Natural Gas - A Maniac Market Maker
Aktualisiert
I find the market makers of the Natural Gas Futures market to be particularly wild savages. The recent dump from $9.5~ to $5.3~ is a fine example of how difficult they make getting long.
They're like a world class bull at the rodeo. You get a lot of points if you can ride one, but their Buck Off % is like 90%+.
Natural Gas is going to $13-$15 and it will very likely do it before 2022 is out The reason is to make it so that North Americans can't afford to heat their homes, especially amid all the other inflation and losing money crushing the middle class.
But you should also know that this recent pump to $8.5 was both too direct and too easy. The shake out is coming, and it's not going to be very pleasant. Look for numbers in the low 6s and high 5s and look for these figures to come painfully fast and with little warning.
"Fundamentals" don't matter. You keep listening to a propaganda network masquerading as a public intelligence organization that calls itself "the news" and wondering why your compass is broken and you can't figure out what is going to happen.
Life is hard and nobody wants you to be rich. Nobody wants you to survive the economic depression that lies ahead. The idea of the establishment is that they will do what they have planned to do, and if you're good enough, you will make it. If you aren't good enough, you will be weeded out.
This is fundamentally evil, and while there remains hope and the evil will ultimately fail in its plans, these are nonetheless the scenarios that will unfold, because all of humanity has abetted this for more than two decades.
So, you have to do your best and stop going with the flow. Stop adding fuel to the flame.
Long NG1 at high 5s and low 6s with a stop under $5.30. The real target is beyond $10, but $10 is coming.
Natural Gas is unrealistically cheap in North America compared to Europe and other parts of the world right now. This won't last. But getting there on a long trade will not be so easy.
They're like a world class bull at the rodeo. You get a lot of points if you can ride one, but their Buck Off % is like 90%+.
Natural Gas is going to $13-$15 and it will very likely do it before 2022 is out The reason is to make it so that North Americans can't afford to heat their homes, especially amid all the other inflation and losing money crushing the middle class.
But you should also know that this recent pump to $8.5 was both too direct and too easy. The shake out is coming, and it's not going to be very pleasant. Look for numbers in the low 6s and high 5s and look for these figures to come painfully fast and with little warning.
"Fundamentals" don't matter. You keep listening to a propaganda network masquerading as a public intelligence organization that calls itself "the news" and wondering why your compass is broken and you can't figure out what is going to happen.
Life is hard and nobody wants you to be rich. Nobody wants you to survive the economic depression that lies ahead. The idea of the establishment is that they will do what they have planned to do, and if you're good enough, you will make it. If you aren't good enough, you will be weeded out.
This is fundamentally evil, and while there remains hope and the evil will ultimately fail in its plans, these are nonetheless the scenarios that will unfold, because all of humanity has abetted this for more than two decades.
So, you have to do your best and stop going with the flow. Stop adding fuel to the flame.
Long NG1 at high 5s and low 6s with a stop under $5.30. The real target is beyond $10, but $10 is coming.
Natural Gas is unrealistically cheap in North America compared to Europe and other parts of the world right now. This won't last. But getting there on a long trade will not be so easy.
Anmerkung
A similar pattern emerged in the 2008 financial crisis before Natural Gas went from $10 to $14 and then crashed with the oil and the rest of the world: But the magnitude of today's moves is three times larger...
Anmerkung
Previously, I felt that NatGas wouldn't take out the previous high without dumping. I found the straight line easy up pattern to be very strange. After the blow off top and with the Federal Reserve about to do unspeakable things to the economy with the interest rate tomorrow, a violent correction does seem imminent.
Anmerkung
It's going down, hard. These guys are total maniacs and could take the low at $5.33.Reference video: youtu.be/3hiqqXo5Lvs
Beware.
Anmerkung
Watching this since I last updated, I actually thought they would take $10. But instead we have two lower highs on this bounce.I feel there is an extremely high chance this turns around, hard, and runs under $5 in the upcoming all-assets market dump.
So be careful buying the dips. It'll close at 5:00 and re-open at 6:00 on a Tuesday and gap down 20% no bounce because that's what these guys like to do.
Anmerkung
Ahhh, well, conveniently, the same factor that halted the bull run at $9 originally somehow reared its head at exactly the same time as NG1 hit $10. naturalgasintel.com/freeport-lng-looks-to-restart-in-november-halting-u-s-natural-gas-price-rally/
June 8/9 price action when Freeport blew up:
Today's price action when Freeport's re-opening was delayed until November:
Next commodities supercycle = mid October+ it seems.
Anmerkung
I have no doubts that NG is about to dump, and dump hard, since it's already in a bearish shift and now following the pattern of the shattered SPX/NASDAQ/DJI indices.The more the fundamentals say "Oh my gosh $13 and $15 and $18 natural gas this winter!" the painful reality is, the more likely it is you see $4 NG contracts in September as the makers blow away all the misplaced top wrongers in advance.
Anmerkung
On the four hour, this still looks like it's heading down to me. Most significant confirmation to me is that it finally made a lower low on against the pivots on the way up to $10, albeit by 0.05Anmerkung
3 New lows in a row on the 4H, and a double bottom @ $7.50...Anmerkung
Russia's Gazprom shutters supply to Germany until a turbine, which has to be fixed by Siemens Montreal, is repaired.english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/09/02/Russia-s-Gazprom-says-gas-pipeline-to-Germany-shut-until-turbine-repaired
This is actually extremely _bearish_ for NG1 price action with the Freeport terminal not being online for exports until November.
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