LTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Breaking Out But To Where?

7. Nov. 2017

LTCUSD update: Consolidation break out attempt at the 60 level. Compared to the other coins, this market takes much longer to make significant progress but is worth mentioning because a minor retrace can offer attractive reward/risk for a swing trade long. Also this breakout can be the beginning of a broader bullish movement.

The 60 level has been the range high resistance for a number of weeks now and has finally been compromised. What makes this break out compelling is the higher low formation at 53.35 and the resistance break at 56. These are bullish formations that imply this breakout has a good chance of following through.

This may also be the beginning of the breakout of a very large degree Wave 2 which this market has been stuck within for weeks. Potential near term targets for this move are 65.22 and the 72 area which are both extensions projected from the recent 49 low.

Using the 53 level as a reference point to define risk, any minor retrace that stays above the 56 break out level offers attractive reward/risk for a swing trade long. The 58.35 level is a minor .382 measured from the 53 higher low offers a potential reference point for entry. Often on breaks outs like this retracements are shallow if this market is truly strong.

My plan is to wait for a minor retrace to somewhere between the 58 and 60 level and look for a small time frame reversal. Using 53 as a reference point for a stop, if I get long at an average price of 58.50 let's say, and my first target is 65, I am risking 5.5 points to take some profit at around 7 points which give me a slightly higher than 1:1 reward risk.

Compared to the immediate potential of the other coins, this market is not as exciting, BUT it has certainly been more stable and if this is a broader range break out, it has the potential to run to the low 70s which makes the trade idea much more worthwhile.

This is also the type of coin that is an attractive long term hold (as long as some other coin doesn't come in and make it obsolete). So if I manage to get some on a small retrace in the high 50s, I do intend to keep some as part of a core position which has no near term target. (Multi year play). I do like the fundamental story behind this coin and I think it has merit for usability in the future (but I will get out immediately if something better comes out. Cannot get stuck on any opinions ESPECIALLY in these markets).

In summary, this market is much quieter and more stable in terms of price action. Often there is not much to say, but today's move could be the initial break out and beginning of a much broader trend that can take price to at least the mid to upper 60s. It is worth mentioning because any shallow retrace will offer reward/risk that is attractive according to my plan. Remember IF it pulls back, there has to be some form of reversal pattern to justify entry on a smaller time frame. If price retraces further and fast and falls back below 56, then that will imply this move is a fake out, and I will reevaluate the entry. In the longer term I think this coin still offers a lot of potential and is certainly one that I want to accumulate if it begins working it's way higher on the big picture. Markets always retrace to some degree, so there is no reason to get overexcited and buy into the top of the breakout. Let the market come to you.

Comments and questions welcome.