Euro / US-DollarLong
Fibonacci support between 1.1196/1.1247 in sight...
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of February witnessed EUR/USD revisit the upper limit of demand at 1.0488/1.0912 – a noteworthy area given the momentum derived from its base – and pencil in an appealing (bullish) hammer candlestick pattern.
Upside this month, currently trades +2.24%, manoeuvred the pair into demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352, though, as of current price, left long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) unchallenged. Price is seen retreating from the said area, opening up the possibility of a revisit to demand mentioned above at 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend remains in motion and has remained lower since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered outlook from previous analysis -
Snapping a three-day winning streak, daily price retreated from supply at 1.1540/1.1486 in recent trade, down more than 130 points. Supply-turned demand at 1.1159/1.1233 resides close by, intersecting closely with a familiar trend line support (1.0879), active since October 2019. A breach of the noted demand welcomes the 200-day SMA, currently circulating around the 1.11 neighbourhood.
What’s also notable from a technical perspective is the RSI indicator exiting overbought levels, fading peaks at 82.00, values not seen since March 2008.
H4 timeframe:
Supply-turned demand at 1.1294/1.1271 contained downside, guiding EUR/USD to a session high at 1.1366, a touch south of 1.1399/1.1376. A break lower from this point shines the spotlight on fresh demand priced in at 1.1218/1.1245. This was the decision point to break the 1.1239 December 31st high, therefore boasting significance.
H1 timeframe:
Overall, the euro wrapped up Wednesday flat against the buck, ahead of today’s ECB decision and press conference. Analysts expect the central bank to stand pat on rates.
The US dollar index ended Wednesday on top, fading session lows at 95.91. EUR/USD technical movement has the candles flagging beneath the 100-period SMA and sub 1.13. An interesting area of support forms around the 1.12 handle (yellow) between 1.1196/1.1247, comprised of Fibonacci studies.
Structures of Interest:
1.1196/1.1247 may hold downside today in the event it is brought into motion. Not only is it an attractive Fibonacci collection, the area is glued to the top edge of supply-turned demand at 1.1159/1.1233 on the daily timeframe and encapsulates H4 demand highlighted above at 1.1218/1.1245.
A rotation out of 1.1196/1.1247 has the underside of 1.1294/1.1271 to target, and the 1.13 handle on the H1. Much more than this is unlikely, owing to monthly price trading from supply.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of February witnessed EUR/USD revisit the upper limit of demand at 1.0488/1.0912 – a noteworthy area given the momentum derived from its base – and pencil in an appealing (bullish) hammer candlestick pattern.
Upside this month, currently trades +2.24%, manoeuvred the pair into demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352, though, as of current price, left long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) unchallenged. Price is seen retreating from the said area, opening up the possibility of a revisit to demand mentioned above at 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend remains in motion and has remained lower since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered outlook from previous analysis -
Snapping a three-day winning streak, daily price retreated from supply at 1.1540/1.1486 in recent trade, down more than 130 points. Supply-turned demand at 1.1159/1.1233 resides close by, intersecting closely with a familiar trend line support (1.0879), active since October 2019. A breach of the noted demand welcomes the 200-day SMA, currently circulating around the 1.11 neighbourhood.
What’s also notable from a technical perspective is the RSI indicator exiting overbought levels, fading peaks at 82.00, values not seen since March 2008.
H4 timeframe:
Supply-turned demand at 1.1294/1.1271 contained downside, guiding EUR/USD to a session high at 1.1366, a touch south of 1.1399/1.1376. A break lower from this point shines the spotlight on fresh demand priced in at 1.1218/1.1245. This was the decision point to break the 1.1239 December 31st high, therefore boasting significance.
H1 timeframe:
Overall, the euro wrapped up Wednesday flat against the buck, ahead of today’s ECB decision and press conference. Analysts expect the central bank to stand pat on rates.
The US dollar index ended Wednesday on top, fading session lows at 95.91. EUR/USD technical movement has the candles flagging beneath the 100-period SMA and sub 1.13. An interesting area of support forms around the 1.12 handle (yellow) between 1.1196/1.1247, comprised of Fibonacci studies.
Structures of Interest:
1.1196/1.1247 may hold downside today in the event it is brought into motion. Not only is it an attractive Fibonacci collection, the area is glued to the top edge of supply-turned demand at 1.1159/1.1233 on the daily timeframe and encapsulates H4 demand highlighted above at 1.1218/1.1245.
A rotation out of 1.1196/1.1247 has the underside of 1.1294/1.1271 to target, and the 1.13 handle on the H1. Much more than this is unlikely, owing to monthly price trading from supply.
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