Tesla Update
If y'all remember, I was originally counting the raise off the $101 bottom as the primary wave ((5)) of cycle wave I. Due to the price action we carved out from the April 24' low, I changed that to the cycle wave I as already completed. All I have been seeing / able to count from that low are 3-wave moves. This hardly seems like an impulsive pattern to me. Also, MACD says that cycle wave I ended Nov 21'.
With the recent price action, I am forced to reconsider / revisit my long-term analysis. This leaves only an ED as a viable option should it not be corrective. If this is corrective, it is way over extended and border line invalidated. Yes, an abc pattern can extend above the prior impulsive wave high, and no rules dictate by how much. However, at some point you have to call it what it is and look at other possibilities. That is what I am doing now. Should it not be corrective, which I am extremely doubting, the only other viable option following EWT is an ED. Should it be an ED, then that means price will be required to revisit the high $200's for wave (4). What could cause that kind of a fall in value followed by another larger move higher is anyone's guess.
There technically is one other option. This option cannot be predicted by EWT and there is no way to account for it. That is if some huge news that is unexpected from insiders and retailers' alike drops changing the trajectory of a stock. In this case, for whatever reason I cannot understand, many people thought President Trump was going to lose the election. Before he won, Musk had tied himself very close to the president elect. Did this alter the pattern? We cannot yet know. However, we can boil this stock down to three possible options.
Option #1 - This is a way over extended abc pattern that will be concluding soon. (Least favorite option personally)
Option #2 - This is an ED and we're currently within wave (3). This suggests that price will come down sub $300 to overlap with wave (1) before moving to new ATH's. (My favorite option)
Option #3 - The stock has changed its trajectory / structure due to the election outcome and is now in a very bullish pattern much higher.
Option #1 suggests that price is topping and will head down any time now (again, least favorite option). I have drawn a turquoise box on the chart tracking the Option #2 possibility. Option #3 will follow the turquoise count but not fall as low on the retrace. We will know in the next couple weeks what price has in mind.
With the recent price action, I am forced to reconsider / revisit my long-term analysis. This leaves only an ED as a viable option should it not be corrective. If this is corrective, it is way over extended and border line invalidated. Yes, an abc pattern can extend above the prior impulsive wave high, and no rules dictate by how much. However, at some point you have to call it what it is and look at other possibilities. That is what I am doing now. Should it not be corrective, which I am extremely doubting, the only other viable option following EWT is an ED. Should it be an ED, then that means price will be required to revisit the high $200's for wave (4). What could cause that kind of a fall in value followed by another larger move higher is anyone's guess.
There technically is one other option. This option cannot be predicted by EWT and there is no way to account for it. That is if some huge news that is unexpected from insiders and retailers' alike drops changing the trajectory of a stock. In this case, for whatever reason I cannot understand, many people thought President Trump was going to lose the election. Before he won, Musk had tied himself very close to the president elect. Did this alter the pattern? We cannot yet know. However, we can boil this stock down to three possible options.
Option #1 - This is a way over extended abc pattern that will be concluding soon. (Least favorite option personally)
Option #2 - This is an ED and we're currently within wave (3). This suggests that price will come down sub $300 to overlap with wave (1) before moving to new ATH's. (My favorite option)
Option #3 - The stock has changed its trajectory / structure due to the election outcome and is now in a very bullish pattern much higher.
Option #1 suggests that price is topping and will head down any time now (again, least favorite option). I have drawn a turquoise box on the chart tracking the Option #2 possibility. Option #3 will follow the turquoise count but not fall as low on the retrace. We will know in the next couple weeks what price has in mind.
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Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
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