NQ broke below last Wednesday's low today which was also around this week's low before the break. It's coming straight back up into the area now for a retest, this is also right at 20k. I like the odds of a rejection here, but I'd be quick to get out of the way if it breaks above.

Perfect entry would be right around 20,065, but that may not hit. First downside target is demand near 19.7k.
Kommentar
Multiple rejections there right on the line, overshot by less than 20 points, but still sticking around the area. Also nice respect shown to the lower trendline below that it held nicely before rebounding. I think the short is still valid, bulls have not been able to push it above after several tries.

This area is key for NQ/QQQ and ES/SPY. Price remains below $485 on QQQ and $570 on SPY. If we gap up tomorrow and reclaim these levels then it should be clear that puts are not a good idea. This has presented many opportunities to enter in the past 2 days, first target for NQ is still demand around 19.7k. If we see QQQ give up $479 and NQ doesn't hold demand, then we can talk about further downside targets.
Chart PatternsTrend Analysis

Short Thesis:
advancedplays.com/short-thesis.pdf

Disclaimer:
The ideas I post do not always represent my positions and they are intended for educational purposes. Trading is risky, most traders lose money!
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