asferruzzi
Short

EURTRY potential reversal to downside

FX:EURTRY   Euro / Neue Türkische Lira
Price action shows the buyers are loosing commitment to push price above the indicated resistance level for the past few weeks. The RSI is also showing divergence to the downside which means the previous buying momentum that was driving the uptrend is weakening, indicating in advance that a reversal may be looming. The other factor weighing in that will encourage sellers is the interest rate differentials between the EUR and TRY, the interest rates are heavily weighted in favour of buying TRY and selling EUR. For those that don't understand how interest rates are linked to currencies, a strategy used by businesses and financial institutions is to borrow money in the lower interest country and invest those funds in the higher interest rate country, making a profit from the interest rate differential, so in this case it would be favourable to sell the EUR and buy TRY, this applies downward pressure on this pair. All these factors are weighing towards a potential downward reversal however price action confirmation would be needed before entering a trade. Offcourse, all this could be wrong and it's just a consolidation before the next up move.
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