USDJPY Projections week of 8/12

12. Aug. 2019

USDJPY

Bearish momentum
Potential for confirmation of mid term bear trend
C leg bear trend fractal
Important level of support

I'd rather not get into a habit of projecting consolidation periods, but it certainly feels like a possibility for this pair. Price action is attempting to put in new lows to confirm a larger overall bearish trend that started somewhere around October of last year. This will be challenged by a very important level of support, a level that has held true multiple times in the past. The C leg of the big bear trend is trending itself, and looks primed for relief right at the support level. The blue lines indicate the range in which I'd expect to see a complex pullback in the form of a rising channel, or something of that sort.
The support level is not one I'd expect to be blown by, but if there is a break and close below the blue range, I'd be careful of a fake-out. If not a fake, the breakout could offer some nice PIP gains to the downside.