My first attempt at TA for TRX (Tron)

24. Jan. 2018

!!!DISCLAIMER!!! - Bear in mind that I am new to all of this, and this is by no means investment advice. Don't make investments based on my analysis or advice, do your own research and make your own decisions based on what you yourself believe.

Based on my analysis of the trends and patterns shown for TRX a j-curve and breakout is imminent within the next 48 hours. My estimates are a new ATH ~4200 Satoshi before a retracement back towards ~1500-2000 Satoshi if the previous pattern is to completely repeat itself. (~580% increase from the start of the J curve to the end)

Tron has been moving sideways for the past few days and have broken out of the downtrend channel formed by the previous ATH and the trend reversal that occured during the January-crash. While the market volatility have clearly been a catalyst for quicker corrections and trend reversals as the coin has reached the strong supports quicker the pattern is eerily similar to the pattern show in the correction after the PREVIOUS ATH in December.

Comparing these two patterns and the points where they broke out of their downtrend channel the consolidation period is now over, and the coin is preparing for another pump. Judging by where the long-term uptrend supportline crosses the downtrend channel resistance from the previous ATH, and where this same incident occured in the current period we are less then 48 hours away from the first attempt at breaking the resistance line that was tested during the breakout. Let it be noted that the breakout from the channel resitance also happened in the exact same way in the previous period. (a short upward thrust out of the resistance and then sideways movement for a few days)
If we expect the pattern to keep repeating itself we will see the first attempt at breaking the new resistance line get rejected, and bounce at our current support line before breaking the resistance and moving into a parabolic uptrend within the next few days.

We could possibly see the new ATH spike up and peak as soon as sometime around 29th-31st of January before slowly retracing. Assuming there will be no new major market corrections in the coming months the next consolidation period will presumably be much longer as there will be no catalysts for the TRX to quickly reach its new support level.

Any thoughts, comments? Did I do this right or make any major blunders?

If you found this helpful in any way, and want to support me:
TRX Wallet : 0x40d48ad6e5d4ab416dbfd586912aa1112a317874
BTC Wallet : 1PvN7WcAZs2uZJigdVRm73QM8uok9AkiMC
ETH Wallet : 0x40d48ad6e5d4ab416dbfd586912aa1112a317874

Sincerely,
- Oz

24. Jan. 2018

Anmerkung

Sorry for the random links occuring for 'ATH' and 'volatility' and such, and the snapshot on the top - I haven't quite figured out the publishing tool yet and it added those as I published, tips on how to avoid that are much appreciated ;)

24. Jan. 2018

Anmerkung

There is currently a similar formation forming to what happened shortly before the downtrend reversal during the crash with a sharp dip followed by an immediate spike. I wouldn't be surprised to see this spike peaking at 640-650 satoshi before settling around 610 satoshi for a day or two.

It could also be that it already reached its peak with 630 satoshi in which case I expect it to settle around 600-605 satoshi for the next day or two.

This could be another indicator that the upwards price movement is close at hand

24. Jan. 2018

Anmerkung

First target of 650 satoshi has been reached, but the spike keeps moving upwards so we might see it settling even higher, possibly in the 620-630 range

24. Jan. 2018

Anmerkung

From the looks of it on the 5 minute chart the above mentioned pattern is now starting to settle nicely inbetween 620-635 (touching 636 occasionally and currently in the higher end of the spectrum)

I now expect TRX to mostly stay in this range for the next ~15-20 hours, but perhaps with the occasional spike and a slight buildup towards 640-650. Somewhere inbetween 20-40 hours from now I think an uptrend will begin to visualize in the chart, as the momentum slowly builds for the J curve. I think this is a good time to buy in if you haven't already as I don't really see it dropping MUCH lower before the next ATH...

PS: The above is a 30 minute chart, but I try to look at all the charts to catch moves thats happening on all scales.

25. Jan. 2018

Anmerkung

Trend is currently moving right on target and have entered the zone where I'm expecting the next test of the 713 resistance to occur.

25. Jan. 2018

Anmerkung

Sidenote: The Bollinger Band Width for TRX on the 15 minute and 30 minute charts, as well as 1 day, 4 hour and 1 hour charts are now squeezed tighter then they have been in months, volume and Bollinger Bands have also been retracting very slow and steady with less volatility then have been seen pretty much since it came out of ICO.

Whatever is about to happen with TRX is set up to have the potential to be really explosive - it's just a waiting game now!

25. Jan. 2018

Anmerkung

Its a long shot, but some of my indicators suggests the tide might be turning within the next few hours.

I'm probably wrong though and it'll keep moving sideways...