USDJPY: Japan's recession and the return of the US economy
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Technical analysis:
The temporary downtrend line has been broken by the price line. Currently, a smaller bearish pattern is forming, but there is a trend reversal in the RSI. If there's a small amplitude sideways, the two indicators, EMA 34 and EMA 89, won't have a significant impact. Fibonacci generates effective psychological resistances, which provide valuable entry information.
the latest news from the market:
Investors overlooked the US ISM Services PMI's disappointing release on Monday, and the US Dollar has regained positive traction, acting as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. The intraday USD uptick could be attributed to an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields but is expected to remain limited as the markets anticipate an imminent pause in the Federal Reserve's policy tightening cycle.
The markets are now pricing in a higher chance that the US central bank will leave interest rates unchanged at the end of a two-day policy meeting on June 14, which may hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Additionally, the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening in the markets may keep a lid on any significant appreciation move for the USD/JPY pair, at least for now.
Moreover, the current cautious mood around the equity markets may favor the JPY's relative safe-haven status. However, a more dovish stance adopted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could continue to undermine the JPY and limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair. As there is no relevant macro data from the US, aggressive traders should be cautious due to the mixed fundamental backdrop.
The temporary downtrend line has been broken by the price line. Currently, a smaller bearish pattern is forming, but there is a trend reversal in the RSI. If there's a small amplitude sideways, the two indicators, EMA 34 and EMA 89, won't have a significant impact. Fibonacci generates effective psychological resistances, which provide valuable entry information.
the latest news from the market:
Investors overlooked the US ISM Services PMI's disappointing release on Monday, and the US Dollar has regained positive traction, acting as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. The intraday USD uptick could be attributed to an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields but is expected to remain limited as the markets anticipate an imminent pause in the Federal Reserve's policy tightening cycle.
The markets are now pricing in a higher chance that the US central bank will leave interest rates unchanged at the end of a two-day policy meeting on June 14, which may hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Additionally, the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening in the markets may keep a lid on any significant appreciation move for the USD/JPY pair, at least for now.
Moreover, the current cautious mood around the equity markets may favor the JPY's relative safe-haven status. However, a more dovish stance adopted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could continue to undermine the JPY and limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair. As there is no relevant macro data from the US, aggressive traders should be cautious due to the mixed fundamental backdrop.
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