Low Risk Trade on AAPL with 40% potential upside
Aktualisiert
AAPL has confirmed a bullish trend on 1 Dec 2020 through three signals:
1. Breaking the downard arch (in red) starting on 2 Sep 2020.
2. printing a green 2 above a green 1 on the TD sequential indicator.
3. Launching off of the bottom of the blue channel.
4. The two arches (red and green) act like a triangle which was also broken upwards.
To me, this is a very bullish entry with stoplosses at $112 and $106.
Some resitance is expected at the dotted blue lines before we make it to the top of the channel.
Tomorrow's (16 Dec 2020) hopeful green 2 above a green 1 will be the second and a stronger confirmation.
1. Breaking the downard arch (in red) starting on 2 Sep 2020.
2. printing a green 2 above a green 1 on the TD sequential indicator.
3. Launching off of the bottom of the blue channel.
4. The two arches (red and green) act like a triangle which was also broken upwards.
To me, this is a very bullish entry with stoplosses at $112 and $106.
Some resitance is expected at the dotted blue lines before we make it to the top of the channel.
Tomorrow's (16 Dec 2020) hopeful green 2 above a green 1 will be the second and a stronger confirmation.
Anmerkung
This slight pull back is good for the coming momentum. If price is not supported by the green arc, then in the worst case it will see eight trading days of downside with a low of $127. So we are still far from our stoploss at $112.
I will explain in a later comment how I'm predicting the timing.
Trade ist aktiv
So this is a clear reversal and exactly what I predicted in case the green arc doesn't hold. This is a bullish sign. A bullish pin bar reversing off of the bottom of our channel followed by a solid green candle. Very bullish.
Anmerkung
Well. It gave us a little scare but the bottom of the channel did support the price and it shot up tremendously afterwards. Phew.
I made a new entry with a stop loss at $126.
Anmerkung
This is a very hard call. Will it reverse off the bottom of the channel again? Or will it burst through? Unfortunately I'm betting on the second option, because of how strong the momentum is:
1. Solid red candles.
2. Gapping down.
3. TD sequential on red 2 below red 1.
4. I don't want to hold a risky position over the weekend.
On the bright side though:
1. The day hasn't ended yet. Price may rebound and show us a reversal candle.
2. We are still far from our stop loss.
3. The circumstances causing the drop are all superficial. So the fear is not really justified. I'm talking about GME drama and fear of lawsuits against some brokers. and the other reason is that Apple did not provide guidance in their earnings report. Well, I honestly think Apple do not *need* to provide guidance.
Anmerkung
Well AAPL did eventually break through the bottom of the channel. However, as disappointing as this whole 2-month trade has been, It has not touched our stop loss yet. If it does, then the trade is closed. And even though a reversal off of the red curve seems likely, I won't wait for that because it's like catching a falling knife. In any case, it needs another look when the time comes considering RSI levels too.
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