1. Setup
Aerodrome is still the main liquidity flywheel on Base and is now set to merge with Velodrome into a single AERO token that will also live on Ethereum and Circle’s ARC. After the post-news flush, price on Bybit perps sits around 0.84–0.85, below the 4H EMA band and inside my demand + deviation zone.
I’m taking a 4H EMA Deviation long with a swing horizon of ~1–3 days.
2. Technical context (4H)
The local trend topped near 1.10–1.12, where multiple higher-TF order blocks sit. From there we got a clean breakdown through the 4H EMA ribbon and a series of lower lows into the green demand cluster around 0.82–0.84.
Current trade levels on the chart:
Entry: 0.842
Stop: 0.758 (below demand and the last capitulation wick)
Target: 1.014–1.02 (4H EMA re-test + prior consolidation / supply)
That’s roughly +20.5% upside vs −10.3% downside, R:R ≈ 2:1.
The 4H deviation sits above its average “stretched” reading, so the setup fits my mean-reversion rules rather than chasing trend.
3. Strategy statistics – 4H EMA Dev Long (AERO)
Backtest on this pair / timeframe: 26 trades, long only.
Winrate: 80.77%
Avg PnL per trade: +8.24%
Avg winner: +10.98%
Avg loser: −3.28% → win/loss size ratio ≈ 3.34
Largest winner: +25.17%, largest loser: −5.67%
Avg duration: 24 bars, winners around 21 bars, losers ~36 bars
Historically, losers are shallow but drag out longer; if this bounce doesn’t materialise within a typical 20–24 bar window, I’d rather cut than sit through slow bleed.
4. Fundamentals & narrative
Active positives right now:
Merge with Velodrome into one protocol and token (“AERO”) launching on Ethereum + Circle’s ARC. Existing Aerodrome holders are set to receive 94.5% of the new supply – strong alignment for current AERO holders.
Aerodrome controls ~53% of Base’s ~$4.7B DeFi TVL via ve(3,3) mechanics. About 45% of AERO is locked with an average remaining lock of 2.8 years, and protocols compete for veAERO via $2–4M weekly bribes, generating 35–45% APR from real fees, not emissions.
Narrative kicker: deposit tokens from JPMorgan reportedly already operating on Base, with the chain framed as a “default banking L2”. If that flow scales, first-order liquidity beneficiaries are AERO, lending, and major DEX routes on Base.
Expired but still relevant context:
Programmatic buybacks via the Public Goods Fund – over 150M AERO acquired and 4y-locked across PGF, Flight School, Relay.
Aerodrome crossed into deflation in September 2025, with cumulative $400M+ fees and a model where 100% of DEX revenue goes to veAERO lockers.
Large strategic lockers include Coinbase and Animoca, strengthening the “institutional Base” story.
Score: BBB+ / Positive, with key risks in narrative overextension (Base banking thesis needs confirmation), merge execution, and general market beta.
5. Trade plan & invalidation
Idea: play a mean-reversion bounce from 4H demand + EMA deviation back into the 1.00+ supply zone, while the Base / merge narrative is still hot and fee flows stay strong.
If price closes 4H below 0.758 and can’t quickly reclaim the EMA ribbon, I treat the setup as invalid and step aside – that would indicate a deeper reset of the whole move from 0.70. If we tag 1.00–1.02, I’ll realise most of the position there and only trail a small runner in case the merge and Base catalysts trigger a new leg to fresh highs.
Not financial advice – just documenting a systematic EMA Deviation long on one of the key Base liquidity primitives.
Aerodrome is still the main liquidity flywheel on Base and is now set to merge with Velodrome into a single AERO token that will also live on Ethereum and Circle’s ARC. After the post-news flush, price on Bybit perps sits around 0.84–0.85, below the 4H EMA band and inside my demand + deviation zone.
I’m taking a 4H EMA Deviation long with a swing horizon of ~1–3 days.
2. Technical context (4H)
The local trend topped near 1.10–1.12, where multiple higher-TF order blocks sit. From there we got a clean breakdown through the 4H EMA ribbon and a series of lower lows into the green demand cluster around 0.82–0.84.
Current trade levels on the chart:
Entry: 0.842
Stop: 0.758 (below demand and the last capitulation wick)
Target: 1.014–1.02 (4H EMA re-test + prior consolidation / supply)
That’s roughly +20.5% upside vs −10.3% downside, R:R ≈ 2:1.
The 4H deviation sits above its average “stretched” reading, so the setup fits my mean-reversion rules rather than chasing trend.
3. Strategy statistics – 4H EMA Dev Long (AERO)
Backtest on this pair / timeframe: 26 trades, long only.
Winrate: 80.77%
Avg PnL per trade: +8.24%
Avg winner: +10.98%
Avg loser: −3.28% → win/loss size ratio ≈ 3.34
Largest winner: +25.17%, largest loser: −5.67%
Avg duration: 24 bars, winners around 21 bars, losers ~36 bars
Historically, losers are shallow but drag out longer; if this bounce doesn’t materialise within a typical 20–24 bar window, I’d rather cut than sit through slow bleed.
4. Fundamentals & narrative
Active positives right now:
Merge with Velodrome into one protocol and token (“AERO”) launching on Ethereum + Circle’s ARC. Existing Aerodrome holders are set to receive 94.5% of the new supply – strong alignment for current AERO holders.
Aerodrome controls ~53% of Base’s ~$4.7B DeFi TVL via ve(3,3) mechanics. About 45% of AERO is locked with an average remaining lock of 2.8 years, and protocols compete for veAERO via $2–4M weekly bribes, generating 35–45% APR from real fees, not emissions.
Narrative kicker: deposit tokens from JPMorgan reportedly already operating on Base, with the chain framed as a “default banking L2”. If that flow scales, first-order liquidity beneficiaries are AERO, lending, and major DEX routes on Base.
Expired but still relevant context:
Programmatic buybacks via the Public Goods Fund – over 150M AERO acquired and 4y-locked across PGF, Flight School, Relay.
Aerodrome crossed into deflation in September 2025, with cumulative $400M+ fees and a model where 100% of DEX revenue goes to veAERO lockers.
Large strategic lockers include Coinbase and Animoca, strengthening the “institutional Base” story.
Score: BBB+ / Positive, with key risks in narrative overextension (Base banking thesis needs confirmation), merge execution, and general market beta.
5. Trade plan & invalidation
Idea: play a mean-reversion bounce from 4H demand + EMA deviation back into the 1.00+ supply zone, while the Base / merge narrative is still hot and fee flows stay strong.
If price closes 4H below 0.758 and can’t quickly reclaim the EMA ribbon, I treat the setup as invalid and step aside – that would indicate a deeper reset of the whole move from 0.70. If we tag 1.00–1.02, I’ll realise most of the position there and only trail a small runner in case the merge and Base catalysts trigger a new leg to fresh highs.
Not financial advice – just documenting a systematic EMA Deviation long on one of the key Base liquidity primitives.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.