markrivest
Short

SPX Long Term Elliott Wave Count

SP:SPX   Der S&P 500 Index
423 13 18
This is an update to the long term SPX             wave count I posted three months ago.
Within a standard Elliott five wave pattern there is usually a Fibonacci relationship between waves "one" and "five" in price and or time.

There is no price Fibonacci relationship between SPX             wave (1) and wave (5)
There is an amazing time relationship in that as of 12/13/16 wave (5) is exactly the same time for wave (1). Incredible! Also 12/13/16 was a Full moon .

This is powerful evidence that an important SPX             top may have been made on 12/13/16.

Mark
Nice chart, and most people are trying to count this advance as a five. However I've got a problem with the five as there's no fib relationship between any of the upwards waves. That's possible of course. My own opinion is that the US markets are starting a very large and long rising wedge that will last until about the year 2032, and this is a three wave advance that makes just the first upwards wave of the wedge. Very long bull markets often end with a wedge, and I think that's likely this time. In other words we'll get a 5th wave wedge to end the pattern that started in the year 1906. So as an alternative you might try to look at this as a three. You see after your black (1) the sequence of three rising highs and lows? I can't count those as fives - they look like threes, and *might* be a gently rising B wave triangle. That would give wave 'A' at your black (1) followed by a B wave rising triangle. Interestingly if you apply 1.618*A to the low at 1340 you get a target around 2500 which is pretty near the target of the inverted head and shoulders after black (3). This of course is only an alternative view, but is worth considering. Hope you don't mind me mentioning it.

One other option for the rising threes is that the upwards pattern after blue (2) is a leading diagonal wave 1 with wave 2 the low at 1340. A 1.618 multiple of that comes pretty close to your wave (3).
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kunsan kunsan
Sorry, I should have added that the low at 1810 also doesn't have any fib relationship to upside targets. It's possible that the three wave first part of a long term wedge is larger, and that the action between your (3) and (4) isn't a 4th wave at all but a B wave. So we get an ABC up to 2100 for wave 'A' (or W etc if you prefer) followed by a 'B' back to 1810, and now in a wave 'C' upwards to 2800 (C being 0.618 of A). Everyone is counting the move upwards from 1810 as a diagonal, but it *could be* nested 1's and 2's, so currently in wave 3 of 3 (and the move upwards from the election does indeed have all the hallmarks of a third wave). Merry Christmas to you and your family.
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Hi @kunsan,

The SPX move up from 1810 can be counted as a series of 1's and 2's. I'm using this as my bullish alternate count. The reason this is not my primary count other than the price and time ratios I noted in my prior response.
are. 1) Momentum - three of the nine SPX sector ETF's are lagging badly since the 11/3/16 bottom. If a 3rd of a 3rd wave up was underway all nine SPX sectors should be at or near 2016 highs.
2) Sentiment - The Market Vane Bullish Consensus reading the week the SPX hit its 2016 high was 66% This is the highest reading since mid May 2015 which was 65%. May 20, 2015 the SPX hit its 2015 high at 2134.

All four market dimensions; Price, Time, Momentum, and Sentiment are indicating a stock market top is either in place or very near.

Mark
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Hi @kunsan,

Thanks very much for your comments and observations. I've posted a detailed Elliott wave count for the SPX 2011 to 2012 which helps explain my wave count 2009 to 2016.
As for Intermediate wave (5) not having relationships with any of the upwards waves, you are correct it is possible. Frequently there can be one sub wave in a five wave structure that has no Fibonacci relationships to the other waves.
Relationships between the waves can be in price and time. There is an exact equal time ratio between Intermediate waves (1) and (5).

There's no price relationship between Intermediate wave (5) and the other Intermediate degree waves. There is however a fascinating price relationship between Primary wave "1" boxed with Primary wave "3" boxed.

Primary wave "1" from 2009 to 2010 rallied 82.9%. Primary wave "3" from 2010 to 2016 has rallied 125.2%. 82.9/125.2 = .662 a near perfect Fibonacci ratio of 2/3! This is amazingly accuracy and considering the size of the Primary waves in both price and time is in itself very powerful evidence of a very important SPX top forming. If the SPX is going into Primary wave "4" down we can expect a decline in the next few months of 15 to 20%. I will have more information about this in a future post.

Mark
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kunsan markrivest
@markrivest, thanks for all your detailed explanations, and of course I accept what you say. Quite possibly we are near an important top. However I've spent a lot of time this weekend analysing the various waveforms and looking at the Dow and DXY for possible relationships. My conclusion is now firm that we are in a very large ABC upwards move where the correction back down to 1810 was a 'B' wave and we are now in a five upwards for wave 'C'. Everybody is looking at this as a 5th wave, watching for the wedge and a possible top. I think it's a 'B' and the current wave 'C' has a target of 2800 being 0.618 of 'A'.

One of the reasons is the DXY pattern. Again everyone seems to be looking for a 4,5, but I think the consolidation between 90-100 was a 'B' in a larger ABC that has a target of 120. I think this upper target will be reached at the same time as SPX 2800 in June 2018. The massive flow of money out of the JPY and EUR into the Dollar has to parked somewhere, and I think that money will drive the SPX to the 2800 target.

For this to be correct, SPX needs to move quite quickly to the next target at 2313/7, then after a pause move upwards again to the 2400 in February. If these targets are reached, then I think we'll get 2500 in June 2017 (top of wave 3 of C), a 4th wave in the second half of 2017 followed by a 'surprise' 400 point move upwards in 2018 to complete the five waves. I've confirmed these dates and targets using Bradley dates and Fib ratios.

If all of these turns out to be correct, SPX 2800 will be the top of wave 'A' of a very large long term wedge. Wave 'B' starting in June 2018 will be a wonderful shorting opportunity and a chance to make a significant amount of money.

So : yes, I'm watching for a top here, and looking at the rising wedge, but if we see a quick move to my first target at 2313/7 then I'll be even more convinced that my roadmap described above is the most likely outcome.
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Hi @kunsan,

We may find out very quickly if the SPX will resume its upward climb or begin to fall. As I've noted in other posts there is a very important Fibonacci resistance point at SPX 2285.92 if the SPX moves above that level it could be very bullish and I will change my opinion. Also the beginning of a new year can sometimes trigger dynamic moves, up and down in many markets not just stocks. There are four dimensions in every market that must be studied;
Price, Time, Sentiment and Momentum. Besides the bearish SPX price and time relationships noted in my last post, there is considerable bearish evidence from sentiment and dimension. We need to look at the weight of the evidence and not fixated on price patterns. The burden of proof is on the bulls. Watch SPX 2285.92 and the first day of trading in 2017.

Mark
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Interesting chart. Thanks for posting. I for one am always interested in learning any new approach (Moon cycles) for me to have a look at. I can then decide for myself if it something that's valid or useful for me.
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bcs of one guy asking to look at obx i accidentally had a look on that index and there is also possibility of leading diagonal just completed

sure, completely other story but global equities timing is synchronous...

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markrivest look4edge
Hi @look4edge,

Thanks for sharing this information.

Mark
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hi, is there possibility that your black 1, 2 is actually b, c of blue 2 bcs black 1 seems to be not impulsive but corrective nature (or as i favour b of B of ABC zigzag) and thus now final 5 terminating? thx

"full moon" ... really? litlle disapponited to find it in your analysis :(

and 2009 as IV? can u show all count, pls?
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