Serious multi time frame deterioration - Is Bear market coming?
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen! Dear perma Bulls and Zerohedge fan unpatient Bears! I have some news: A bear market to hit in 2016 has a quickly increasing chance!
Monthly:
Major long term market tops take long time to build. And even when market gets first hits, it tries to recover too early. Why? Simply because of human nature, and feer/greed psichology! Look at the first ellipse on the Monthly chart: there is the most important message -> Whenever the monthly Price closes back below Monthly Kijun Sen (26 months average) the BULL MARKET IS OVER! But also as you see it doesn't mean an immediate total collapse. First market goes into a deep correction from the major long term makret top, which had taken 5-8 months to form before! Then feer and greed buys the market again, that lasted for a few months in 2008. But again, without Price breaking back above Monthly Kijun Sen, Bulls can not win!
What else do we see on monthly now as most important message?
- Heikin-Ashi has very serious warning signal for a top and a possible downturn from recent levels! Since the august break and lows, Price retested the previous long term bullish trendline. But this month it looks like the candle can become one with an inside body (compared to previous candle) and with a lower high! We still have time until year end, but as you will see on the lower time frames, this deterioration to stay has high probability!. Naturally same time haDelta/SMA3 also gives a warning signal for loss in previous sharp bullish momentum!
- Kijun Sen is cathcing up quickly. As I Showed u in my last monthly chart, every month one candle 26 months ago falls out. IMPORTANT NOTE! For some reason Tradingview's system I think doesn't calculate properly the current monthly Kijun Sen. It should be higher at 1933 now! (in my other systems it is appr. there). Anyway, within the next 2-3 months it will automatically move up to minimum 1950 and 1966 regardless any price actions! (so either price stays here, drops or increases). This means the bearish trigger line is coming closer!
Weekly:
- Neutral Ichimoku setup.
- Neutral Heikin-Ashi, with increasing bearish bias shown by haDelta!
- Look how close the last supports are!!! Kumo and Kijun at 1984. And horizontal around 1922, which is already below of current Monthly Kijun Sen (1933)!!!
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral, with increasing bearish bias as Price attacks Kijun from up.
- Heikin-Ashi is bearish, EWO slightly below zero!
- Price may dip into the Kumo. In this case Bulls have to make all their best to keep it above 1990 at least for this year! Or if they really believe in their power, they will defend it even above 2035 and will try to keep it float in 2030-2090 range.
Grand total:
The picture is not yet that bad, but not so rosy either! We have serious long term warning signals! Long SPX positions has very limited upside from here compared to the mounting risks goiing into 2016!
Keep your eyes open, and pin these charts to your desktop!!!
Monthly:
Major long term market tops take long time to build. And even when market gets first hits, it tries to recover too early. Why? Simply because of human nature, and feer/greed psichology! Look at the first ellipse on the Monthly chart: there is the most important message -> Whenever the monthly Price closes back below Monthly Kijun Sen (26 months average) the BULL MARKET IS OVER! But also as you see it doesn't mean an immediate total collapse. First market goes into a deep correction from the major long term makret top, which had taken 5-8 months to form before! Then feer and greed buys the market again, that lasted for a few months in 2008. But again, without Price breaking back above Monthly Kijun Sen, Bulls can not win!
What else do we see on monthly now as most important message?
- Heikin-Ashi has very serious warning signal for a top and a possible downturn from recent levels! Since the august break and lows, Price retested the previous long term bullish trendline. But this month it looks like the candle can become one with an inside body (compared to previous candle) and with a lower high! We still have time until year end, but as you will see on the lower time frames, this deterioration to stay has high probability!. Naturally same time haDelta/SMA3 also gives a warning signal for loss in previous sharp bullish momentum!
- Kijun Sen is cathcing up quickly. As I Showed u in my last monthly chart, every month one candle 26 months ago falls out. IMPORTANT NOTE! For some reason Tradingview's system I think doesn't calculate properly the current monthly Kijun Sen. It should be higher at 1933 now! (in my other systems it is appr. there). Anyway, within the next 2-3 months it will automatically move up to minimum 1950 and 1966 regardless any price actions! (so either price stays here, drops or increases). This means the bearish trigger line is coming closer!
Weekly:
- Neutral Ichimoku setup.
- Neutral Heikin-Ashi, with increasing bearish bias shown by haDelta!
- Look how close the last supports are!!! Kumo and Kijun at 1984. And horizontal around 1922, which is already below of current Monthly Kijun Sen (1933)!!!
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral, with increasing bearish bias as Price attacks Kijun from up.
- Heikin-Ashi is bearish, EWO slightly below zero!
- Price may dip into the Kumo. In this case Bulls have to make all their best to keep it above 1990 at least for this year! Or if they really believe in their power, they will defend it even above 2035 and will try to keep it float in 2030-2090 range.
Grand total:
The picture is not yet that bad, but not so rosy either! We have serious long term warning signals! Long SPX positions has very limited upside from here compared to the mounting risks goiing into 2016!
Keep your eyes open, and pin these charts to your desktop!!!
