USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

17. Juni 2023

Past week saw a steady decline from 82.47 to 81.85. As observed in the previous blog the declines are used as opportunity to hedge the Imports. A close below 82.00 favors further lower levels. The currency pair is at a crucial support. It appears that the pair seems to be in no mood to breach 81.70 on a closing basis. In such scenario we may expect a consolidation between 81.95 and 82.70. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. Market is expecting 81.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 81.70.

A few more observations:

• The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
  
• Neither the moves in Dollar Index-DXY nor the equity have direct correlation
  
• As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
  
• The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
  
• This range is continuing to be protected
  
• Unlike in the past, the Imports (mainly the oil) are being hedged as and when there are lower prices in Oil and/or lower prices in the currency pair.
  
• A deeper correction is long overdue.
  
• May shock the exporters with swift down move

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.