We've seen some nice moves from EUR over the last few days giving support that EUR BULL's are definitely in play. However, looking at the updated count, a retracement is due after an impulse which plays out nicely with a gap due to close.
Count update (Big Picture):
Wave 1: From the bottom, a impulse.
Wave 2: Running Flat
Wave (1) of 3: Latest impulse with the round 1 results of the French election as marked in blue
Wave (2) of (1) of wave 3: A corrective is due after an impulse so expect USD buyers to be in play.
Forecast wave: If the Macron results in the round 1 elections was anything to go by, I expect the results of the 7th May French Elections (should Macron win) play a massive part in pushing this pair right up
Exciting times ahead...
Here's a quick update on the current EU short trading I'm currently in.
1: The ABC Correction I originally posted is tracking nicely and I have wave A and B complete with wave C in progress.
2: Of the wave C, wave 1 and 2 looks complete and wave 3 should start with a forecast wave 3 ext to 1.618% as marked.
Today is key and a short should start today to confirm this move is correct. Let's see how it plays out today. If USD doesn't move down, I will look at closing my trade - 1.09320 should hold so I have my SL at this price point.
Recounting to see as a new high wasn't made so this move we just witnessed was potentially a wave B (flat) of a corrective move.
Looking for a opportunity to short again as the gap is yet to close.
It's been soooooo frustrating over the last few days and it seems as though indecision is in play and this usually happens in a B wave or a triangle; and surprise surprise, a triangle seems to be developing from what I see so a short entry is what I am trying to spot.
As for this week, there are a few interesting events to factor in:
1. NFP on Friday - forecast looks positive for USD so this could help close the gap
2. The Big one - French Elections. Interesting developments as LePen is closing in on Macron so it could be anyone's win. if Macron win, EUR rallies, if LePen win's EUR Falls.
Markets should start heating up over the next few days...
Looks like the Flat count is in play and not the triangle alternate - Please see updated count below.
Wave A - ZZ Complete
Wave B - Flat Complete
Wave C - Wave 1 and 2 of 3 is complete with sub wave 3 in progress (marked in red impulsive wave)
Target wave C - This still remains the same with .50% or .618% as marked