NVDA: Week of April

31. März

Happy Easter for those who celebrate and happy spring (though that was a while ago, but still snow on and off here in Canada :( )

NVDA has been really tired lately. The setup for Monday is the infamous gap and crap.
From there we just need to see it hold the threshold and this wedge line its been straddling for weeks now and we can expect a grindy chop up.
Else if it breaaks down from this wedge, it will still go up. Its broken down so many times only to get bought back up.

That said, the weekly low targets are a real possibility with some large TF HA structures that support the move to these levels. Its just really hard to short when the S&P and NAZZZY Poo are just constantly breaking ATHs. They're essentially strong-arming NVDA (and many other stocks) and preventing it from actually tanking (you can tell NVDA is tired. The buying is not like it used to be). So we'll see.

Otherwise, those my thoughts. For me, looking at shorts into Monday and longs the remainder of the week if the wedge is respected!

Daily perspective of the wedge:


Safe trades!

1. Apr.

Anmerkung

Did my setup premarket which is annoying.
But we opened on the support so its a long now.
Targetting 923 initially.

2. Apr.

Anmerkung

Pretty nasty sell, which was actually a good thing because the probs on the day for NVDA were very bearish.
I did not go too heavy long off open just because of that reason, but did catch some of the short move.

Going into tomorrow, they're pretty bullish, the concern is that SPY is kind of bearish. Now they can move independently, but I think the bigger picture is that we remain with very challenging PA to navigate intra-day.

Ideal setup for NVDA would be a gap down. A gap down will make the bullish intra-day probability tomorrow make sense and I would have no issue longing off open.

However, if we gap up, it will be a bit of a problem as the setup will not be as clean.

Let's see how it plays out tomorrow and uh, yeah go from there.

Thanks for following along!
Safe trades :)!

2. Apr.

Anmerkung

"they're pretty bullish" refers to the probability sorry, it wasn't clear.

2. Apr.

Anmerkung

Great day for NVDA, a little touchy start but all around the probs proved to be correct.

Struggling with that 900 level.

Will reassess at EOD.

Safe trades all!

3. Apr.

Anmerkung

Update for tomorrow:
NVDA is pretty 50:50 on the prob assessment.
The chart tells me a retrace to 887 is a real possibility into tomorrow morning.
This is shared with the chart of SPY as well, a little dip into the morning or premarket.

However, for SPY and QQQ we have some pretty solid bullishness showing up, so I do think that NVDA will probably tag along at some point, though its probably not going to be "the most" bullish stock you can play tomorrow.
Tomorrow is a day you may want to grab on the QQQ or SPY itself if you are a day trader, as the pent up momentum seems to be there.

My thoughts! Not advice!
Safe trades!

4. Apr.

Anmerkung

Hey everyone!
Probably final update on this for the week.

NVDA 3 month levels:


Tomorrow the probability is the same as toay, bullish but not incredibly bullish. Will have some good up and down movement.

SPY is pretty bullish (probability wise) so the bias should def be to the bullish side tomorrow, but prepare for some shakeout downside moves.

There is a very big concern that we haven't been able to reclaim the wedge.
There is a massive short setup on heikin ashi for NVDA on the weekly:



This is a huge concern. With NVDA actually staying below the wedge, the short thesis is starting to become the most likely thesis for NVDA in the longer term.
The setup on this would bring us back to the 500 level. Pretty wild to think about!

As of right now, how NVDA is poised to close the week, would be considered a "confirmation candle" of the larger short setup using the HA approach.

Not great, and while I would like to see NVDA sell, I do like i being bullish because its pretty nice to trade to the long side. For NVDA to invalidate and void the weekly short perspective, we would need to see a massive rally back into the high 900s. It just seems like its not possible absent any catalyst.

Let's see how we end the week, but yeah, not a great look for this pigwhale!

4. Apr.

Anmerkung

So yeah, short thesis.

Here are the major weekly technical levels to watch:



I will need to do some deeper analysis on it and upate over the weekend to give math levels to watch, but for now these are some "could be" TA based levels using my heikin ashi method.

9. Apr.

Anmerkung

Just a quick update with the technical levels:



Coming up on gap support soon, major daily support not till the 780s. So we will see if it snags gap support as a bounce zone.

9. Apr.

Anmerkung

So we made it already, and so far its holding as support.

This is only a day trade scalp setup, I don't think this is going to hold for long: