Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #1 - VX Falling Wedge
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I posted a similar chart last week, but as I'm looking at things after today's action I still think this is the most important thing in the market right now so it's going at #1 even if I don't plan to trade it directly. I wouldn't recommend trading VIX or UVXY, maybe VX futures but that's not for me.
Instead, I used the VX futures to determine direction on ES. This will make things very simple if we actually move this week unlike today. VX has been hanging around even throughout the recent rally to ATH. I think this is noteworthy, but still need confirmation it's going to continue to stick around and potentially gain strength.
This pattern gives us the confirmation we need, it should tell all. If we get the upside break and it can take out the 19.20 level, I would expect it to continue up to at least 22.60. That's the recent swing high and is also just below the flag pole target. If VX fails and falls below the wedge, that would also mean it broke below 16.45, which is the line in the sand. If VX can't hold there, it's time for more risk on.
TLDR:
VX below 19.20 = bullish for ES
VX below 16.45 = really bullish for ES
VX above 19.20 = bearish for ES
VX above 22.60 = really bearish for ES
Instead, I used the VX futures to determine direction on ES. This will make things very simple if we actually move this week unlike today. VX has been hanging around even throughout the recent rally to ATH. I think this is noteworthy, but still need confirmation it's going to continue to stick around and potentially gain strength.
This pattern gives us the confirmation we need, it should tell all. If we get the upside break and it can take out the 19.20 level, I would expect it to continue up to at least 22.60. That's the recent swing high and is also just below the flag pole target. If VX fails and falls below the wedge, that would also mean it broke below 16.45, which is the line in the sand. If VX can't hold there, it's time for more risk on.
TLDR:
VX below 19.20 = bullish for ES
VX below 16.45 = really bullish for ES
VX above 19.20 = bearish for ES
VX above 22.60 = really bearish for ES
Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht
Target #2 hit. Now it's time to see if VX can clear 22.60 and keep going or not. I thought ES may be a little bit lower when VX hit 22.60, but there's a lot of support around 5700, so I'd say the levels to watch moving forward are 22.60 on VX and 5700 on ES.
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Disclaimer:
The ideas I post do not always represent my positions and they are intended for educational purposes.
ko-fi.com/advancedplays/tiers
Short Thesis:
advancedplays.com/short-thesis.pdf
Disclaimer:
The ideas I post do not always represent my positions and they are intended for educational purposes.
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