an exhaustion rally from the liquidation of currency off of FTX. It likely is an unsustainable rally, and therefore a move down maybe coming.