The crowd is impressed by the vertical strength.
But below the surface, the balance of power is shifting:
- Since 2013, the corrections were shallow and no more than 15days and the rally were longer and were making significant new highs.
- Since August14, the rallies although vertical, are making marginal new highs and the correction in between now took 1 full month...
- If the shift of energy from positive to negative is really taking place below the surface:
1) the current rally (super strong by all mean) may stop only after 23days (instead of 1month or more before) and the leg down could take 1 month again and be dramatic this time.
Cliff 1940.
For this scenario to take place: sp500 needs to be below 2000 soon and after an intermediate rebound it could launch 9/13 days down vertical with exponential reaching: 1680
I am repeating myself on all these charts. Super dangerous to be long.
Risk reward:
7% up slowly (and slow is not regime right now)
or 15% down on the first leg and probably more into 2015 to reach 23% down.
But below the surface, the balance of power is shifting:
- Since 2013, the corrections were shallow and no more than 15days and the rally were longer and were making significant new highs.
- Since August14, the rallies although vertical, are making marginal new highs and the correction in between now took 1 full month...
- If the shift of energy from positive to negative is really taking place below the surface:
1) the current rally (super strong by all mean) may stop only after 23days (instead of 1month or more before) and the leg down could take 1 month again and be dramatic this time.
Cliff 1940.
For this scenario to take place: sp500 needs to be below 2000 soon and after an intermediate rebound it could launch 9/13 days down vertical with exponential reaching: 1680
I am repeating myself on all these charts. Super dangerous to be long.
Risk reward:
7% up slowly (and slow is not regime right now)
or 15% down on the first leg and probably more into 2015 to reach 23% down.