USOIL. Possible exhaustion in the uptrend

FX:USOIL   Rohöl CFD's (WTI)
155 4
On a Daily USOIL chart we can see a so-called "Three white soldiers" pattern. Normally, it appears after an important correction and showing the beginning of the up-trend.

When appearing on the supposed top its meaning is the opposite: an exhaustion of an existing up-trend and an incoming correction. Also, Daily RSI shows overbought and next important level of 51.72 is a 161.8 Fibonacci level from Wave number 1. Finally, if we check a weekly chart, it also has an important bearish divergence.

I´m putting s Sell limit at 51.80 level, eventually if will be activated overnight. My first target is around 47 figures

Taking into account the current price levels, some new fundamental factors as the first oil rigs increase in 3 months and a small but increase in US oil production, the correction may easily tag 200 MA at 41 figures.

Good luck and let the market force be with us!

P.S. SL at 55 figures
Trade ist aktiv: Mario Draghi dropped a Euro for a while but I´m not sure if this is a definitive reversal on Oil. anyway, I activated a Sell order before Draghi´s speech and moved it to profitability now.

Not expecting anything interesting before the US session anyway...
Trade ist aktiv: Advancing really well so far. Next tough level to break: 50 figures. They can reverse it there but looks like people are starting to play out the Vanacies report from yesterday and the Job Claims from today. They had nothing to do with the Non-fam Payrolls from last week so we may have a USD rally before the FED. If so and if tomorrow we have a new increase in oil rigs, Oil can get hurt...

But first, let´s break and secure 50 figures!
Trade wurde manuell geschlossen: Closing 1/2 of position here
Trade wurde manuell geschlossen: Set a TP at 51 figures. Looks like it was definitely reversed at the beginning of the US session.
Trade ist aktiv: Half of a position still in short. This half is almost a half of my whole account so some important amount here =)

I don´t remove a TP from 51 figures but on the US session they couldn´t really reverse the oil towards the top, so, although the decline has been stopped today, on Friday there may be some important profit take.

Will add some shorts once it crosses and secures 50.31 which is an 88 MA
Trade ist aktiv: Added shorts at 50.30 figures. We are doing well so far but now facing a key resistance. Same as yesterday: looks like they still haven't decided what they want to do with that oil at the USA. Probably, some big money is in play: they were buying after 50 figures and now found themselves bull-trapped.

Anyway, eventually we break down today or on Monday. Those who are not short yet, I would wait at least until 49.30 where all MAs and key resistances which held oil above 50 have been broken and secured
Trade ist aktiv: Key support sorry!
Trade ist aktiv: Slowly advancing to the downside.

I´ll just update on which chart I´m following and some details on my positions.
Currently keeping:
1 Full position from 51.50
1 Full position from 50.31

Already closed:
1 full position 51.50-->50.50
1/4 Position 49.30-->49.00

Expecting a small push back on Monday and then add some more shorts to finish the job
Trade ist aktiv: Short update:

Oil may be retracing to the old ascending trend line which is now located at approximately 50 figures. If breaks and holds the day above 49, I will close one full position opened at 50.50.
Trade ist aktiv: Nasty API report: all stocks increased in summer, time with the biggest demand on gasoline. Waiting for tomorrow´s EIA which can finally sink oil below 47!
Trade ist aktiv: I closed the 50.50 position at TP1 which was 47.50. Still keeping the other 51.50 position in play
Trade wurde manuell geschlossen: Closing the 51.50 position at 48.25. Waiting to see how market evolves to consider further actions

Current picture: as you can see we are about to get rid if a descending trend. Maybe just a test and we go down now or maybe we bounce from the 61.8 Fibo line and go somewhere to the 50.
Our options are:
- We can get to 78% fibo at 49.80, test 50 and go back on a laarge Wave C. As Wave A was quite short, only 2.5 figures, Wave C should be bigger and that´s where we can arrive to 43 figures.
- We don´t get rid of the descending trend and keep a slo-mo movement towards the 50% Fibo. If that happens, I will close my shorts and open longs, targeting same 50 figures.
- The worst option is that we go back to 50s, break and get back into the ascending trend. That will invalidate all setups and open a room for another run to 51.50-52 figures. It is the worst option in terms of time. Why is it possible? Because if the FED doesn´t hike, USD can be easily grounded by the market. If Yellen´s tone is dowish, it will be heavily grounded and all commodities should run up.

Here are the Fibo lines from the Wave 5. As you can see, 50% is very close to the 200MA on 4H Timeframe, also very close to the trendline. A breakout of this huge support will allow to talk about going to 40 figures. For now, this is the target for this short.
possible... red trend,,, middle of the monthly channel
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