STRONG HTF resistance in motion - a break of 1.14?
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912 and closed firm. This prompted an extension in June to highs at 1.1422, adding 1.2%, despite running into opposition at the lower ledge of nearby supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).
Interestingly, July is currently crossing paths with the aforesaid trendline resistance.
With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval).
It’s typical, in the case of bearish formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Common take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (of legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
A mild bid has been observed since June 19 after reaching 1.1168, which, as you can see, recently gathered traction and retested the aforesaid PRZ, and consequently hauled the RSI value to within touching distance of overbought levels. Wednesday ended considerably off best levels, by way of a shooting star candlestick configuration, considered a bearish signal at peaks.
H4 timeframe:
Supply at 1.1470/1.1447 made an entrance yesterday, an area drawn from early February 2019. The base was clearly of interest to shorts, containing enough fuel to drive things back into the ascending channel between 1.1185/1.1345.
Holding under channel resistance today has demand at 1.1324/1.1345 on the radar as the next point of consideration, with a break here unmasking channel support.
H1 timeframe:
EUR/USD bulls managed to hold the 1.14 perimeter Wednesday, with 1.1450 making a show. Despite earlier enthusiasm, things turned sour heading into US trading and had the market revisit waters just ahead of the aforesaid round number.
Trendline support (1.1255) is also on the shelf today. A whipsaw through 1.14 could be enough to draw this level into the fight.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, neighbouring long-term trendline resistance, the daily PRZ between 1.1462/1.1395 (and daily bearish candlestick pattern) and H4 testing supply from 1.1470/1.1447 puts forward a strong ceiling in this market.
Similar to Wednesday’s analysis, the above is unlikely to see H1 bulls commit off 1.14 today. In fact, a break of the aforesaid level and H1 trendline support would not surprise. This may also serve as a robust bearish signal towards at least 1.1350.
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912 and closed firm. This prompted an extension in June to highs at 1.1422, adding 1.2%, despite running into opposition at the lower ledge of nearby supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).
Interestingly, July is currently crossing paths with the aforesaid trendline resistance.
With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval).
It’s typical, in the case of bearish formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Common take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (of legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
A mild bid has been observed since June 19 after reaching 1.1168, which, as you can see, recently gathered traction and retested the aforesaid PRZ, and consequently hauled the RSI value to within touching distance of overbought levels. Wednesday ended considerably off best levels, by way of a shooting star candlestick configuration, considered a bearish signal at peaks.
H4 timeframe:
Supply at 1.1470/1.1447 made an entrance yesterday, an area drawn from early February 2019. The base was clearly of interest to shorts, containing enough fuel to drive things back into the ascending channel between 1.1185/1.1345.
Holding under channel resistance today has demand at 1.1324/1.1345 on the radar as the next point of consideration, with a break here unmasking channel support.
H1 timeframe:
EUR/USD bulls managed to hold the 1.14 perimeter Wednesday, with 1.1450 making a show. Despite earlier enthusiasm, things turned sour heading into US trading and had the market revisit waters just ahead of the aforesaid round number.
Trendline support (1.1255) is also on the shelf today. A whipsaw through 1.14 could be enough to draw this level into the fight.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, neighbouring long-term trendline resistance, the daily PRZ between 1.1462/1.1395 (and daily bearish candlestick pattern) and H4 testing supply from 1.1470/1.1447 puts forward a strong ceiling in this market.
Similar to Wednesday’s analysis, the above is unlikely to see H1 bulls commit off 1.14 today. In fact, a break of the aforesaid level and H1 trendline support would not surprise. This may also serve as a robust bearish signal towards at least 1.1350.
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