Bitcoin - A Prophecy of the Future
Leading up to/starting now the narrative will immediately change everywhere around the _blockchain_ itself and how it's important to develop technology as history progresses and evolves.
The implication being one wishes to mitigate interest in the blockchain itself in favour of walled garden, off-chain solutions.
1. Blockchain BAD
2. INSTANT and FEELESS OMG Lightning Network GOOD
3. 1,800x cheaper than Bitcoin Cash!!!!!
Before this happens BTC will be dumped to an extreme.
Bitcoin Cash will have its market annihilated amidst the negative sentiment abounding regarding actually using the blockchain.
Bitcoin Cash will have to survive in the long term and win demand organically.
Price will be driven down with tremendous pressure and dozens of bull traps along the way.
Time will be used to wear you down so that you capitulate your core holdings and lose everything.
Bitcoin has been an ICO for the Lightning Network since late 2016 and every stage of price action has revolved around this plan.
Lightning Network is intended to be the future world's controlled central banking system, and you early adopters and miners are not to be holding a seat of power at the table.
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Take a look at the 15m chart around when CME Futures opened and then go have a cigarette.
"The evolution of blockchain"
1. I am an idiot and my analysis is very often substandard and incorrect
2. We're probably going to bounce and moon mission continues because Bitcoin
However, you should give the above scenario some consideration and balance how much money you can afford to lose, and lose forever, against what size of a reward you think you can get either immediately, or over a 1 month, 3 month, 6 month, or 2 year bear market.
You should consider, if you need liquidity to survive in your personal life, if you can afford to lose everything because the rush to cash out wires to USD is a "panic to the fire exit" situation and suddenly their USD liquidity is gone because there's an accounting balance in the market the size of the USD Tether pool.
And as you consider these things, you should stay calm, take a step back, and remember that it's the oscillation between fear and greed that destroys retail traders.
You're trading against algorithms that have no feelings and millions of dollars in research behind their strategies and methodologies, while you're constantly either afraid or wanting to get rich.
When it comes down, if it comes down, it's going to happen $1,000 every 15 minutes and bounces are going to be a lot more terrifyingly non-existent than you're used to.
For huge players, short positions are even more profitable than longs.
I don't care what anyone thinks about me. Reputation and fame are worthless.
Here's reality, if the double top at $11,700 was our bull trap, this is seriously an exceptionally dangerous situation. Last night's high volume dump was, in my opinion, too violent to count as a stop run.
What market makers are doing is punishing dip buyers and breakout buyers while also destroying short-tards in the process.
The intention is to wear you down with time as you watch your net worth be annihilated.
The reason is that they are creating fear and are about to move on to panic.
After panic comes capitulation.
This is the influence of Wall Street that you all were so happy for in November and December.
Welcome to reality. They are the winners. That's why they're Wall Street.
You're here to buy _their_ bags. They're not here to buy _yours_.
You are amidst "extinguish" of embrace-extend-extinguish
The stage that's coming next is when US banks close the doors to to fiat-in and fiat-out from crypto exchanges like Coinbase, Gemini, and Bitstamp.
And of course, there's the hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Tether that are going to come to a major accounting problem when the rush for the fire exit commences.
Don't worry. If you aren't afraid yet, panic will set in soon.
How much trembling fear in your hearts that really represents.
It's something I have discussed numerous times over the last few months, but people have been unable to hear it through the smug self satisfaction of Bitcoin entering its hilariously inadequate new paradigm.
Everything about what's happening now is about punishing bulltards and moonbois.
From the perspective of attaining moar BTC, they make more during downtrends because. for example, $1,000,000 in PnL is ~125 BTC when settled at $8,000 as opposed to ~65 when settling at $16,000.
The good news about where we're at, if there is any, is a dump to $5,500-$6,500 over the next few days followed by a bounce would be indicative of Phase B Secondary Test Wyckoff accumulation at this level.
Considering the strength of the bounces at $7,500 and $8,200 I think this scenario may be the most likely.
However, Wyckoff's principle of Cause and Effect also states that in order to have an effect, you must first have a cause, and the cause must be in proportion to the effect.
As it stands now, if this price action doesn't tell you that market makers are aiming to trigger capitulation, your head is merely in the sand because you're either:
1) Stuck in an underwater wrong;
2) A delirious moonboy; or
3) Both 1 and 2.
Well, the caveat inherent in that logic is what if it doesn't bounce at $8,000? The same logic applies to all the "BTFD HODL" Chads who think/thought $13k, $11k, $10k, $9k, $8k, and now $7k would be a "back up the truck" buying situation because of that sweet $5,000 V bottom bounce for free riches on the way to $50,000 by March 30.
See where the saying "Bulls get rich, bears get rich, pigs get slaughtered." was born from?
Right now in my opinion this is a bull scenario. Yes, a bull scenario. Because it would indicate a secondary test of lows in Phase B Wyckoff accumulation, is the bottom of the channel, is a meaningful dip below the 1.272 of the current move and the 1.618 of the $13k-->$9k cycle.
If we do not get a meaningful bounce in the $6,500-$6,900 range then we will break the bottom of the channel, fail a re-test, and a trip to $4,800-$5,600 will happen before people think it can, and it won't bounce there either.
Wake up, bulltards. Bitcoin was a moon mission because market makers made it a moon mission.
When they make it a doom mission, what is it? They're making an absolute fortune on selling while you keep trying to buy.
The way price action has been set up around the CFTC/SEC hearings make me feel like this was triggering capitulation in advance of either bullish news or no news from the events.
That being said, the futures market tells us a lot and currently Bitmex and Okex are either in slight backwardation or parity.
I'd feel a lot more comfortable with backing up the truck on a long if futures were at a $500-1,000 discount to market price.
When we were at the top, June futures were trading for as high as $23,000+.
$7,000 has now become resistance.
Price action has been rejected from $7,100, the 1.272 Fib, and Gambit has printed a resistance dot on the 3H, which has been a very reliable indicator.
If $7,100 can't be regained in the next ~6 hours then the greatest pain possible is coming to crypto traders.
Pray with me that we're merely getting bamboozled into capitulation for the purposes of an all new bull run, because at least this cloud then will have a silver lining.
Listen, price action dictates that frankly, we're fucked.
It's the bottom of the channel from the 2017 bull run and it isn't bouncing. It's going to break through and find a bounce, hopefully a massive one, at prior support/daily VPVR establishment $5,400-$5,600.
Will either be the buying opportunity of a lifetime or hysterical pain.
The Bitcoin bull is dead.
That went pretty well, didn't it?
Read the annotations on the graph. It says everything.
You have been conditioned to buy the dip and expect honey badger. Yet, you haven't realized the divergences that lie in the nature of things now compared to when prices retraced heavily in the past.
Mount Finex BTC long positions are at an all time high.
Buying this dip is now a crowded trade.
$7,600 MUST be broken through and broken through convincingly or we are by no means done.
In the time it's taken me to type this the price has gone down $400. $7,100 absolutely must be regained.
Don't kid yourself. No institutions are going to start marking up BTC while the world is in the first two days of a 2008-level financial catastrophe.
The fact that you can't buy shit with BTC from merchants because Core constricted throughput to make fees and confirmation times so expensive and long is going to weigh heavily into the nature of "demand" during crisis, as people exit to their national currency to, you know, survive.
Walk down to the grocery store and try to buy yourself some lettuce with your memepoints and see how little anyone in the real world gives a fuck about any cryptocurrency.
Consider this excerpt of history from the Bitstamp 3-Day chart.
400 days and a 90% re-tracement and the worst you could have bought at was $1,000.
Bitstamp 3 Day in 2014
We have greed appearing in a major correction situation. How dangerous.
I listened to the same sorts of hearings that were a prelude to UIGEA and they used a very similar rhetoric.
"Click your mouse and lose your house" was the saying back then.
This has been a half hour of "protecting Americans".
You're the food.
Why would they protect you?
Biggest target is ICOs, which is obvious and why is obvious.
When questioned about volatility, Clayton spoke very carefully and said something to the effect of "We don't know what's driving the volatility. It's not tied to sovereign currencies... it's tied to... something else, and that's one of the things we're here for"
He spoke very very carefully. Clayton understands crypto extremely well. As well as any of us do. This is obvious in his words and demeanor.
CFTC has open subpoenas with Mount Finex and Tether, and yet, Tether has not been discussed in this meeting so far.
I'll let you hash over the implications of this for yourself, but...
Euphoria and greed, at $7,000.
2. When questioned on volatility, Clayton tap danced around Tether
3. Idiot panel managed to ask questions about every single buzzword except Tether
4. Open CFTC subpoenas from a month ago.
Take a look at your canary. It's dead in the cage.
As I've said many, many times over the last few months, when there's _real_ heat from regulators and Governments, they _don't_ give information away in the media.
Instead, it comes suddenly. Just ask BTC-e and Pokerstars/Full Tilt et al.
I am hoping we are amidst Wyckoff accumulation and are looking at a pattern like this.
Since everything has been so bearish and selling pressure has been so high, it's also possible secondary test goes below $5,800.
If no bounce in these two areas, then this $7,500-$5,500 range is merely just more re-distribution before further down.
See the problem, though? It's a little too obvious, and a little too easy. I have a hard time believing market makers are going to make things that simple.
It's important to look at long term charts.
Bitstamp 12H chart had our top $1,000 away from the median of the Bollinger's.
Unlike last time we were at $6,000ish, back on you know, November 13 (100% retrace in 90 days so bull), we now have a death cross between MA50 and MA200.
It also has to be pointed out that Aroon, which is a very strong indicator if you're good at savant-reading squiggly lines, had the blue (positive trendline) merely register a blip off the floor after a $3,000 bounce.
If you look at Bistamp 3D, there are zero buying signals except for the fact that RSI hit the floor and is now pointing upwards. That being said, it would seem we're less than a day into the current 3-day candle, so this evaluation can change between here and Friday.
And the weekly is even scarier. Compare this to the price action and RSI (blue line of Willy21 is smoothed RSI) on previous dumps.
You should be questioning absolutely everything you're hearing and reading right now, including what I'm saying to you.
This is a really dangerous situation. If you are long anywhere in the $7,000-$8,500 range I implore you to at least hedge with a low leverage short.
"Buy the dip" is how you make a lot of money on a bull run and "sell every top" is how you lose a lot of money. Short sellers get destroyed for exactly this reason.
The problem is the BTFD strategy destroys retail traders on the way down because you can only buy and can't sell.
Not only are leveraged short options difficult and risky, but you're also conditioned to "HODL", meaning you won't sell your position to cash on Stamp/Gemini/GDAX/Kraken and buy back at lower pivots like the big guns do.
Market makers make money from selling while retail can only make money from buying.
With how bearish things are over the last 50 days, this being one of the longest corrections in Bitcoin history, you should have no expectations that a V bottom after a 70% correction is going to complete valid.
Take a look at shitcoins like Ripple , Verge, and Tron.
It's not that Bitcoin is a shitcoin, but all coins follow a same pattern of supports being broken through when the market makers have exited huge long positions and are entering huge short positions.
The ultimate goal is to make money and accumulate value, and this is a zero-sum game.
You need to have a "doom until proven otherwise on long term trends" approach to this or you are opening yourself up to be deceived into buying tops because of the ugly greed they're exploiting in your little human hearts.
But, there are no signs of accumulation going on on the charts and demand is extremely limited. There's going to be a further obstacle in the short and medium term future when the narrative changes from "Blockchain is disruptive technology" to "Blockchain is antiquated and you don't want VHS when you can have DVD and don't want DVD when you have Blueray!" hyperbolic FUD.
Right now Segshit Bitcoin (BTC) is the index of a falling market and everyone follows in its shadow. The chart patterns are all damn near identical across everything.
Furthermore, this entire cycle has taught me the importance of selling spot positions at pivot tops. Although my cash-short exit point on my BCH position is ~$2,000 I deeply regret believing in the "hold spot it's de future" narrative and could have sold everything 35% higher or better and had considerably more coins on buy back.
Reality check: $8,000-$9,000 may very well be the top for the forseeable future.
Listening to moon euphoria is dangerous. This is not a bull market you're buying the dip in. Instead, this local top is a pop to _sell_.
That's the way you should look at it until it proves otherwise.
And yes, it is _starting_ to prove otherwise. Market Makers are harsh teachers for both short and longs.
Bearish divergences are emerging and since CME/CBOE Futures opened and the market makers from traditional markets got involved in Bitcoin, the market makers have been _considerably_ more aggressive in driving prices towards lows/stop hunting.
I believe the overall market trend, after more than 50 days of selling pressure, counts as overwhelmingly bear. There is no reason to believe that this most obvious reversal, where you had 12+ hours to buy, is "the" reversal.
Market makers know that price going up draws in buyers, and of course, the higher you sell at, the more money you make.
When demand is exhausted at these levels they will start liquidating top wrongers.
Double top on longer time frame at 8600 is significant, yet the dip back to where we are has not violated secondary trendline and oscillator patterns and price action show a fractal.
Like, bluntly, this bounce has moved a lot in price but has not been that strong. Volume has been high, but this pattern is more likely to be distribution than accumulation if you think about it.
The problem is, does the MM squeeze to $8,800 before we drop?
Please keep in mind that since Wall Street came to Bitcoin that Bitcoin has been trading more aggressively. It has always traded aggressively, but the way it now hunts highs and lows and exploits breakout and breakdown trades is very distinct.
But hey, if it wants to moon here, I'm down to just push the long button and collect free money too.
Dow Jones, Amazon, Google, SPX, and many other items in conventional markets immediately retested lows after their enormous dumps and actually broke lower.
Ask yourself, is Bitcoin a special snowflake? Are people really using crypto in this world to the degree that would establish the demand required to support a market cap of this size when the markets are under duress?
The fact that Market Makers kept price iceberged at $8,600 shows that they don't want to let trapped longs from $9,000 escape.
Mount Finex margin long positions are at an all time high as everyone got their smart hats on and has been "buyin the dip" in advance of moon mission.
I can tell you that when we crashed from 5k to $2,800 the first time, buying the dip around $3,200 was considered ridiculous as everyone was bearish.
One bounce after 50 days of selling and everyone has their smart hat on thinking they're on the moon mission for $50,000.
It is unbelievably dangerous. Have you thought about how dangerous it really is?
SPX and Dow retested lower lows after a more violent dump from a more manic bull market.
Bitcoin Cash may be one of the most bearish markets in the upcoming future, and now a fall from $1,300 to $1,000 is no longer merely $300, it's ~30%.
$9,000 will not be rejected twice and when it goes, it will go fast. Buyers will be drug in.
Bear market for Bitcoin is likely over and you can go back to blindly longing anywhere and waiting for gains.
$9,600-$9,800 levels are the key test. If $10,000 is regained then it's moon. I think things are literally back to normal and correction is over. You're about to be made to feel that way, either way.
However, if it is unable to break through $9,000 now, the heat is on.
Otherwise there will be no secondary test of the lows and you will simply be conditioned to FOMO.
When/if it drops, it will happen suddenly and it will be $1,000 an hour, so be careful.
Market makers are going to scare BTFD moonboys looking for 30k+ in March in a tremendous way.
We now have a longer head and shoulders that is completing as the reversal pattern it should.
You've been told to gather and pray to the moon. Price is $8,000 and it's going to $30,000 in March. It's an auto buy, duh?
At the end of a bubble collapse pattern, the bull run after the dust settles is a bear trap. People think it's a sucker's rally.
Its not obvious for everyone to get rich and there's a lot of doubt.
You should be extremely concerned right now. The best case scenario is a re-test of lows around 7200. A realistic scenario is a re-test of lows around $5,200.
A realistic scenario is also a re-test of $5,800 and a fall to $2,000 or $3,000.
If you think it's too inconceivable, well, you're about to conceive of it in real life.
Beyond speculation, how is it a "Store of Value"? When it's being used, it's slower and more expensive than a wire transfer at the bank.
Eight thousand dollars for a private key in a distributed database that says "1 BTC"?
It's about time people woke up. Fundamental value for Bitcoin far exceeds $8,000. Far, far exceeds.
But not while it's crippled like a shitcoin and nobody is using it.
Bitcoin is a demand-backed currency, and there's nobody actually using it.
When moon, sir?
You know, the one they've given you two weeks to buy the dip of, because you're such nice guys and they like you so much, right?
1. You trade under resistance
2. You trade under MA 200, which is under MA50
3. You trade under the median of the Bollinger bands.
4. Automatic reaction was a ~70% bounce
5. $8800 formation is nice that it broke one memeline, but it's a lower high
6. IT'S UNDER 9000!!!!! (DBZ memery)
You need to trade above the 50MA for it to be a resumed bull run.
$11,200 is about as far away as Heaven is to humans.
Have to fatten them before the slaughterhouse.
Breaking ascending wedge memetriangle.
Buy volume bad. Sell volume better.
Don't buy the dip. Look for 7.7-7.5k before even considering it, in my opinion.
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Everyone can post day after day and predict 10 hours ahead. But,.. saying BTC will drop below 2k,.. or BCH will go beyond BTC is just stupid. We are day traders and so is M&H,... so why predict stupid thinks, if he was wrong so many time for more than week ahead.
Yes BTC can come to 2k,... in a year, month or never,... but,... This is day trading forum. Like BCH TAs, just new TA and TA fter initial one. If you are wrong, just close it and start another. And i read about some poor basterd on this post shorting BTC and loosing everything with margin.
I do not care for moons, i think one can only predict day ahead at most, that is why i am really mad with this kind of predictions
About situation - this is very long the way down and this is normal to take a time to recovery and normal to retest the bottoms (Wyckoff scheme).
About now - today is positive day because BTC trying to clear important resistance and its positive event.