SPY Critical Resistance Test Before CPI

14. Aug.

SPY has bounced all the way back up to where the selling really started to accelerate before the big gap down last Monday. Not only do we have horizontal resistance here back from some lows in June, but we also have a trendline retest. This trendline formed over a few weeks and held several times as support before we gapped down below and continued lower.

We have several trendlines and resistance levels like this you can see across the entire market. NQ is also retesting a major trend break and VX is sitting at support. I consider this to be a bearish setup, but I think it'll break hard either way. Not sure if we'll get a big reaction to CPI tomorrow after today's rally on PPI or not. There's many potential catalysts to watch out for including fed rate cuts, extended global conflict and war, a weakening consumer leading to more bankruptcies and credit defaults which will put even more pressure on banks when the time comes.

We can speculate about these things all day, but at the end of the day it is all about the charts and price action. I like to speculate, but trading based off of speculation is not typically a winning strategy. I'll focus on the charts from here and react accordingly. Nothing can surprise me at this point, should be an interesting finish to the week.