USDJPY Support and Resistance Levels to Trade

18. Aug. 2023

Hello! Hope you're trading went well today on USDJPY

Before we get into the key levels and Bullish and Bearish trade setup.

We need to know, What can kill this Trade today. Yes, Japanese Central Bank Intervention, if the BOJ decided to do intervention today as they have unexpectedly in the past, be careful of the 3 Hours before the London session and around mid day London Session for this. If not beware anyways, this can kill a bullish setup or alternatively massively force a strong Bearish setup. However bare in mind US Yields are still giving real strength to the dollar so that is the Bullish case, however also the reason the BOJ might want to intervene.

Now that I have instilled the right amount of Fear, let's see if we can over come it by taking some strong Risk to Reward Setups and automate the Emotion out of this.

So lets get into the Important Daily Support and Resistance Levels to watch on the USDJPY

According the the SMTV Indicator.

VWAP
The price has bounced off the Weekly VWAP Several times today to the upside, and has crossed below over the last day and is currently testing below it again.

50 MA
The price has currently crossed below the 50 MA the last 2 days.

Main Thesis.

Bullish Setup.
If price can hold at the VWAP and 50 MA and quickly move up, then we can expect the market to test the 146.000 Which is the first daily Resistance to watch for.

Perhaps then a correction back down to VWAP, or depending on the price action at the time a move to the 146.500

Bearish Setup
If price breaks and closes below VWAP I expect at least a retest of the VWAP from below before continuing down to the 144.900 Level.

After that their is a strong support to break at the 145.100 after that the 50MA at 144.900

So how will you find setups on the Lower Time Frame?

Best is to trade around the lower timeframe at the VWAP, 50MA, Daily Support and Resistance Levels mark these out for yourself, and then we jump on the 1 min.

Use the SMTV Indicator, and make sure to setup the ATR input to 2, it is currently on 3. This will lag signals.

On the 1Min setups.

So for example if we see a bounce from VWAP and following that you see a bullish(green) BOS signal which mean break of structure then you can either wait for a pullback and a break of the same structure level before entering or if it is a strong break, most likely enter bullish with a stop loss under the Green Support Line and either look for the next Daily Support or enter a 1:3 R:R or 1:4.

If you are aiming for the Daily Resistance 1 then I recommend putting your stoploss under the VWAP.

If you are going bearish then wait for a retest of the VWAP from below, and then a red BOS signal. this will indicate a bearish continuation. Set you Stop Loss above the Red Resistance level or VWAP and for a 1:3 R:R if at the VWAP you can go for 1st Daily support at 144.900

18. Aug. 2023

Anmerkung

So the bearish case played out today, we had a strong break of Daily Support 1 and the a move down within 2 pips of Daily support 2, before a strong 1 hour turn around and a bounce of the VWAP from below and a pullback just past the Daily Support 1.


For the Highest Risk to Reward Bullish Setup.
I would look for bullish entries around the Daily Support 2. 145.100 otherwise the 50 MA 144.800 which is another key level, then we can target the VWAP 145.600. So not a bad R:R, of 1:4 if you play the Daily Support 2 Bounce or a 1:7 if you get in on the 50MA bounce.