Signal (required): OPEN short
1) Thesis (why short, “JP-style”)
WTI is in a structural oversupply + weak-products regime: crude can draw here and there, but gasoline/distillates builds keep telling you demand/cracks are soft → refiners cut runs later → crude demand weakens with lag. In that regime, the clean play is sell rallies into supply until price proves otherwise (daily reclaim of key resistance).
2) Key data points to anchor the short
Big products build = bearish: latest print you shared showed gasoline +6.397M and products building multiple weeks (classic “demand not clearing supply” signal).
Spare-capacity “shock absorber” narrative: EIA methodology revision implied higher effective OPEC capacity / spare → geopolitics carries less pricing power, rallies get capped (unless disruption is large & persistent).
Russia discounted barrels: deep Urals discount pressure competes into Asia → benchmark headwind (bearish carry).
Venezuela floating storage buffer: more oil “parked” + China buffer reduces immediate squeeze risk → spikes possible, but harder to sustain.
Macro backdrop: softening growth signals (PMI/unemployment creeping up in your calendar screenshots) keeps demand expectations soft.
IMF macro assumption: baseline expects fuel commodity prices down and oil price drifting lower over 2025–26; futures curve implies oil around high-60s avg 2025 then lower later (macro headwind to sustained upside).
3) Levels (actionable)
Current reference: WTI futures around 58.4–58.6.
Resistance / sell zone (preferred entry):
59.5–60.5 = main “fade” zone (prior supply + MA band from your 1D memory)
If squeeze extends: 61.5–62.5 = “last line” before trend damage
Support / triggers:
57.8–57.0 = breakdown trigger area (lose it → trend continuation)
55.5–55.0 = first major target/support
53–52 = extension target if macro + inventories stay bearish
4) Trade plan (two execution paths)
A) Sell the rally (higher probability)
Entry: scale into short 59.5 → 60.5
Stop/Invalidation: daily close > 62.6
Targets: 57.8 → 55.5 → 55.0 (trail after T1)
B) Sell the breakdown (momentum)
Entry: 4H close below 57.0
Stop: back above 58.2
Targets: 55.5 then 55.0
5) Events & catalysts (next window)
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: next release shifted to Mon Dec 29 (schedule change) — this is the #1 catalyst for trend continuation/reversal.
OPEC+ compliance / compensation talks: next key check-in Jan 4, 2026 (can spark squeeze headlines, but also confirm “pause/discipline”).
Geopolitics headline risk: Reuters notes current bid partly driven by geopolitics + strong US data; this is why we prefer selling into defined resistance rather than chasing red candles.
6) What would flip me LONG?
Daily close above 62.6 + subsequent hold (breaks the “sell rallies” structure), ideally with products drawing (gasoline/distillates) not just crude.
1) Thesis (why short, “JP-style”)
WTI is in a structural oversupply + weak-products regime: crude can draw here and there, but gasoline/distillates builds keep telling you demand/cracks are soft → refiners cut runs later → crude demand weakens with lag. In that regime, the clean play is sell rallies into supply until price proves otherwise (daily reclaim of key resistance).
2) Key data points to anchor the short
Big products build = bearish: latest print you shared showed gasoline +6.397M and products building multiple weeks (classic “demand not clearing supply” signal).
Spare-capacity “shock absorber” narrative: EIA methodology revision implied higher effective OPEC capacity / spare → geopolitics carries less pricing power, rallies get capped (unless disruption is large & persistent).
Russia discounted barrels: deep Urals discount pressure competes into Asia → benchmark headwind (bearish carry).
Venezuela floating storage buffer: more oil “parked” + China buffer reduces immediate squeeze risk → spikes possible, but harder to sustain.
Macro backdrop: softening growth signals (PMI/unemployment creeping up in your calendar screenshots) keeps demand expectations soft.
IMF macro assumption: baseline expects fuel commodity prices down and oil price drifting lower over 2025–26; futures curve implies oil around high-60s avg 2025 then lower later (macro headwind to sustained upside).
3) Levels (actionable)
Current reference: WTI futures around 58.4–58.6.
Resistance / sell zone (preferred entry):
59.5–60.5 = main “fade” zone (prior supply + MA band from your 1D memory)
If squeeze extends: 61.5–62.5 = “last line” before trend damage
Support / triggers:
57.8–57.0 = breakdown trigger area (lose it → trend continuation)
55.5–55.0 = first major target/support
53–52 = extension target if macro + inventories stay bearish
4) Trade plan (two execution paths)
A) Sell the rally (higher probability)
Entry: scale into short 59.5 → 60.5
Stop/Invalidation: daily close > 62.6
Targets: 57.8 → 55.5 → 55.0 (trail after T1)
B) Sell the breakdown (momentum)
Entry: 4H close below 57.0
Stop: back above 58.2
Targets: 55.5 then 55.0
5) Events & catalysts (next window)
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: next release shifted to Mon Dec 29 (schedule change) — this is the #1 catalyst for trend continuation/reversal.
OPEC+ compliance / compensation talks: next key check-in Jan 4, 2026 (can spark squeeze headlines, but also confirm “pause/discipline”).
Geopolitics headline risk: Reuters notes current bid partly driven by geopolitics + strong US data; this is why we prefer selling into defined resistance rather than chasing red candles.
6) What would flip me LONG?
Daily close above 62.6 + subsequent hold (breaks the “sell rallies” structure), ideally with products drawing (gasoline/distillates) not just crude.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.