SHREECEM : Re-entry intiated

7. März

SHREECEM has exhibited robust performance in the third quarter of FY24, bolstered by favorable market conditions despite ongoing fluctuations.

Shareholding Pattern:

• Promoters maintain a significant stake of 62.55% as of December 2023.
  
• Institutional investors, including FIIs, DIIs, and Mutual Funds, collectively hold approximately 24.86% of shares, with no clear trend in their holdings.
  
• Retail investors hold 12.59% of shares, with strong hands dominating over retail holdings.
  

Financial Insights:

• Despite mixed sentiments in financials, SHREECEM's third-quarter performance remains attractive.
  
• Declining cement prices since November, albeit an improvement of 3% compared to the same period last year.
  
• Modest demand in January due to severe cold, with anticipated rapid improvement in February and March, historically strong quarters for demand.
  
• Favorable industry-oriented budget supports optimistic demand growth outlook.
  
• Declining fuel prices, coupled with secured fuel reserves till March, have positively impacted results.
  
• Strong volume growth of 133% in the first 9 months of FY24, with an expected 11% growth for the full year, indicating potential demand weakness in Q4.
  

Regional Performance:

• Southern region experiences the most significant impact on volume growth, while northern and eastern regions, including central India, exhibit resilience.
  
• Consistent demand growth across regions in the last quarter is expected to persist, with no major regional disparities anticipated.
  

Despite market fluctuations, SH Cement demonstrates resilience and potential for growth, driven by strong operational performance, favorable budgetary policies, and consistent demand trends across regions. Investors may find SHCEM an attractive proposition amidst current market dynamics.

Taking into account the potential upside and downside risks, a position has been initiated for approximately 1.25% of the net capital, anticipating a potential move of about 20% to the nearest inflection levels. However, it's acknowledged that there exists a downside risk of approximately 18% to the start of the higher timeframe ascending channel. I'll consider adding on to the position, if in case, the price falls down to those levels.

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Other posts related to this particular position and scrip, if any, will be attached underneath. Do check those out too.

Disclaimer: The analysis shared here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in all markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It's essential to conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this analysis are solely mine. It's important to note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst, so the analysis provided does not constitute formal investment advice under SEBI regulations.