Macro & Nasdaq
So indicators like RSI and MACD are showing that 
NQ1! is getting to the oversold level (On monthly timeframe RSI we are at -30). So are we ready for a bounce?
The technicals are hinting at "YES" but the macro fundaments... are saying "NO"
The Fed admitted yesterday that it is behind he curve on the inflation. The Swiss Central Bank and EBC showed concern thru their actions. Greg Jensen at Bridgewater said this morning on Bloomberg that equities might have another 20% down before the market settles.
My view is that
1. we should expect a relief rally shortly
2. the bear market will continue until
a. the earnings and multiples come down significantly for the stocks
b. unemployment starts to rise
c. Fed finishes rates hikes and inflation starts to slow down
d. capitulation eventually takes place with Vix reaching >40
The next support lines for Nasdaq 100 might be around
11k, 9.5k, 8k, 6.6k.
NQ1! is getting to the oversold level (On monthly timeframe RSI we are at -30). So are we ready for a bounce? The technicals are hinting at "YES" but the macro fundaments... are saying "NO"
The Fed admitted yesterday that it is behind he curve on the inflation. The Swiss Central Bank and EBC showed concern thru their actions. Greg Jensen at Bridgewater said this morning on Bloomberg that equities might have another 20% down before the market settles.
My view is that
1. we should expect a relief rally shortly
2. the bear market will continue until
a. the earnings and multiples come down significantly for the stocks
b. unemployment starts to rise
c. Fed finishes rates hikes and inflation starts to slow down
d. capitulation eventually takes place with Vix reaching >40
The next support lines for Nasdaq 100 might be around
11k, 9.5k, 8k, 6.6k.
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