Based on the chart and three model calculations -- ARIMA(5,2,1), ARIMA(0,1,0), and Monte Carlo Simulation, using historic returns from last 150 trading days -- I believe this is a good spot to go long on a 345 Put option expiring on Feb 16, which has a 66% of expiring in the money. Based on the models, the stock is trading above its mean Monte Carlo simulation price, it has a very high volatility
(which if you are trading American Puts, will be to your advantage), and is also approaching a high RSI
value. Additionally, the chart shows a heavy resistance at the 345-350 price range. I will also note that in the last three months, rallies in the TSLA
stock price have been shortly followed by almost an equal drop in the price.
From a fundamental side, Trump's Tax plan should not affect TSLA
enough to affect its price, earnings
, or EPS
. Based on the financial performance of the last 3 quarters, I don't expect TSLA
's financial position to improve anytime soon.