Nasdaq, massive distribution?

17. Feb. 2023

Nasdaq have been in sideway for the first half of Feb 2023

During this period we have

1) FOMC meeting
2) CPI data
3) PPI Data
4) Unemployment Data
5) Retails

During the FOMC on the 1st of Feb 2023, Powell was confident of a soft landing. He mentioned the word "disinflation" approximately 20 times. He gave the green light for the market to rally by stating he does not think the financial conditions have eased since Dec 2022's FOMC.

The market rejoiced and rallied.... for one day and then proceed to go sideways for the next 2 weeks.




During these 2 weeks, all economic data show signs that there was no sign of disinflation.

MoM CPI was revised higher for Dec 2022 from negative 0.1% to positive 0.1%
Jan 2023's MoM CPI went back up by 0.5%

YoY PPI went was 6% compared to the consensus of 5.4%
MOM PPI went up by 0.7% instead of the consensus 0.4% (HOLY SHIT!!! F ME! IT IS almost doubled the consensus)
Unemployment went down to 3.4%, the lowest since 1969 (low unemployment equates to higher consumer spending equates to higher inflation)
MoM Retail sales went up 3% instead of the consensus 1.8& (HOLY SHIT!!)


If the critical support is broken, we have a long way down.

Much like inflation in 2021, maybe this "disinflation" is also transitory