LONG SUGAR @ 10.48

Technical Analysis:
- Double Bottom at 10.45 from August 2015
- Oversold on daily/weekly timeframes
- Retest of 5monthSMA likely @ 11.50



Fundamental Analysis:
- Look for Brazil Real bounce against USD - this will lead to less selling for $ and more domestic demand in Brazil
- Higher lows since 1985 reflecting growing demand
- Higher energy means more domestic demand in Brazil
- El Nino Weather Pattern could damper production in Brazil and India

Trade ist aktiv:

UPDATE: $USD/BRL #Brazil #Real potential double bottom here @ $4.05-$4.15. BCB may intervene with currency swaps like in 2015.. A bounce in the Real will relieve Brazil selling #Sugar for $USD. Great long term commodity exposure risk reward going long Sugar or adding to position here $10.17:
- $10.00 Sugar Futures $SB_F strong price support & potential long term uptrend still in play conveying long-term demand
- 2019 decrease in Brazil production as farmers switch to soybeans at record prices due to newfound Chinese demand
- Higher energy prices means more domestic demand in Brazil for ethanol
- El Nino Weather Pattern could damper production in Brazil, India, and Thailand
- Oversold on daily/weekly timeframes
- Monthly RSI uptrend from 1998

Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht:

Nailed it! Brazil Real and Sugar rallies from lows. Daily RSI now getting very overbought and CANE approaching 200daySMA. Taking profit here for +17%