ETHUSD: Next Test Of Support In The 430s?

ETHUSD update: Price is hesitating just under the 494 to 518 minor resistance zone after taking out the bearish trend line. This is a tricky situation because at first glance, this market appears to be forming a lower high and following the recent "trend". What is not visible is the probability of the location of BTC which we have been reiterating is bullish and ultimately determines where all the coins go.

No matter how we analyze and examine this market, it is going to do what BTC decides to do. The only reason why I take the time to evaluate the levels and formations is because it is a way to quantify risk specifically for this market.

Since the bearish trend line has been taken out across all the major coins, at S.C., we are anticipating the next retrace to present a higher low. For this market, that means looking for a reversal pattern somewhere in the 430's.

If price falls through, then 392 is the reversal zone boundary to watch for bullish candle formations. Again this movement all depends on the sentiment and order flow of BTC.

In summary, the higher low that we are waiting for may not happen the way we anticipate. Especially in this holiday market, price may consolidate and squeeze a little higher unexpectedly.

At S.C. we are only interested in probabilities, especially on a broader magnitude. When these markets begin to align with our expectations, the next step is to refine the risk. One way we do that is using specific entry criteria that either the market will meet, or it will not. This is an imperfect process that does not catch every opportunity, but it serves a much more important purpose. It filters out a high frequency of trades with negative outcomes, preserves capital and allows for unemotional binary decision making. The benefits are definitely outweigh the occasional opportunity cost. What is your process?