🔰 Pair Name : XAU/USD
🔰 Time Frame : 4HOUR
🔰 Scale Type : MID SCALE
🔰 Direction: BUY
In our latest analysis, a notable market imbalance has been identified, characterized by an ongoing oversold condition on the hourly 4 chart. However, it is important to note that this imbalance has not yet been fully rectified.
Our trading strategy has involved selling at each peak in gold, with a target goal set at $1,900.80 this morning. At the market close, we anticipated the breach of the support level at $1,902. The long-term trend remains bearish, thereby exposing potential risks for buyers.
However, it is crucial to emphasize a key observation mentioned in our previous forecast. There exists a significant market imbalance above that is awaiting correction. Despite the prevailing selling pressure on gold, considering its strong weekly downtrend, various technical factors should be taken into account. Currently, gold is situated at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, accompanied by a bullish engulfing candle on the 4-hour chart (bullish pin bar on the daily chart) and a bullish pin bar at today's market close.
From a technical standpoint, the weekly bearish chart indicates a fully bearish medium to long-term trend. However, identifying the precise selling point for gold's ultimate destination around $1883, followed by $1770, remains uncertain.
Given the market's response and the significant oversold conditions, our prediction suggests that gold will likely reach at least the mid-section of the downtrend around the $1937 area, assuming the 1-hour supply zone is breached. This would eventually lead to the complete refill of the 4-hour market imbalance, situated around the $1943 area, and a retest of the 50% Fibonacci level. Subsequently, the Wyckoff Phases would be completed before gold resumes its downward trajectory.
Nevertheless, it is essential to acknowledge that market sentiment can change at any moment. Therefore, we must closely monitor the price of gold before considering the initiation of any positions.