SOLUSDT (4h) 07:00 close I built base scenario

Snapshot of the last 4h candle (and what it means)
• Price: ~210.56 — current base reference.
• VWAP (entire period): ~201.04; z(Price−VWAP)[100] ≈ −2.25 — price above VWAP by ~9.5$, but "premium to VWAP" is lower than usual for the last 100 bars → space for medium return to the averages upwards without overheating.
• aVWAP (anchors): start 201.04, 60d 201.76, from swing low 223.35, from swing high 220.98 — we are below the swing anchors (locally the seller dominates) and above the global ones (start/60d).
* Donchian 20/55:
-20: High 241.70 / Mid 223.09 / Low 204.49 — trading between Mid and Low → frequent rotation to the Mid.
— 55: High 253.40 / Mid 228.94 / Low 204.49 — a more "distant" average target of 228.9.
• Volume Profile (~60d): POC ~203.21, VAL ~168.24, VAH ~239.71 — higher than POC, but still in the value price zone; POC often acts as a magnet/support.
• RSI(14): ~26.9 — oversold → increased risk of a rebound.
* MFI(14): ~17.9 — cash flow is oversold, similar to RSI but with volume consideration.
• CMF(20): ~−0.13 — total capital outflow, confirms seller pressure.
• MACD(12/26/9): line −6.93 below signal −5.75, hist. −1.18 — bearish momentum is active, but histogram is shrinking (weakening).
• ADX/DMI(14): ADX ~48.6; +DI ~4.7 / −DI ~38.5 — strong downward trend (−DI≫+DI).
* ATR(14): ~5.40$ — characteristic 4h range; useful for buffers.
• Keltner: Upper 232.25 / Mid 221.96 / Lower 211.66 — standing next to KC-Lower → typical rebound zone to Mid.
• Bollinger(20,2): Upper 245.91 / Mid 224.32 / Lower 202.73 — between BB-Lower and BB-Mid; mean-reversion up is a priority.
• BB-Squeeze: OFF — volatility is not compressed; the trend has already been established.
• z(Price−VWAP)[100] ≈ −2.25 — the "premium" to VWAP is below the norm → no overheating, and there is room for подтягивания к средним.
• OBV z-scores: z50 −1.85 / z100 −1.39 / z200 −0.56, OBV ROC(10) ≈ −0.78 — sales dominated, distribution; no fresh influx of buyers yet.
• Open Interest: ~7.95M, z(168) ≈ −0.11, ROC(5/10) ≈ +0.05 / +0.06 — moderate position set (non-aggressive), closer to neutral.

Latest divergences (auto-detector)
• RSI: bearish 13 Sep 03:00 → 14 Sep 03:00, bullish 17 Sep 03:00 → 17 Sep 15:00
• MACD: bullish 8 Sep 23:00 → 9 Sep 15:00, bearish 13 Sep 03:00 → 14 Sep 03:00
• OBV: bullish 30 Aug 15:00 → 1 Sep 03:00, bearish 13 Sep 03:00 → 14 Sep 03:00
• MFI: bearish 18 Sep 03:00 → 18 Sep 19:00, bearish 20 Sep 15:00 → 21 Sep 03:00

Reading divergences: fresh bullish signals are limited; some of the latest ones are bearish (especially on MFI/OBV), which restricts the scale of the rebound, but the oversold RSI/MFI still gives Edge to rotate to the averages.

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What does this mean now
1. Mode: strong downtrend, but the price is pulled towards the lower shells (KC-Lower ~211.7 / BB-Lower ~202.7), the RSI/MFI is oversold, and the "premium to VWAP" is below normal → the base risk scenario is a rotation to the averages (221.9–224.3).
2. Profile: we are above POC ~203.2, inside the value-area (VAH ~239.7 / VAL ~168.2) → a POC retest is possible, but more often inside VA the market tends to average.
3. Derivatives: OI ≈ neutral/slightly ↑, OBV weak — a volume/capital inflow is needed for sustainable growth; otherwise, the rebound risks being “technical”.

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Key levels

Resistances: 221.96 (KC-Mid) → 223.09 (Donch-20 Mid) → 224.32 (BB-Mid) → 228.94 (Donch-55 Mid) → 232.25 (KC-Upper) → 239.71 (VAH) → 241.70 (Donch-20 High) → 253.40 (Donch-55 High).
Supports: 211.66 (KC-Lower) → 204.49 (Donch-Low 20/55) → 202.73 (BB-Lower) → 203.21 (POC / support) → 201.04 (VWAP) → deeper — liquidity pockets from the profile (see JSON).

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Scenarios and triggers (not financial advice)

A) Basic — rotation up to the middle / 222–224
• Trigger: 4h-close > 214.4 (≈ KC-Lower + 0.5×ATR) when RSI > 30, MFI > 25, hist. MACD↑, CMF → 0.
• Targets: 221.9–224.3 (KC/BB-Mid, Donch-20 Mid) → 228.9 → 232.3.
* Invalidator: return < 211.7 (KC-Lower) or sharp puncture < 209 (≈ KC-Lower − 0.5×ATR).
B) Continuation of the downward trend
• Trigger: 4h-close < 204.5 (Donch-Low) together with: ADX ≥ 40, OBV z50 ≤ −2, OI ROC+ on a red candle.
• Targets: 202.7 (BB-Lower) → ≈201.0 (VWAP) → with inertia — passes on LVN from the profile.
• Invalidator: return over 211.7 and hold.

C) Short-squeeze
• Trigger: impulse breakout and hold > 228.9 (Donch-55 Mid) or > 232.3 (KC-Upper) with OI falling on a green candle and OBV growing.
• Targets: 239.7 (VAH) → 241.7 → 253.4.
• Invalidator: fake breakout with return < 224.

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Tactics (example of logic)
• Impulse long: after confirmation > 214.4. Partial fixation at 221.9–224.3, then trail to 228.9 → 232.3; stop under 211.7 or ~0.8–1.2×ATR (4.3–6.5$) from the entry.
• Reversal long (conservative): zones 211.7 (KC-Lower) and 203–205 (POC/Donch-Low) only when demand reacts (RSI/MFI up, CMF→0/+) — targets 223 → 229.
• Contra-trend short: carefully on rejection 228.9–232.3 (RSI<50, hist. MACD↓, OI ROC+) — targets 224 → 222 → 215; stop at 232.5–233.

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In short: what to expect

The base scenario is a technical rebound to 222–224.
• We will fix ourselves above 224 → 229 → 232, and a corridor will open to 239–242.
• We will lose 211.7 and fix ourselves < 204.5 with OI↑, and we will continue down to 202.7 → 201.0 and below through thin zones.