Bill Gross: German bunds are 'the short of a lifetime'
Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
Published 10:41 AM ET Tue, 21 April 2015 Updated 6:35 AM ET Thu, 30 April 2015
Bill Gross: German bunds are 'the short of a lifetime'Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcomPublished 10:41 AM ET Tue, 21 April 2015 Updated 6:35 AM ET Thu, 30 April 2015
Was Bill Gross für Ende 2015 vermutet hatte, wurde durch die Kurseinbrüche an den Aktienmärkten im September 2015 (Crash in China) und den Kollaps Ölpreises (Crash der Aktienmärkte im Januar und Februar 2016) aufgeschoben. Seit 4 Quartalen sind aktuell alle wichtigen globalen makroökonomischen Indikatoren simultan positiv. Es ist das erstemal überhaupt, dass auf allen Kontinenten zeitgleich fundamentale Wirtschaftsindikatoren über einen längeren Zeitraum positiv sind und Anschein nach auch positiv bleiben. Notenbanken werden jetzt gezwungen, die lockere Geldpolitik aufzugeben.
Aktuelle Wirtschaftsdaten von heute aus Grossbritannien hatten sofort Auswirkung auf Bond und Forexmärkte. Zeitgleich wurde der Ifo-index mit besser als erwarteten Daten gemeldet. Für Aktienmärkte ist das aktuelle Zinsniveau noch keine Bedrohung. Der nachfolgende Chart zeigt - als grobe Schätzung - welcher Renditeanstieg das Aufwärtsmomentum der wichtigen Indizes wie DAX , DJIA und Nikkei erst bremsen, dann stoppen und später revidieren wird.
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Ten-year benchmark at highest since March has traders nervous
Looming supply glut from sovereign issuers damps sentiment
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to the highest level in more than nine months, leading Bill Gross at Janus Henderson Group to declare a bond bear market just ahead of a deluge of sovereign debt sales.
The benchmark U.S. yield rose as much as six basis points to 2.54 percent, a level last seen in March, and the Treasury curve steepened the most in three weeks, as a looming glut of bond supply from the U.S., the U.K., Japan and Germany coincided with a surprise cut in purchases of long-dated Japanese government bonds by the Bank of Japan.
Even though central bank watchers said the BOJ’s actions aren’t interpreted as an imminent shift from ultra-accommodative policy by Japan’s monetary authority, it’s yet another sign of central banks stepping back from global bond markets -- just as the U.S. is about to sell the most debt in eight years. Add to that rising market expectations around inflation, and traders are starting to wager that Treasuries are about to break out of their tightest range in a half-century.
“We’re seeing a lot of overseas buyers who would come in every time we’d have a move close to these levels who aren’t coming in anymore,” said Michael Franzese, New York-based head of fixed-income trading at MCAP LLC, a broker-dealer. “That’s kind of scaring me a little bit. One eye is constantly on the exit button.”
The 10-year yield moved above 2.5 percent earlier Tuesday before paring its gain, and then resumed its upward shift in U.S. trading hours, making fresh highs. It was at 2.542 percent as of 12:16 p.m. in New York. The yield curve from two to 10 years steepened by 5.4 basis points, the most in over a year, to 57.43 basis points.
Stockmarktes vs. Bond Markets:
Treasury yields pare climb after better-than-expected 10-year note auction
Treasury buying picked up, pushing yields slightly lower, Wednesday afternoon following an auction of 10-year Treasury notes that drew healthier demand than had been expected. An unconfirmed report earlier in the session indicated that China may be considering halting or slowing Treasury purchases, which had cast a pall on the market, driving prices lower and yields higher, as investors appeared to shun U.S. assets. However, market participants described appetite for the 10-year notes as solid. "In the context of a wild and messy few days in interest rates, the 10 year note auction was good," wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer for the Bleakley Advisory Group. The so-called bid-to-cover ratio for the auction stood at 2.69, the highest since 2016. Bid-to-cover ratios are a gauge of appetite for the debt sale, the number represents the proportion of bids received to bids accepted. Treasury auctions can be a litmus test of the state of the bond market. In recent trade, the 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.25% was up at 2.569%, versus 2.542% on late Tuesday. The 2-year note yield TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.01% was slightly higher at 1.973%, from 1.968%. The 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, +0.36% was at 2.910%, from 2.883%. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-pare-climb-after-better-than-expected-10-year-note-auction-2018-01-10?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts