Warning! 1950 - 1980 first key level in danger. Call the PPT!
I marked all recent warning signals by ellipses on both charts. Yesterday we had no lower low, but we have it today.
Maybe it will spike one more time, as 1980 +/- area is really an ultimate key to protect and market is a bit oversold short term. Maybe Bulls will have one more fiesta, but the whole structure is looking more and more heavy and unhealthy!
For me the question is not if we have to short SP500, rather how much we need to sell and keep (volatility adjusted) and when to add more? So basically how to build to position, without being burnt, shaken out or even just scared by bear market rallies, which will occur from time to time on the way down. The trick is: keep only as much short position, which you can easily sleep with... even if e.g. it spikes 4 % from here
If bear market starts to roll on, based on monthly Kumo (not shown here but you can check in my previous posts) the possible target can be as low as 1600!
One more thing, before someone asks me, what if it doesn't break, etc. Well, yes, miracles can happen, so I can not exclude either that finally by some strange reason it rallies to 2200! But the thing is, it has a very very low chance, given that almost all other major regional (or country) indexes are turning or have been bearish already on the higher time frames. Guys, as I said a couple of times. Every trend has to end once and pull back. Look at Apple shares! It was bullish for a really long time... "It must have been love, but it's over now!"
There is no problem with trend breaks and reversals. Just admit it in time and play according to price action. The problem actully here in SPX is that this bull market was highly manipulative, that's why it has last for so long! Therefor we don't know how big the damage will be on the break, also we do not know how even bigger manipulation Central Banks will try to force when the damage happens.
Good luck...especially for perma-Bulls, they need it more now ;-)
Maybe it will spike one more time, as 1980 +/- area is really an ultimate key to protect and market is a bit oversold short term. Maybe Bulls will have one more fiesta, but the whole structure is looking more and more heavy and unhealthy!
For me the question is not if we have to short SP500, rather how much we need to sell and keep (volatility adjusted) and when to add more? So basically how to build to position, without being burnt, shaken out or even just scared by bear market rallies, which will occur from time to time on the way down. The trick is: keep only as much short position, which you can easily sleep with... even if e.g. it spikes 4 % from here
If bear market starts to roll on, based on monthly Kumo (not shown here but you can check in my previous posts) the possible target can be as low as 1600!
One more thing, before someone asks me, what if it doesn't break, etc. Well, yes, miracles can happen, so I can not exclude either that finally by some strange reason it rallies to 2200! But the thing is, it has a very very low chance, given that almost all other major regional (or country) indexes are turning or have been bearish already on the higher time frames. Guys, as I said a couple of times. Every trend has to end once and pull back. Look at Apple shares! It was bullish for a really long time... "It must have been love, but it's over now!"
There is no problem with trend breaks and reversals. Just admit it in time and play according to price action. The problem actully here in SPX is that this bull market was highly manipulative, that's why it has last for so long! Therefor we don't know how big the damage will be on the break, also we do not know how even bigger manipulation Central Banks will try to force when the damage happens.
Good luck...especially for perma-Bulls, they need it more now ;-)
