Short term, Medium Term and Longer Term Outlook on Ripple

27. Juli 2017

This will be a short term outlook (up to 31st July), medium term outlook (up to 5th August) and longer term outlook (up to 20th August) over the next month for Ripple.

Short Term
First I would like to bring your attention to the bearish pendant formation which is aqua-coloured. The price is near completion of the pendant but still needs a price increase to 19cents to complete the pattern. I believe this will happen as within the pendant, an inverted head and shoulders pattern is forming and to complete the right shoulder, price needs to increase. This re-affirms the bearish pendant pattern. On the MACD histogram, it has formed a higher low as indicated by the yellow trendline signalling that selling momentum is fading. However, there is some conflict as it shows the fast ma crossing downwards the slow ma. I believe that this signal is not strong as this is a trend confirmation signal. By looking at the ADX, we can see that we are near the lows (Lowest point given by red horizontal line, highest point given by green horizontal line) and that we are not in a trending market but ranging market, thereby nulling the ma cross as a factor in our deduction. Further pointing to an increase to 19cents up to 31st July would be the decreasing selling volume over the last 3 days. From these factors, I believe a price to be expected is 20.765cents in the short term. You may ask why it is not 19 cents as that is where the triangle ends, but an inverted head and shoulders pattern signifies a breakout and therefore the take profit target is at the previous high. Again, the question is asked, if it is a breakout, why the price would not surge past 20.7cents. This leads to the medium term outlook and my reasoning why the breakout is false and is a "fade breakout".

Medium Term
In the Medium term outlook we begin on the 31st-1st of August. This is where segwit2 or split decision will occur for Bitcoin. On July 21st there seemed to be a general consensus no split was to occur and segwit2 will occur, but fear and uncertainty has risen again as more people oppose the idea of segwit2 pointing to a split (If you would like to read more, here is a link: thenextweb.com/contributors/2017/07/24/ultimate-guide-upcoming-fork-thats-splitting-bitcoin-community/
From this uncertainty and likely chance of a split, I believe bitcoin's value will fall, if not from the result then from the uncertainty. Altcoins have some correlation to bitcoin and therefore I believe Ripple will follow suit. The next question is, how far the price will fall. A price target 1 for the fall would be at 16.412cents. This price target has been forecasted from the bearish pendant (aqua colour), where the magnitude of the move after the pendant should be the same as the move going into the pendant. A second more ambitious price target for the fall would be at about 12.5cents (yellow line), this is the base of the pendant that will be discussed for long-term outlook.

Long-Term
Within the month or more specifically 5th August to end of August, I will attempt to forecast the price. On a longer scale look, a bullish pendant has formed (shown in yellow). After the completion of the short-term and mid-term price action, the bullish pendant will be complete. At this point, price will break-out from the pendant and move the same magnitude as the move leading into the pendant. (Please note that after the medium-term move, the price could range for a while, be it 1 day or 15days, be patient for the breakout). I believe the price after the breakout will increase to an ambitious target of 52.208cents. Always manage your positions, an initial take profit can be taken at 30cents for those that are more risk-averse.


This is my first time posting an idea on Trading View, if i'm missing anything or you believe something different will happen please let me know as i always look forward to feedback.

27. Juli 2017

Anmerkung

You can't see the yellow pendant in the interactive chart, but it can be seen in the screenshot.
Sorry for that!